Ok…so I’m reading the latest addition to Wired Magazine (January 2005), and the top story is about Richard Branson, the founder and owner of Virgin Airways (and Virgin everything else). Appearently Branson has decided this space thing has some potential…if nothing else, its marketting for his other companies. Anyway, he’s decided to partner with Scaled Composites (and MS cofounder Paul Allen who has a stake in SpaceShipOne) owned by Burt Rutan to build 5 scaled up versions of SpaceShipOne, as well as a ‘space port’ which will allow (in theory) 50 passengers a month to take a 2 hour flight into space (62 miles up), as well as a 3 day ‘astronaut experience’…total price, $200k per customer.
Branson appearently has ponied up $121.5 million ($75 million to Rutun alone)…and according to him this is just the beginning. Of course in the article he goes on to say that he wants to get to low earth orbit and eventually to the moon. However, even what he’s attempting is interesting enough. (as an aside to put some perspective on that $121.5 figure, the article claims that this is less than half the cost of a Airbus A340-600…which VA bought 26 of last summer. In addition Branson is appearently worth a cool 2 billion).
But…will it work? Will anyone be willing to pay $200k for a 2 hour ride into space? Will 50 people a month be able to pony up that kind of cash? Will rich folks be willing to take that kind of risk? What happens when the first plane load goes up in smoke? Even if it doesn’t work, is it still a good idea? I can think of little in life thats sweeter to me as far as space travel goes than putting $75 million in Burt Rutan’s capable hands…so even if this is a business failure I think its a good thing. What do you think?
If I had that kind of disposable income I’d do it in a heartbeat.
The Russians took two people up to the ISS for $20 million apiece, one guy tried out for it (Lance Bass, I think, and he had to pay a huge non-refundable deposit) and IIRC John Denver wanted to do it before his untimely crash.
That price is one that only the ultra-rich can afford. Cut it by a factor of 100 and it’s something that the “average” millionare can afford, and there’s plenty of those people.
$200k is about twice what a professionally organized attempt on Everest costs per person and Everest gets pretty crowded. A space shot is faster, you don’t have to train hard for months, travel by yak or really exert much effort beyond writing a check.
I will bet that Branson & Co. have a big list of people who have put down deposits already and when they start flying there will be a waiting list.
I hope not. I’m too old to take up a life of crime, and not lucky enough to win the lottery. I’d probably have to kill somebody to get a ticket, and I’d feel kinda bad about that.
Other than that, its pretty much inevitable, technology cheapens as it expands, almost by definition. Good news: you can get off the planet for an hour or so. Bad news: Upper Volta has nukes.
I still can’t see it as anything but literally throwing money away. Spaceflight is cool, but honestly how much of a genuinely worth 200k experience can you have in two hours? Most of the value is in being able to say “I was in space” as opposed to the value of the experience itself.
It’s their money to spend, and I’m sure it probably benefits the economy in some way. But it still seem increadably wasteful…
608 guys take the trip, he recovers his investment.
I wonder what the operational cost of VSS Enterprise will be?
They plan for a higher flight so that there will be more weightless time.
It was mentioned, “if a guy and his girl friend want to buy the whole trip for themselves…”
Wow, talk about having to perform!
I dunno, I’ve always wondered about why the ladies on the Shuttle smile so much.
And what about that gymnastic parachutist the Rooskies sent up? Was she alone? Her only qualification was being able to jump out of the damn thing. Unless…
There is a problem with the use of the word “space travel” in this context. What Rutan did was fly straight up and fall back to Earth. While this was quite an achievement it was not an orbital flight. To achieve an orbital flight the vehicle will have to reach something like 18,000 mph. This is way beyond Rutan’s prize winning accomplishment (not that he won’t win whatever prize there is for orbital flight).
If Rutan makes an orbital flight on the shoestring budget he’s known for then he will go down in history as the 21st century version of the Wright Brothers.
Oh sure. You’re stuck on the ISS for six months with Ivan. NASA calls and says “sorry guys, we can’t come get you for awhile.” You’re thinking, “I might die up here, without ever having had sex again!” Ivan is looking at you thinking the same thing.
This is but the first step. Remember, that this was done by a PRIVATE enterprise not a government. Rutan has already stated that he is setting his sights next on an Orbital flight (though that might have changed now that he has a paying customer for 5 upscaled versions of SpaceShipOne of course :)).
I don’t see it as ‘throwing away money’, I see it as a progression of steps. If people are willing to pay $200k for a suborbital flight (I would if I had that kind of disposable cash) then it will fund the next phase…orbital flights.
My guess is that operational costs are less than $1 million (5 paying customers at $200k)…to stay profitable. I’m betting its a LOT less than $1 million a shot, even with insurance and personnel costs.
No one has any thoughts on what will happen when the first group of millionares fails to come back?
Assuming you mean die rather than seek asylum on Vulcan, lawsuits with a lot of very expensive lawyers that will bankrupt Virgin and kill non government space flight.
I think the venture could be financially successful. (not will necessarily, but could).
I am hesitant about whether such a venture could fund an orbital development project. The difference between spaceship one, suborbital hops, and space flight are pretty spectacular.
Should the gubmint develop a reasonable launch platform I’d bet that 15-20 years later (maybe less) a commercial enterprise could duplicate or approximate it.
