Part of the problem is precisely - what is rape? Anyone can harken back to their teen years and that silly game where his hand moves up or down and she removes it, over and over until it stays… etc.
Where does that technically fall in this? If she moves it away once, it’s no consent to try further? She’s always free to leave…
Not being privy to female though processes, I assume many women are conflicted about what they should or should not do, impulses get the better of them that they regret later.
The trouble with many accusations is they take on a life of their own. Many people say things they regret later. What happens between two people is more often than not a he-said-she-said situation with a minimum of impartial definitive evidence.
Another thing is that the traditional image of a rapist as some weirdo lurkig in the shadows is still taught, perhaps more than ever, with the street-proofing education of children; so women are still surprised and conflicted when faced with reality, which is that it is likely an acquaintance or even a family member.
So when some friendly figure suddenly does something they did not expect, I suspect the reporting rate is still quite low even with all the modern teaching about “it’s not your fault”. Reporting someone of your social group for a felony crime has ineveitable repercussions and will make people choose sides. The victim is going to wonder “how much did I invite this?” and indulge in self-guilt, despite all the education about “it’s not your fault”.
People can be nasty. When someone wants to get even and has not experienced the trauma, I suppose with the modern education about “it’s not your fault” some women have no inhibitions about making false claims.
So what we also should ask statistically is…
-how much is falsely reported as sexual assault when absolutely nothing close to such an encounter happened? (As seems to be the case in the Duke episode?)
-how often is a consensual encounter later reported as rape?
I guess you can classify those according to the accused’s response. Then it boils down to believability and consistency of stories, I suppose. And as I said, nobody will ever really know except those two.