That’s your personal logic, not that of the offender, and this is one obstacle to effective thinking on this topic.
You may think that certain things result as night follows day, this is just not the case with offenders.
Some criminals and some crimes are affected by intuitively logical policies, however the only real measurment has to be empirical, so what I would like to see are some cites with data.
Much crime does not take place with forethought, indeed the majority probably does not, much of it takes place under the influences of various substances, and a high percentage of offenders have mental and social disorders, along with very poor thought processes. Add to this high emotions and suddenly the calm detached view of the offenders’ reaction to deterrance starts to break down.
We have executed folk on the flimsiest of evidence in the most brutal ways, and it has not resolved crime, nor will it ever, deterrance through punishment does not work universally.
The question becomes, ‘Is it cost effective’, is one means of dealing with crime and criminals a better use of resources than another?The only truly effective way of preventing any form of reoffending is death, which might be somewhat controversial, especially for petty crimes such as speeding, or using a mobile phone whilst driving, but, execution as practised in the US is incredibly expensive and long winded.
The next most effective way of preventing reoffending is never to release offenders, this too could be expensive.
You’ll notice that I used the words reoffending, rather than prevention, because it is impossible to identify with any reliability the future first time offender, there are conditions which are more likely to give rise to certain types of offending, and perhaps this is where resources should be properly directed.
There is no magic answer, and the OP is falling into some wishful dreaming that there might be.Solutions are difficult, intractable, at best only partially successful.