It’s not just the regular right vs left polarity. In order to win the WH, a democrat needs to win over independent voters, and a lot of independents are wary of gun control legislation. Didn’t you notice how fast Obama backed off the subject in 2008?
Any democrat running for president with gun control being a central issue of his or her campaign would be toast. America fucking loves guns. A lot of democrats fucking love their guns too.
Your point isn’t entirely without merit. However, I think the independent voter is largely a mythical creature. For the presidential race, most people vote for their favorite party, whether or not they claim to be of that party. If you voted for Obama, you probably voted for Kerry, Gore, Clinton and so on back in time. If you voted for Romney, you probably voted for McCain, Bush, Dole, and Bush going back. If you are really really against gun control, you probably never voted for a Democrat for president.
I’ll grant that if a Democrat ever said he favors stricter gun control and ran for president, he would lose some votes. But by and large I think they’d be in states he wouldn’t carry anyway. Sure, he’d lose votes in Wyoming and Texas. Who cares? And he might lose some in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but not nearly enough to lose the state. As issues go, I don’t see guns as a deal breaker simply because the voters are already divided by party on this matter.
As much as I hate to defend adaher, there is an interesting argument here. Obama and Clinton lost the gun enthusiasts, but were deeply in the pocket of major financial interests almost from the time they started their presidential bids.
It’s not a one-dimensional argument. Maybe to win as a populist without the support of the Wall Street crooks, one needs some gun owners on one’s side as well.
Now, that said, a Democrat winning a question of getting out the vote. And since Republicans and Democrats are split on “social issues,” it’s alternatively possible that Democrats need the gun* control* vote to win.
So absent some pretty finely differentiated data, I’m going to say unproven.
I can’t imagine Warren losing any states that Obama one - I think she would draw in some higher percentage of female votes than Obama did, and her liberal street cred would get some dems off their asses. Also, she does well with the anti-Wall Street rhetoric - it’s very populist and would pull in some moderates and swing voters that feel that the bankers have gotten away with murder and Main Street has taken it in the shorts.
And her anti-gun stance isn’t going to really make much of a net difference from Obama - doubt there were too many gun nuts who pulled the lever for him anyway.
Read the article – jobs is what this is about.
Ted Cruz isn’t going to win Wall Street either. Remember that he doesn’t want to raise the U.S. debt limit, which would be catastrophic to Wall Street. His suicidal economic views make Warren look like Alan Greenspan.
Physically.
Well, that’s my point. They had a (D) after their names, which for gun enthusiasts stands for “(D)on’t vote for this guy”.
That assumes that Warren can get Americans to blame Wall Street for their problems.
Wall Street isn’t exactly beloved right now.
Everyone is a taxpayer. Everyone is a “benefit” recipient (beneficiary of public spending). Everyone believes that certain combinations of taxes and spending are to their net advantage.
That party loyalty is “probably” consistent for “most” people may be true, but it does not follow that independent/swing voters do not exist, or do not make a difference. Why do you think results varied between the candidates you listed, if party vote was so fixed for everyone?
Obviously some exist, but varying turnout is probably much more of a factor.
What of these have Republicans done better than Democrats? Who is against investment in infrastructure, other than the trivial Keystone Pipeline? Who consistently opposed extending unemployment benefits for those still looking for work? If jobs is your main priority, why would you vote Republican?
Keeping families safe- who stonewalled the appointment of a Surgeon General? Whose intransigence brought forth the sequester that made cuts to the military? Which party was in office that ignored intelligence leading up to 9/11? Which party was in office and did nothing when a hurricane drowned a major American city? If keeping families safe is your priority, why would you vote Republican?
As for income taxes, I’ll grant the Republicans want to lower them. Even when we can’t afford to. But they want to lower them for the wealthy. Sure, the poor get a scrap of gristle and bone while the wealthy get the prime cut. But Republicans don’t mind raising income tax one bit, because it’s regressive as hell. They like to chip away at the EIC. They don’t mind regressive cigarette and liquor taxes at all. So if taxes are your priority, why vote Republican?
I suspect Warren would win, but it might be close. Even given Dems’ current built-in advantage in the Electoral College and the generally-good economic outlook leading up to 2016, the voters tend to favor the “out” party after the other has held the White House for two terms.
[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
But Republicans don’t mind raising income tax one bit, because it’s regressive as hell.
[/QUOTE]
The federal income tax is regressive? What are you talking about?
Regards,
Shodan
It was a mis-type on my part. I meant sales tax. Thank you for letting me know.
I think that the point is that Democrats have been winning without gun rights voters but with Wall Street money. If Warren alienates Wall Street, what replaces Wall Street support? Clearly not gun rights voters. So that may make it harder.
All of this is moot. Warren doesn’t seem to want to be promoted to the level of her own incompetence–unlike Obama eight years ago.
Rafael Edward Cruz has shown leadership. Granted, it was in service of dumb ideas, but he has the career theory down. If he didn’t look so much like a Mesoamerican native, he’d have a real shot of destroying this country.
Who do you think got more campaign contributions from Wall Street in 2012 - Obama or Romney?
That should not be difficult.