They never call, they never write.
Per the article below it’s highly probable that other intelligent species are out there, and at least some are aware of us. Assuming for moment that’s true and they are out there, why no hello? What have they got to lose?
Fermi’s paradox, personified.
On further review of that story, I find it a muddled mosh of wierdness: Scientists suddenly find that we should be in the midst of a Galactic Great Society, and wonder why we haven’t seen anyone. Hello? I think that reporter wasn’t listening when the scientists were talking.
I’d guess the real story is that the possibility that we could maybe be close to a multi-stellar civilization has increased, a little, based on some study. Which is indeed interesting. But I’d like to see the source articles to see what the quoted sources are driving at.
Heres the story I heard: Fermi asked his famous question about the ET’s “Where are they?”
Leo Szilard is supposed to have retorted: “We’re right here, Enrico, we’re just disguised as Hungarian Jews.”
I think Fermi’s Paradox is real if interstellar colonization is feasible. After all, why colonize other parts of the galaxy if there is no advantage to it or it’s technologically impossible?
On the other hand, the only two other good arguments against it that I can come up with are:
– All the other civilizations were so violent they eliminated themselves as soon as or before they got cheap fusion.
– We are so violent they refuse to contact us.
They took one look at who we’ve picked to be the leader of the most powerful nation on the planet, and realize we’re even more eff’d up than they can imagine?
The aliens might have some sort of Prime Directive™ in effect so as not to hinder the development of primitive species.
Yeah, I just wanted to call you humans primitive.
two words
Gilligan’s Island
At what point are we supposed to start measuring this 100,000,000 year colonization time period? From the beginning of the universe? From the formation of a home planet? From the point that a civilization emerges on that planet? From the point that they develop rocketry?
Obviously if we’re measuring from the formation of the galaxy, it can and does take substantially longer than 100 million years to colonize a galaxy, since we haven’t done it yet.
Also, from what I understand our planet Earth is pretty unique in its environmental properties. Water, specific gravity level, specific temperature range, specific natural resources, stuff like that. Is it really possible to colonize more than a small handful of other planets in the galaxy that have conditions similar to ours?
Even if other alien races HAVE colonized the entire galaxy, would we even know it? Would they even know we exist, if they scanned our solar system for suitable planets 2,000,000 years ago and havent bothered to return to this inhospitable place since? We can’t even detect something as large as a planet outside of our own solar system without using some serious guesswork and getting lucky as hell, so who’s to say we wouldn’t miss the cities on those planets?
My opinion is that the evidence is inconclusive. We dont have any serious proof one way or the other for whether intelligent aliens exist, except for some probability calculations.
It may well be that there’s nothing interesting about us, we’re not worth contacting. Perhaps there are thousands of Von Neuman probes in our solar system, sending back data about us. They’ve taken a look at the data, and seen yet another primitive intelligent species who may not even get to the space colonisation stage, something they’ve seen millions of times before. Its easier to colonise another, unoccupied solar system, so they just leave us alone.
Another point of view is that we are the most advanced of the sentients to date, soon as we finally achieve the space drive to go the stars , then we meet em.
Declan
Bush can’t escape anyones wrath can he? :rolleyes:
OK, I found the original paper here (PDF). It seems I was hasty in thinking the reporter of the first article had misunderstood the scientists’ paper. I’m on my first cuppa latte, so I won’t try to precisely sum up the article, but they really do seem to be arguing that UFOs may be real because it’s just so likely that we can’t be alone. (There also seems to be a stab at an ET “Prime Directive”, but I’ll wait until Latte Prime to absorb that piece.)
To which I might reply that the solution to Fermi’s paradox is that perhaps there are (or have been, given the time scale) many nearby stellar civilizations, but interstellar travel really is so difficult and impractical that extra-stellar civilizations are unlikely or impossible. Meaning, they’re out there, but the likelyhood of us meeting each other is small. Which I’d find dissapointing, but not difficult to believe.
Ah, the scientific version of religion.
It’s the Prime Directive. They can’t interfere. 
Seriously, it looks to me like this hypothetical interstellar community is dependent on a presumption that the other critters will have figured out a solution to faster-than-light travel and I’m not convinced that there is such a solution. Speculations about quantum strings and “wormholes” as possibilities are currently no better than wild hypotheticals.
If FTL travel is not possible then its not possible and no amount of technological development is going to make it possible. And as long as we have to poke along at c- speeds then it may well be impossible to establish any sort of contact between any two alien civililations unless they are incidentally very close to each other (like the same planetary system).
Well, Earth’s climate hasn’t really changed all that much in 2 million years. Back then, there were proto-hominids scurrying about, breathing oxygen and eating plants and smaller animals and whatnot. If the aliens found it inhospitable then, they’d likely draw the same conclusion now.
I think we’re viewing this problem through a Eurocentric lens. What if they don’t want to colonize other worlds? The ancient Chinese were more advanced with Europeans, but they had no desire to colonize Europe or any other place. The aliens might have a totally self-sufficient world that they’ve taken good care of, so they don’t feel a need to colonize. They’re isolationists.
I think it is much more likely that any advanced civilization would send intelligent undetectable probes than come themselves. What would be the point of coming yourself? I can’t even begin to imagine the structure of an interstellar civilization because of the time and distances involved.
You can’t assume the “aliens” would have any of the motivations or desires that humans do. There’s also no guarantee that we humans are the type of organism which eventually advances to the point of awareness of other civilizations, or is able to bridge interstellar space. I’m talking about our inherent, inescapable greediness and personal self-interest, and our inability to plan for the far off future. (these are not value judgments, just facts of human nature for the majority). I think our life-span is simply too short.
Look at how much human energy, brilliant minds, and earth resources are wasted in creating meaningless crap for consumers. Look how long it takes to send probes to a nearby moon (7 years to Titan) If you compare the rate of our scientific advances to the rate of our resource expenditure and population growth on earth, I’m afraid we’re going to run out of raw materials and we’ll be more worried about “just surviving” long before we ever put enough minds to work to advance science to the point we can travel in interstellar space.
Well, GEEZ, pal. We’ve only been at this space exploration business since 1957. Cut us some slack, willya?
Personally, I’m hoping private industry, i.e. Burt Rutan, will spur the research and development of faster and more effective vehicles. Government-run programs are too limited by congressional funding and the demand for military applications.
One word “Cops” 