Returning to the OP with some factual (if anecdotal) info …
I flew the F-16A in the USAF back when there were still a few F-4s left to fight against. I had the chance to fight them fairly often, late model F-4Fs with all the best mods the USAF ever put on them (which isn’t saying much).
Short version: Killing F-4s was slightly harder than killing transports, but not much. And I wasn’t particularly spectacular as an F16 pilot, more Captain Average than Maverick.
Long version:
Now in the A-model F16 we did not have any radar-guided missile, while the F-4 at that time carried the AIM-7F Sparrow. So if the Rules of Engagement (ROE) permitted them to shoot me before seeing me with their eyes to ID who/what I was, well then sometimes they could take me out before I could get in close enough to use my AIM9-L or M Sidewinder heatseakers or gun.
They also carried the much less capable Sdewinder AIM-9P version and essentially the same gun as the F-16. The AIM-9P was essentially limited to attacks from the rear, whereas the AIM9-L/M could be used head-on.
So absent the radar missile, they had to dogfight to get me, while I could shoot them in the face as we closed, and if somehow that didn’t work, then we’d wrap it up into the dogfight to finish them off.
Once in the dogfight, they had a lot less G capability and a lot less power. And a lot less visibility out of the cockpit.
And they were huge and usually trailed smoke & I was tiny and invisible with no smoke trail.
It normally didn’t take long, 2 minutes tops, to kill them. And I was in no particular danger from them at any time.
Finally, their radar was a LOT worse than ours, and that drives the AIM-9 missile aiming / range computation and the gunsight.
So even if somehow they got behind me they were much less likely to actually be able to hit me with ordnance than if the roles were reversed with the exact same geometry.
In real combat, as opposed to peacetime practice, most kills are unobserved. The loser is flying along unaware that anything’s amiss until he suddenly blows up. And an F-4 could certainly sneak up on an unsuspecting F-16 driver, provided the F-16 was “cooperating” by exposing himself to enemy ground control radar, or was ignoring the warning signals from the F-4’s radar.
But in setup engagements where both guys knew the other one was out there, and the F-4 didn’t have, or couldn’t use, radar-guided missiles, then I’d expect the F-16 to win 19 out of 20 and lose the 20th because he misjudged a turn & hit the ground.
Now that F-4 vs F-16A. When I was flying the Navy had just gotten their first F/A-18As.
I only fought F/A-18s a couple of times but my limited experience was that they were essentially comparable to us in maneuverability and power, with the same weapons (AIM-9L/M & gun), similar overall ease of use, and somewhat better radar. They had a LOT better manueverability at slow speeds, but getting slow in a fighter is already real bad for your longevity. We had some advantages in G-rates at higher speeds and in visibility.
So overall, most times the better pilot won regardless of which airplane he was flying. For evenly matched pilots in a 1-on-1 scenario, the F/A-18 would usually win if the fight got long, while the F-16 would win if he played his opening moves right. I’d handicap exactly evenly matched pilots at 60% for the F/A-18, 40% for the F-16.
Now the F/A-18A did have the big stick of carrying the AIM-7M longer-range radar-guided missile, but as a practical matter, most times the ROE prevented its use. But if they could fire AIM-7s freely, they could eat our lunch most times.
The AIM-7M on the F/A-18 coupled with its radar was a vastly more effective weapon than the AIM-7F on the F-4 coupled to its radar.
Now the modern F/A-18C & soon-to-be-released F/A-18E have the even better AIM-120 AMRAAM radar missile, better radar and supposedly better handling and power, as well as even better radars and other avionics.
Overall, there’s just no comparison in tactical effectiveness between the late model F/A-18 and the F4. Imagine a Knight on horseback with a lance and sword against a Marine with an M-16 with the underbarrel M203 grenade launcher. Not a fair fight; not even close. Unless the Marine is asleep, in which case he’s dead.
LSLGuy
p.s. Combat is a team endeavor. Discussions about how one man/machine would fare against another in an isolated arena are inherently very artificial. Good tactics and good teamwork can overcome a lot of deficiencies in individual capability.
The USA nowadays (and even in the '80s when I was doing this) is enjoying the synergistic result of applying excellent machines with excellent men with excellent teamwork with excellent tactics, oh yeah, in overwhelming numbers. The other guys have been weak in all 5 areas.