Ferguson Effect

[HurricaneDitka]

BTW, since we’re talking about cameras and police shootings, we got a win today: that murderous sonofabitch Patrick Feaster got convicted of manslaughter

[iiandyiiii]

Here’s a discussion of comparable support for the civil rights movement (at the time) vs BLM now.

[Navy_draftee]

@iiandyiiii

Here’s a discussion of comparable support for the civil rights movement (at the time) vs BLM now.

apples to oranges

The civil rights movement used FACTS to rally their supporters.

Black Lives Matter relies on lies…( FERGUSON )“hands up, don’t shoot”…( Minnesota )" handcuffed while shot "

[iiandyiiii]

@Navy_draftee

apples to oranges

The civil rights movement used FACTS to rally their supporters.

Black Lives Matter relies on lies…( FERGUSON )“hands up, don’t shoot”…( Minnesota )" handcuffed while shot "

BLM relies on facts like statistically disparate treatment of black people by law enforcement. They might utilize symbolic slogans, but they aren’t just based on a single incident… and the incidents you refer to weren’t proven conclusively to be false, just that there may not have been enough evidence for criminal proceedings.

In any case, about the same percentage oppose BLM now as opposed the civil rights movement in the 60s, and critics used similar reasons.

BLM has done a lot of good, like greatly increasing usage of body cameras, in addition to other police reforms in certain cities. Many police departments are working with BLM supporters to institute policy and procedural reforms.

[Navy_draftee]

@iiandyiiii

BLM relies on facts like statistically disparate treatment of black people by law enforcement. They might utilize symbolic slogans, but they aren’t just based on a single incident… and the incidents you refer to weren’t proven conclusively to be false, just that there may not have been enough evidence for criminal proceedings.

In any case, about the same percentage oppose BLM now as opposed the civil rights movement in the 60s, and critics used similar reasons.

BLM has done a lot of good, like greatly increasing usage of body cameras, in addition to other police reforms in certain cities. Many police departments are working with BLM supporters to institute policy and procedural reforms.

…"shot while handcuffed "…WAS proven to be a lie as the forensic evidence made the claim by the racist HATE group ( Black Lives Matter) an impossibility !

[iiandyiiii]

@Navy_draftee

…"shot while handcuffed "…WAS proven to be a lie as the forensic evidence made the claim by the racist HATE group ( Black Lives Matter) an impossibility !

Got a cite for that? Not that it really matters since it’s not based on a single incident.

Also, tell me about your feelings on the Jews. And/or “white genocide”. Maybe that will give me a better understanding of where you’re coming from.

[Damuri_Ajashi]

@iiandyiiii

Trump and surrogates have encouraged or excused violence.

So you compare BLM to Trump (with mixed results considering that Trump has never actually rioted or looted), doesn’t that tell you something about BLM?

I would feel much, much safer at a BLM protest (and have felt entirely safe at the 1 protest I did attend) then at a Trump rally (I’m a very bad liar, and I would undoubtedly be “exposed” as a Trump opponent).

Here are a couple of examples of Tea Party violence. There are more and they are rather easily found (along with many threats of violence). Funny how the Tea Party movement wasn’t tarred as violent based on these examples, huh?

These are not examples of riots or looting.

One of your links says that the violence broke out when neoNazis tried to crash their party and that a tea partier was injured by a union member counter-protester (both sides of that conflict claim the other guy started it.

The other link (you realize that you linked to a conservative talk radio show website, right?) shows that a news reporter was punched by a union counter-protester and an Americans for Prosperity tent was destroyed by counter-protesters.

Once again, these are not examples of riots or looting.

I’m talking just from memory about all the different protests, rallies, and the like I’ve seen in DC and the surrounding area, in person and on the news, over the last few years. I don’t recall any violence. But I don’t have a cite.

I was asaking how you came up with that very high number.

But if you are having trouble locating examples of BLM rioting and looting would you like some cites to some of the BLM riots and looting?

She was wrong. Various Tea Party leaders, and Trump himself (along with surrogates), have made threats or advocated/excused violence. They were wrong too.

Yes, I am willing to concede that BLM might be as bad as Trump in its irrational hysteria with a kernal of truth that is getting drowned out by a lot of asshattery.

[Damuri_Ajashi]

@iiandyiiii

Some more examples of Tea Party threats and actual violence.

To be clear, I’m not saying that the Tea Party is a violent movement – just that there’s no more reason to slander the wider BLM movement as violent than there is for the Tea Party.

So just show me the videos of the Tea Party riots and looting. Threats of violence against politicians are wrong but its not the same as actual riots and looting. Just lacks that extra spice.

[Damuri_Ajashi]

@iiandyiiii

BLM relies on facts like statistically disparate treatment of black people by law enforcement. They might utilize symbolic slogans, but they aren’t just based on a single incident… and the incidents you refer to weren’t proven conclusively to be false, just that there may not have been enough evidence for criminal proceedings.

I don’t know about the handcuff incident but I took a long hard look at the Michael Brown evidence after the dust settled and it really looks like the officer was jstufied in shooting Michael Brown. There were other problems in the community and I know St. Louis well enough to know that it has a serious race problem but Michael Brown was just the wrong martyr for the cause. You know Rosa Parks was not the first black woman to refuse to get to the back of the bus, right? It was a pregnant teenager.

You don’t honestly think that statistically disparate treatment (which is probably more driven by unconscious bias than intentional racism) is the same thing as segregation and Jim Crow, do you? I was under the impression that the statistical science is still under review.

In any case, about the same percentage oppose BLM now as opposed the civil rights movement in the 60s, and critics used similar reasons.

BLM has done a lot of good, like greatly increasing usage of body cameras, in addition to other police reforms in certain cities. Many police departments are working with BLM supporters to institute policy and procedural reforms.

Sure, they are absolutely capable of doing a lot of good but their cause is undermined by violence and that violence is on their heads.

[iiandyiiii]

@Damuri_Ajashi

You don’t honestly think that statistically disparate treatment (which is probably more driven by unconscious bias than intentional racism) is the same thing as segregation and Jim Crow, do you? I was under the impression that the statistical science is still under review.

It’s not the same thing, and it’s not fully understood, but I think it’s more than just unconscious bias – sentencing disparities and using tickets and fees to raise revenue rather than serve and protect are two examples of policies that strongly and disparately negatively affect black Americans in many communities.

Sure, they are absolutely capable of doing a lot of good but their cause is undermined by violence and that violence is on their heads.

The violence hurts their cause, but I think it’s on the heads of those committing it, and not on the vast majority of BLM leaders and supporters who repudiate violence without exception.

[Navy_draftee]

@iiandyiiii

It’s not the same thing, and it’s not fully understood, but I think it’s more than just unconscious bias – sentencing disparities and using tickets and fees to raise revenue rather than serve and protect are two examples of policies that strongly and disparately negatively affect black Americans in many communities.

The violence hurts their cause, but I think it’s on the heads of those committing it, and not on the vast majority of BLM leaders and supporters who repudiate violence without exception.

I have never seen a video of Black Lives Matter protestors , while chanting death threats to cops, being told to “shut up” by other Black Lives Matter protestors

[Damuri_Ajashi]

@iiandyiiii

It’s not the same thing, and it’s not fully understood, but I think it’s more than just unconscious bias – sentencing disparities and using tickets and fees to raise revenue rather than serve and protect are two examples of policies that strongly and disparately negatively affect black Americans in many communities.

I put things like literacy tests and voter ID laws in a different category of malice than laws that unintentionally have disproportionate impact. I don’t think anyone is trying to impoverish blacks with tickets and fees even if that is the unintended result.

The violence hurts their cause, but I think it’s on the heads of those committing it, and not on the vast majority of BLM leaders and supporters who repudiate violence without exception.

I think the leaders share some responsibility for not keeping shit under control. It doesn’t make them wrong but it does make them less right.

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

@Richard_Parker

The FBI released the latest data on police officer safety today.

2015 was one of the safest years on record in terms of both injurious assaults and deaths, and significantly safer than 2014, which was safer than 2013.

The Ferguson Effect would account for an increase in police safety. The thinking of many in law enforcement is that police are in increased fear for their safety and are therefore less likely to confront potential criminals. So police safety is enhanced.

What also happens is that civilian safety is lessened. as a result of the shift in police tactics. This is also something that happened lately. Can’t conclusively say that it’s a result of the Ferguson Effect, but it’s certainly consistent with it.

[Richard_Parker]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

What also happens is that civilian safety is lessened. as a result of the shift in police tactics. This is also something that happened lately.

Not really.

There has been a short-term uptick in murder, but it almost entirely attributable to Chicago gang violence. Is your thesis that the Ferguson effect is happening solely in Chicago?

The truth is that if police disengaging makes police safer and crime rates continue to drop, then it’s a win-win.

[Richard_Parker]

Forgive me. “Almost entirely” is a bit hyperbolic. Chicago accounted for 234 of the 496 additional murders in 2015.

But violent crime and crime overall is about the same as pre-Ferguson levels, which is a 30-year low. Drawing conclusions from the murder rate, especially over the short-term, is usually misleading because there are relatively few murders and the rate can be greatly affected by trends and events that are not national in scale.

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

@Richard_Parker

Not really.

There has been a short-term uptick in murder, but it almost entirely attributable to Chicago gang violence. Is your thesis that the Ferguson effect is happening solely in Chicago?

Your claim appears to be incorrect, and at best it’s highly misleading.

Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. Cities

Cities across the nation are seeing a startling rise in murders after years of declines, and few places have witnessed a shift as precipitous as this city. With the summer not yet over, 104 people have been killed this year — after 86 homicides in all of 2014.

More than 30 other cities have also reported increases in violence from a year ago. In New Orleans, 120 people had been killed by late August, compared with 98 during the same period a year earlier. In Baltimore, homicides had hit 215, up from 138 at the same point in 2014. In Washington, the toll was 105, compared with 73 people a year ago. And in St. Louis, 136 people had been killed this year, a 60 percent rise from the 85 murders the city had by the same time last year.

Law enforcement experts say disparate factors are at play in different cities, though no one is claiming to know for sure why murder rates are climbing. Some officials say intense national scrutiny of the use of force by the police has made officers less aggressive and emboldened criminals, though many experts dispute that theory.

[Richard_Parker]

No, you’re the one being misled. You should read some actual analysis of the crime numbers.

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

@Richard_Parker

But violent crime and crime overall is about the same as pre-Ferguson levels, which is a 30-year low. Drawing conclusions from the murder rate, especially over the short-term, is usually misleading because there are relatively few murders and the rate can be greatly affected by trends and events that are not national in scale.

The same applies to this claim.

FBI: Murders and other violent crimes increased last year

The number of violent crimes committed across the country was up in the first half of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier, with increases seen across the country and spanning different types of crimes, federal authorities said Tuesday.

The numbers of murders, rapes, assaults and robberies were all up over the first six months of 2015. Overall violent crime was up 1.7 percent, an increase that followed two consecutive years of declines, according to the FBI.

[Richard_Parker]

No, you’re the one being misled. You should read some actual analysis of the crime numbers.

The crime rate in the 30 largest cities for 2016 is nearly unchanged from 2015. It has increased in some places and decreased in others.

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

Did you read your own cite?

According to that cite, overall violent crime is projected to go up 5.5% in 2016 over 2015 (this is on top of the above-noted cites which were about 2015 over 2014) and murders up 13.1%.