The first debate will be held October 13 at the Wynn, a casino-hotel in Las Vegas. Don’t ask me why.
Biden won’t be in it. Not in the first one, anyway.
That leaves Clinton, Sanders, and supporting cast.
I predict Clinton and Sanders will get the lion’s share of talking time. I expect Sanders to make political attacks only very broadly at ‘corporate-ruled politicians’ and the like, and I don’t expect any targeted shots from Sanders against Hillary. I don’t expect Hillary to attack any Democrats, though she will probably point out a few points of disagreement with President Obama. I expect Chaffee to spend what little talking time he’ll have attacking Hillary; I expect Webb to stumble in explaining his (utterly stupid) opposition to the Iran nuclear deal; and I expect O’Malley to make very little impact.
And I expect the debate to be kind of boring. I plan to watch it anyway.
That would be consistent with Sanders’ campaigning/advertising strategy so far – he has explicitly disavowed any going-negative against Clinton.
That’s the point - he’s not loyal enough to the party to actually join it, but he’s loyal enough at least not to damage its nominee. He’s in there to bracket her from the left in the debates, and to be the strident voice for progressivism, more strongly associating it with the party, that she can’t fully be at this point.
I’m excited. Someone’s going to have a breakout moment that’s going to shift the course of the elections, but I’m not sure who. Hillary’s not nearly as beloved now as she was when she announced her candidacy, but I think many people are still supporting her simply because she’s the only candidate they’re familiar with. Once they get to know the other candidates, the poll numbers won’t be so lopsided.
As for where Sanders fits into this – well, every single Sanders supporter I know is excited about him. This debate won’t harm him a bit. I think he could put forth a pretty lackluster performance and still retain his fan base, and I don’t think any of the lesser-known candidates could wrench support away from him.
Heh, I’d forgotten that Chafee and Webb were running.
I expect Biden to drop out shortly after this debate. If he doesn’t want in by now, nothing’s going to change in the next two weeks. I guess maybe he’s waiting to see if Hilary looks damaged, but clearly, his heart just isn’t in this fight.
Sanders shuffles over to Hillary’s podium, asks her if she wants a Walnetto, she hits him with her purse…
None of these people want to damage each other. Sanders sure isn’t going to say anything negative about Hillary, and at this point she doesn’t need to go negative about him. Barring Biden’s entry, these are the only two horses in the field that will get significant questioning.
You’re thinking of Arte Johnson as the dirty old man in the park hitting on Ruth Buzzi?
Of course.
Merneith, Biden can not drop from a race that he is not participating, IMHO what the media has been doing with Biden is too manipulating. It would be like if the pollsters would add Romney on the Republican side.
I think that the Republican candidates that would be getting even worse poll numbers would be complaining against the media if they had added a candidate that is not running only because a few would like to see it.
This notion that Biden is “thinking about running” or anything like it would be puzzling, if it weren’t for the fact that the media needs something to talk about. He himself has done exactly nothing by way even of preparing, and has *said *only that he’s not feeling up to it. It’s already too late anyway.
Oh well, if he’s not on that stage, maybe all that talk will die down - at least a bit.
I laughed out loud on this one.
If it ain’t O’Malley, Chafee or Webb, don’t expect them to be in the second debate. This is their first and last chance to establish relevancy.
But he’s not saying he’s not running. If he does decide to run, I think he’s doing the smart thing by waiting until the last minute to jump in. Let the Hillary fatigue grow. However, I’d be surprised if he jumps in. Not unless something catastrophic happens to Hillary to give him a clear path to the nomination.
That is a *very *thin thread to hang on.
FTR, she’s up 18 points on Sanders even *with *Biden in the poll. O’Malley is at literally zero.
I realize that, but until he says he’s not running the media will talk about the possibility of it. And like I said, I think he’s just keeping it open in case Hillary’s campaign implodes.
Clinton will play up electability. She’ll say she has the best chance of beating whoever the Republican nominee will be.
Beyond that, she has a choice. She can go the experience route, pointing out that she’s been in the executive and legislative branches, she’s worked in foreign and domestic policy, and she’s been inside a Presidential administration.
But the other possibility is she’ll pass on the reason approach and make the emotional appeal. Talk about being a woman. Talk about being the primary target for Republican attacks over the years. Sell herself as the plucky underdog who never gave up.
Sanders will continue to do what he’s been doing. He won’t go negative. He’ll state his program to a larger audience and try to raise his numbers.
“…and the rest” - Chafee, O’Malley, and Webb need to make the miracle play. They need to show they’re at least viable enough to stay in this campaign. They’re being beaten at this point by a guy who isn’t even running. If they don’t give a spectacular performance, they’re out.
Well yes, but the point is that adding a possible candidate that is not running yet is very odd to me, I know that the media does want a horse race, but I don’t remember seeing something similar. Again, it would be like adding Romney in the Republican side for months. Mind you, I will not mind if Biden is the eventual candidate; but really, the polls and the media should not be adding a non candidate into this mix.
I will have to ask here because I’m not sure of this: Has there ever been another occasion were the pollsters have added a non-candidate for months in their primary or presidential race polls?
I think Clinton and Sanders will play nice with each other, there might be a little back and forth between them but they agree on more than they disagree, and I still think that Sanders want’s to make sure his issues get media play more than he actually wants to be president. Some of the others might come at Clinton a bit more aggressively since its their only hope to stay relevant, unless they are angling for a VP shot in which case they will also probably lay off any attacks.
I think Clinton’s numbers will improve post debate. For the past several months the only political news has been Trump and the Republican race, and Clinton’s email scandals. Getting national coverage will remind people that she can actually come across as warm, personable and competent, rather than just an object of investigation.
Oh, and also after the debate Trump will say something obnoxious that will get as much media attention as the debate itself.