Fermi Paradox. What am I missing?

Fair enough but it still makes sense to do. If you are accelerating only fuel and not all the other stuff a generation ship needs there is a fuel saving to be had.

Building a ship that carries ALL the fuel at the start would be ridiculous and expensive and impractically massive.

Split it up…send the fuel ahead and catch up. You could even use things like light sails and laser pushed ships at the start. Not for all of the trip but to mitigate the fuel cost of the whole trip.

If you are working on a thousand year timeline (see post #12) then why not? Would make sense.

I am not as smart as you and I am not a rocket scientist but calling BS on this.

That is an improbably big number to get to 1% light speed for 1000Kg.

As in that is way more than the mass of Earth. Way, way, WAY more.

Earth’s mass is 597,200,000,000,000,000,000,000 Kg

Fuel ships don’t save you much.

Proxima Centauri b is the closest known “terrestrial planet” and is ~4.224 light years away.

If you could make a liquid hydrogen/oxygen engine the mass of the earth (5.972 × 10^24 kg) you could accelerate a 1000 kg payload to 2,206 km/s. Even if you ignore the acceleration time and start your trip at 2,206 km/s it would take 574 years to get there.

Even a 1 kg payload would only be going 2,510 km/s and would take 505 years so with even with sub-CubeSats size payloads the time scales are huge. A delta of 56 km/s isn’t much more speed.

Plus you would either have to stop or at least match the velocity of the fuel ship to rendezvous which is hard enough in low earth orbit where you don’t even have to consider issues like spacetime curvature and the fact that the entire concept of ‘now’ is a fiction that doesn’t work outside of your local area. You can compensate but you have to add a lot of fuel to do so especially when you are trying to fly the shortest path to an object that is moving at a 22.2 km/s radially like Proxima Centauri.

The hop by hop method would require an investment that wouldn’t pay off for thousands of years and yet any major failure would result in complete loss.

We may find new physics to allow for it, but light sails aren’t there yet. They “think” that they can use graphene but it needs to simultaneously be strong enough to deal with 1000 g acceleration and deal with radiation which is an issue for graphene because it is very good at absorbing radiation.

We were talking about putting men on the moon and Mars permanently the other day and a was surprised at the amount of apathy and skepticism I saw there. I get a strong feeling quite a few people don’t think our species ensured survival is really all that important, because that is gonna require getting off this planet. If you think colonizing space is only good for national dick waving and making money I can see that. If the aliens are like that too it could explain why we haven’t seen any, no paradox required.

You don’t need to be smart, nor am I necessarily smarter I just happen to know about the ideal rocket law. I offered my formula and you can check my work. While this page from NASA mostly covers getting off earth the same concepts apply.

The Tyranny of the Rocket Equation

Here is another link from Scientific American dealing specifically with interstellar travel.

Why Chemical Rockets and Interstellar Travel Don’t Mix

Note that they chose to go to 4.4% the speed of light thus reaching a much much higher number:

And they are talking about sending a toothpick! in 100 years.

The GQ resposne to this is that there are many questionable embedded assumptions to this idea that “getting off the earth” is necessary for the human survival in any time frame that is meaningful to the actual living human beings today, including the technology for the multi-generation survival in the closed artificial habitats given it is so far not even possible to run such things for a meaningful time period on the earth itself.

Except for the largely white boy highest upper income country space science fiction nerds who assume the conclusion - for the billions of other humans, a rational better use of the current resources is a focus on improvement of sustainable economic production from the energy generation to the biological science for improved plant and other production. Making in the next 2-5 generations the lifeboat earth sustainable is much more rational.

If you are a person in a Middle Income or a Lower Income or even a 2nd tier upper income country, the idea that “species survival” by the planetary colonization is relevant is irrational at this time.

Heck, I would argue that it is almost always totally irrational. There is never any sort of motivation that makes sense. In any sort of understandable time frame the biggest threat to our species is ourselves. Eventually the sun will turn into a red giant, and the planet will be uninhabitable. However, by then there is no chance whatsoever that the human race will exist in any form that resembles us, whether it colonises other planets or not.

Given the technological and energy challenges needed to mount any sort of colonisation, it is hard to imagine the effort would not always be better spent closer to home. Sending colonists out to another planet will not help anyone left behind. There is no chance for trade, and even communication is ridiculously limited. Colonists are simply people who leave forever at insane expense. (Unless you come up with a Marching Morons scenario. Which is space colonisation with a different benefit :eek: ) Colonisation is either funded by governments for profit, or self funded to escape. Maybe some far off time will see technology and personal wealth reach the point where private individuals could fund an interstellar migration for themselves. But it seems doubtful. And this assumes sci-fi tech.

This is a surprisingly common thread on the Dope: “The Fermi paradox is not really a paradox, because I can think of some reason why we don’t see aliens”*
So could Enrico Fermi. The point of the paradox is that yes, of course there is some reason we don’t see aliens. But right now, we don’t know which, if any, of our speculative reasons are correct. None on their own are decisive.

e.g.
On the whole thing of how much fuel it would take to propel 1000kg…firstly it’s making assumptions about what kind of vehicle must necessarily be used: why not a solar sail for example? But also it’s making assumptions about the payload: instead of generational starships, why not just self-replicating probes? I would wager humans would have the technological means to create such a plague of probes within the next 1000 years (in fact I think much sooner but let’s be conservative).
So, why don’t we see such probes? Answer: we don’t know yet.

  • In the case of this thread, actually the OP seems to just be asking the question, and it’s actually some of the responses that follow the pattern of missing the point of the Fermi Paradox

Did you bother running these numbers with :

a. The best rocket engine currently demonstrated in a lab (19,300 ISP)
b. A reasonably conservative estimate of fusion engine performance (about 1 million ISP)
c. A reasonably conservative estimate of antimatter-pion performance. (Ve = 10% C)

Assuming the space shuttle main engine…would be like an aviation scientist in 1880 dismissing heavier than air flight by assuming the power source was a riverboat steam engine. A meaningless and frankly ignorant estimate.

It helps if you don’t get too locked into the idea of it being a ship.

I think the intermediate step will be building inhabited bases on the moon and other planets like Mars. And building inhabited stations in orbit.

I don’t think anybody would argue that this would require impossible technology or an impossible amount of resources. (In fact, it would probably be a pursuit of the resources available off planet that would drive the construction of these projects.) It’s not inconceivable that in a thousand years, there may be a substantial population of humans living out in space, some of whom will have been out there for generations.

And then, once you’ve established this offworld population, the next step is to start moving some of their residences. An inhabited station that’s orbiting around a planet for two hundred years isn’t all that far from an inhabited station that’s on a two hundred year trip between two stars.

I think it’s considered a paradox because a lot of astronomers consider colonization of the universe by advanced civilizations a forgone conclusion.

This guy, for example: https://astronomy.osu.edu/people/pogge.1
(He has an excellent lecture series podcast. Highly recommended)

Therefore if there were other abvanced life out there, of course we would know it by now. I don’t subscribe to this idea. There are too many problems to overcome that are usually handwaved away. But it is assumed by a number of scientists.

Did you notice that the “Dual-Stage 4-Grid” needs 250 Kw of power to generate 0.61 N or ~.4 ft-lbs of thrust? It is efficient, but would take 1000’s of years to make that same trip and the power requirements don’t work without large fusion reactors outside of the solar system. Juno had to have 3 30x8 foot solar arrays to make 500w at Jupiter as an example to show how impractical solar becomes. But really it is not useful for human space flight.

As for self-sustaining fusion engines and untested theoretical designs are not counter to my statements above about if we find new physics or resorting by resorting to science fiction.

Umm, nuclear pulse is the poor man’s self-sustaining fusion engine.

And powering a DS4G, we could discuss that after you check the numbers. If you can’t even get out your calculator I’m going to assume you’re insufficiently interested in the debate. You’ve already decided on your position and thus discussing this further is pointless.

I think I agree, but I was trying to avoid the GD statement.

But that’s all anyone is ever pointing out when they note that’s it’s only a paradox in the looser sense of an unresolved question with multiple possible resolutions. A paradox construed more strictly is something inherently self-contradictory.

I think there are compelling reasons for us to colonize a second planet, to hedge against catastrophe. I seem to remember Carl Sagan or Asimov or someone talking about this?

In principle, I think one can make a strong case for expending resources to hedge against existential risks that might wipe out our entire species, even if the risks are low probability, and even if it’s a strict either-or choice vs expending those resources to save the lives of some people with much greater risk of death today. That is to say - if there were a strict either-or choice between funding a NASA program to deflect asteroids vs aid for a Third World famine. The ethical justification is that the entire future of our species might mean millions or even billions of years, colonization and the entire galaxy, untold trillions of lives or sentient AIs. Even if that’s low probability, the expected number of future lives at stake can still be a huge number.

But, in practice, as you say the biggest threat to our species right now is ourselves, we can’t even take straightforward steps to ameliorate climate change, so it’s never really and either-or choice like this.

This isn’t GD, but why do you expect me to do all of your math? As this is GQ where are your cites?

Let me provide some that at least fall in in the direction of your claims although they are speculative and far less ambitious.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242163494_Veryhighdelta-Vmissionstotheedgeofthesolarsystemand_beyondenabledbythedual-stage4-gridionthrusterconcept

200AU is only 0.0031625 light years or in other words they are talking about doubling the travel speed of Voyager 1 which isn’t fast enough.

As acceleration is so slow one can’t ignore it in this case despite me giving “optimistic” numbers with the above chemical case due to the much larger Nm forces.

Rough calculations with the 8-ton (8,800kg) example above, ignoring mass drops would result in 0.000855 m/s[sup]2[/sup] acceleration rate in that case. So to accelerate to 1% of the speed of light would require ~1111 years and you would have to decelerate for half your trip too.

And as that paper calls out “However, the development of a low specific mass space nuclear reactor would be required.” is a problem and low specific mass nuclear reactors will have shielding issues that are a barrier to human travel. Also note those numbers only have a short thrust time as in one example 2.52 years.

I would provide a cite on shielding requirements but the government shutdown is thwarting me.

Also note that paper assumes a reactor power density of 2 kg/kW when the latest NASA tests only reach ~35.6 kg/kW, which is an order of magnitude improvement! I tried to find data that demonstrated I am in error, how about you provide a cite that provides real world, non-speculative or at least near term practical DS4G solutions for human interstellar travel.

In general DS4G and other Ion solutions trade speed for efficiency over chemical rockets to make missions practical. But they almost always do so with reduced speed outside of the exception of when they are compared to unaccelerated missions. They allow for wider launch windows and lower radiation doses by avoiding a close Jupiter boost but do not dramatically increase maximum speed for intersystem interstellar travel right now.

CORRECTION: I screwed up the power density calcs and units, ignore that part as I switched units and messed up a cut and paste.

Here is a cite from the KRUSTY which will show the information based on the “state of the art”

But current technology related to radioisotope and solar power sources do not meet the needs for propulsion for sub-millennial trips to other systems today. They will have other applications for needs in and near our solar system though.

Again, people should keep working on these ideas, but nothing about the Fermi Paradox or the Drake equation proves we are alone in the universe. They just show that if several very speculative assumptions hold true we should have seen them.

The problem with the notion of “coloniz[ing] a second planet,” stems from the disconnect between what the general public imagines extrasolar planets to be like (based upon decades of science fiction showing humans in spandex onesies finding habitable “M-class” planets all over the place) and what planetologists and ecologists actually know about the evolution of our planet; specifically, that our planet is habitable (for us) because of a very long history of development and modification of the biosphere, which includes every aspect of the planet which supports life, from the just-so atmosphere (thick enough to protect us from charged particle and high energy cosmic radiation but transparent enough to allow just the right amount of electromagnetic radiation to keep the surface of the planet in a delicate thermal balance), to the biome of interconnected species, to the hydrosphere which continually purifies and delivers water to where it is needed, to the deep organic lithosphere which creates a rich organic substrate that supports all planet life. Our planet would not have supported most modern surface animal life even as much as 600 million years ago, and the odds of finding a world that will have developed a biosphere analogous to our own, with just the right balance of atmospheric oxygen, not too much carbon dioxide, et cetera is wildly unlikely. Nor is “terraforming” a planet–converting it to closely resemble the surface environment of the Earth–very likely given the massively interconnected and interdependent systems required to sustain it. By the time we might have the hypothetical energy and skill to terraform a planet human civilization (or more likely, whatever has replaced it) will have long since adapted to living in space and making more efficient use of materials and mass than to thinly array itself across the unprotected surface of a planet with the vast wealth of resources wholly inaccessible below the crust.

The general public also has very unrealistic notions about space travel and exploration. The expectation of being able to achieve even modest fractions of the speed of light is belied by the rocket equation (which rat avatar has referenced) which makes it prohibitive to even achieve, much less carry sufficient propellant to decelerate from, speeds of even 0.01c. Even using the temperatures developed in nuclear fusion would not give sufficient specific impulse to be able to travel between stars within a human lifetime. (See [POST=18236632]Is there ANY realistic mode of interstellar travel?[/POST] for more discussion, which I won’t repeat here.) And if you did have a source of energy (e.g. antimatter) capable of exceeding those temperatures to reach much higher specific impulse, you’d find yourself facing an even more fundamental problem; the thermodynamics of rejecting the waste heat from such an energetic transfer would rapidly heat your spacecraft to incandescence. Even positing some kind of “sleeper ark” ship which is vastly beyond any capability to keep a complex mechanical system running for thousands of years or being able to suspend and reanimate mammals, actually exploring interstellar space would take massive resources and effort just to go a few hundred light years in the span of millions of years, which is not only magnitudes longer than any human society has continuously operated, but actually longer than humanity has actually existed.

As for the Fermi paradox, the assumption is that some kind of alien civilization will expand and send out detectable signals, either deliberately toward us, or incidentally as they communicate between one another, or else construct cosmic megastructures which would be visible to our observations, all within a timeframe of our own evolution as a technological species capable of making detailed observation of stars in our local interstellar neighborhood, is highly restrictive. This is actually a large set of different assumptions, from the idea that we would be able to detect alien communications, to the ability for an interstellar civilization to maintain some continuity over eons without diverging, to the idea that a species would be technically, socially, and evolutionarily static over such a period instead of evolving beyond technology and science as we know it. Civilizations could have come and gone hundreds of millions of years before modern humans even existed on Earth, and there could literally be millions of worlds inhabited by intelligent technological civilizations in our galaxy alone, and yet so distantly separated that we would never detect them and vice versa even assuming plausible advances in observation capability.

The idea of aliens constructing a Dyson sphere, for instance, assumes that an alien society would desire to collect the maximum amount of energy from their star; however, that might make as much sense as people today constructing some kind of boiler next to a bonfire in order to generate electrical power; an advanced technological society may be able to tap into sources of energy that vastly dwarf that created by the gravitationally driven fusion of stars, e.g. from direct control of intranuclear forces, or to some kind of quantum base state, or something even beyond our wildest speculations from known physics. It may make no sense for an advanced species to put the energy into building the structure and machinery for a swarm of solar-powered satellites if they can tap into much greater and more accessible energy. Similarly, an advanced species with a vast interstellar civilization will likely not bother communicating using radio frequency signals (which are inherently limited in distance and absorbed by the interstellar medium) if they can directly control and produce modulated gravitational waves, which are essentially unlimited in distance.

The so-called Fermi paradox is really just an expression of what we do not know about how an alien civilization could develop and what technologies they might have that are well beyond what we can imagine. It is not any reason to believe that extraterrestrial life is rare. Nor should we have any expectation that even if we were to detect intelligent life, that we would be able to communicate on anything but a very primitive level given the fundamental differences in cognitive evolution.

Stranger

Well most things called a “paradox” are not paradoxes in the strict sense. I would agree with you that the name “Fermi Paradox” is misleading.
But I would disagree that that is “all anyone is ever pointing out”. A lot of people seem to think that if they can think of a plausible reason why we haven’t seen ET then the FP is solved, or invalid.