Most recent Gallup has Americans split Democrat/Republican/Independent as 30%/30%/40% approximately. But when asked which way they lean it is 49% Republican and 42% Democratic. I don’t get how the Republican Party has picked up half of the independents but the Democrats picked up only half of the Republican numbers.
I can see where the Democratic Party could alienate a lot of people. I mean they ran Clinton and Biden. But over the last 4 years the Democratic Party has gotten its shit together. Hakeem Jeffries vs the dumpster fire that was the Republican House during the majority leader fiasco. Schumer as Senate Majority Leader with a 50+VP vs 50 majority. Biden deciding to step down and everyone rallying behind Harris - your most electable candidate since 2012. Meanwhile the MAGAs has seized control of the Republican Party, taken a dump on anything resembling democracy and demand that we implement their version of Christian Sharia Law.
So with that, please someone explain the Gallup results.
Apparently, a lot of people like that option, or at least like the fact that espousing it “owns the libs”. It’s basically a virtual diesel truck “rolling coal” sentiment against any suggestion that the United States ought to tone it down a bit and stop being such a raging hemorrhoid about starting a pair of losing wars and maybe think about being even slightly less egregious in is energy consumption. There is a shocking amount of “grievance politics” behind the MAGA movement, and the parallels to late Weimar-era Germany are stunning and disturbing to even a casual student of history.
Independents are generally likelier to lean (R) because the Republican brand has become highly toxic. Therefore an independent is likelier to be a closeted Republican who doesn’t want to embrace Trump publicly than a liberal.
There is no reason for a Democrat to be shy or ashamed of the (D) label, but there is much reason in the Trump era - or even before - for a Republican to not want to be called a Republican.
So-called “independents” have always broken heavily for the Rs. This is not a new phenomenon; it goes back decades.
IMO lots of people misunderstand the question. Darn few Americans are dues-paying members of either party. By that definition America is maybe 5% R, 5% D, 90% non-party member. Which is in stark contrast to many other countries with much higher paid party affiliation.
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Both then and now, there are many states encompassing many total voters where you do not need to state a party affiliation when registering to vote. These are the so-called “open primary” states. In other states you do need to state a party affiliation, so the state can deliver the correct “closed primary” party-specific ballot to you. In these states, choosing independent or none amounts to sitting out the primaries.
So there’s another definition of “independent” that many people hold to: “When I registered to vote, did I specify R or D or something else/nothing?”
Another definition of independent is “I don’t vote a straight party ballot; I pick and choose based on the most qualified person or certain aspects of their policy platform.”
All the above is background that goes to the question of how pollsters can report 40% independents. But doesn’t address why the stated 40% doesn’t split evenly R vs D.
Republicans have people who vote republican but refuse to call themselves that on BOTH sides, extreme right and center. Democrats only on the extreme left.
I’m not sure why you would expect, a priori, that Republican-leaners and Democratic-leaners would be equally likely to call themselves “Independent”. Lots of things in life are asymmetric. I suppose that, without other data, you might reasonably say that “independents” are equally likely to skew either way, but that’s not the same thing as saying that they wouldn’t be skewed.
Word. It’s a lot more embarrassing to be a Republican than a Democrat. Whoever heard of it being a sin to vote for a Democrat? Whereas the reverse is patent on its face.
ETA: Gobsmacked at the revelation that there are DUES for being in the Democratic Party. I’ve never gotten a bill.
There is no such thing as a dues-paying member of a political party in the USA. While parties certainly ask for money, it’s donations, not dues, and in no way required to be a member.
Many, but I think not all, states require naming a party or else registering as an independent in order to vote. This choice is public info. So in that sense one can be an official member of a party in the USA; but it’s got nothing to do with dues.
As you said, in some, but not all, states, if you want to be able to vote in anybody’s primary elections you need to choose a party when registering and will only be able to vote in that party’s primaries. Other states allow independents, or sometimes even people registered in a different party, to vote in primaries. In states requiring party registration to vote in a primary, that will push some who’d otherwise identify as independent to choose a party.
It’s possible that Republicans are more likely to think of themselves as “independent” than Democrats are, since the Republicans are currently the party of “rugged individualism” and the Democrats currently the party of joining together in citizenship.
Gallup is not necessarily the be all and end all of polling nowadays.
Here’s Pew’s take with trends.
The share of voters who identify as independent or something else is somewhat higher than in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, there are more “leaners” today than in the past. Currently, 15% of voters lean toward the Republican Party and 16% lean toward the Democratic Party. By comparison, in 1994, 27% of voters leaned toward either the GOP (15%) or the Democratic Party (12%).
Gallup has been polling since the 1930’s, and they historically have a good reputation.
However, Gallup no longer polls the horse race directly. So when final results are in, there is no way to compare survey results to the actual to get a reading on whether Gallup is still a good pollster.