I was in band in high school, so I’ve never played football. But I do like football—in fact, it’s just about the only sport I do enjoy watching. I think that’s because I was pretty much forced to watch so many football games that I started to understand what was going on. Which brings me to the question.
Would it be possible to fix a football game—specifically an NFL game? Having never actually played, I don’t know how one would go about doing such a thing, if it were indeed possible. How would you do it? How many people would have to be involved? Would people on the field know the fix was in? The refs? The coaches? Would it be screamingly obvious from the stands? What signs would give the fix away? Has it ever happened? If so, how was it discovered and what were the consequences? Does it happen now? What controls are in place to prevent it?
It’s not easy. However, watch the Vegas lines. For example, last week, Cleveland was an underdog going to Arizona. That looked like an aberration because Cleveland was playing good ball and Arizona was mediocre.
Was there a fix in that game? Maybe, maybe not. It does seem that Vegas knew something, though. Most pundits would have picked the Browns to win that game.
Now, as for what people you’d have to corrupt, the easiest one is the quarterback. Next would be an official or three.
It might be possible to pull off a point shaving scam. In point shaving, a gambler pays a player to purposely make mistakes, thus improving the gambler’s chances for or against the spread. here is a nifty little timeline of point shaving incidents in various sports.
Just this year, a running back for the University of Toledo (or Toledo University?) was arrested for it. The last incident in the NFL, that we know about anyway, occurred way back in 1946.
The NFL is a pretty clean run organization, but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible.
With any sport, it depends on the individual game. Is there anything a ref could do to have gotten a 56-10 game to end 14-10? Probably not. But if the game is close, one call either way could definitely change the betting result. I would think you would have to have either a ref or an unbenchable QB to have a good chance at sucess.
I’m thinking it would be almost prohibitively expensive. Think of the salaries af the players whose play could make a difference in a win, and the amount of money even a corrupt player would accept to throw a game considering the consequences (jail time, banning from football, fines, loss of millions in future salary and endorsements). The cost would become exponential for every player who came in on the plot. Of course even these figures would only apply to the most stupid and corrupt players, who ususally, but not always, aren’t the star players. I suppose blackmail could come into play. Though if you were able to blackmail one player it still wouldn’t be enough of a guarantee for a large bet. One out of twenty-two starters may not upset the balance enough for a loss. Especially if the player were to suck too badly he’d likely get taken out of the game by the coaches.
Not sure why the Browns would be such a clear favorite. It is tough to win on the road in the NFL. Arizona beat Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Detroit at home.
I don’t remember what that line was (about 3, right?) One of the basic rules of thumb in thinking about NFL lines is that you start by having the home team give 3. I thought that the teams would be fairly evenly matched, maybe the Browns are better, but you pretty much had to have Arizona as a favorite.
The path of least resistance to arranging a fix would likely be through an official and not a player, given the fact that a pro would be expensive to bribe, an official less so. A corrupt umpire could call or miss a few extra holding penalties at opportune moments, a back or field side judge could call or miss a pass interference play. I’m sure NFL officials are not supposed to gamble or affiliate themselves with nefarious characters, but NBA refs (for whom ref-ing is a full time job, unlike in the NFL) aren’t either and Tim Donaghy managed to get deep into a debt to bookmakers without the NBA noticing.
Oh, sure. Have the quarterback throw to a receiver in coverage deep down the field, and if a DB forces an incompletion, have the ref call pass interference. Do that two or three times in the game and any decent team can get an extra touchdown or two. If that doesn’t do the trick, have some defensive linemen jump the line a couple of times and have the ref call false start on the offense. That’ll stagnate the opposing attack. Give first downs to plays that fall a couple of inches short, etc. Not too tough.
ETA: You don’t really even have to get any of the players in on this. Opportunities to make those calls will come up a couple of times naturally.
Couldn’t just about any player make a game-changing “mistake”? A fumble, a dropped pass on third down, a missed tackle, a bad snap, a slip and fall?
Football is the proverbial game of inches – look at last night’s Pats game. A corrupt player would only need to make a single bad play to shave points or change an outcome.
In the NBA, there’s always “conspiracies” where A) larger markets and/or B) popular players advance in the playoffs. I remember hearing this when Cleveland with LeBron made it to last year’s finals.