Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up

The Quarantine Zone
281

Is there a resource that lists the actions taken by states concerning lock-downs and mitigation efforts, as well as re-openings, in an easy to read timeline format? I’ll do one for Massachusetts. I had to slog through a bunch of information on a Wikipedia page to get the relevant info.

Massachusetts
March 17: Schools closed for 3 weeks; banned eating at restaurants; banned gatherings of 25 or more people
March 24: Stay-at- home advisory; non-essential businesses closed physical workplaces; restaurants and bars take out or delivery only
April 21: Schools will remain closed for rest of school year
May 6: Face coverings in public
May 18: Phase 1 reopening; safer at home replaced stay-at-home advisory; churches, essential businesses, manufacturing businesses, and construction sites reopened with restrictions
May 25: Additional businesses (?) reopen with restrictions
June 8: Phase 2, part 1; opened with precautions; childcare day camps, lodging retail stores (?), outdoor seating at restaurants, and chidren’s sports programs
June ??: Phase 2, part 2; opened indoor dining with restrictions, tanning and nail salons
July 6: Phase 3, part 1; opened gyms, casinos, and museums with safety precautions

And this list is incomplete and has some inconsistencies. You would think someone would have compiled a list like this for all the states.

282

There’s the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.

283

So you must have noticed Florida set a new state record for fatalities yesterday. The rolling average continues to climb now, which unfortunately is precisely as one would have expected.

Florida (and Texas, albeit maybe not quite as badly) is in the midst of a growing natural disaster that will dwarf anything else it’s ever seen.

284

The giveaway is likely to be that the death rate will not follow the infection rate in the time lagged manner.

Georgia looks a little odd in this respect, the mortality rate is rising but at a far lower rate of increase than that of infection from the previous three to four weeks.

285

Again, I keep track of each day’s totals. I’m not sure why you’re focusing on Florida and Texas. New Jersey is doing worse and that state ranks as the all time high so one would think a recurrence there was worth noting. Is there something about the Florida and Texas that bothers you?

Is it political or is your response driven by media coverage?

I would think it more noteworthy to focus on the demographics of increases in new cases. That would be young people. A demographic without a border.

Your prediction is noted.

286

New Jersey is certainly not doing worse.

New Jersey sees 300 - 400 new cases a day.

Florida is seeing 10,000 + new cases a day.

In what world is New Jersey worse?

287

What? There are 34 states that had more cases than New Jersey yesterday. Why are you comparing New Jersey’s 272 new cases/20 new deaths to Florida’s 11,466 new cases/120 new deaths and Texas’s 9,496 new cases/126 new deaths? California should also be harped upon given they had 9,608 new cases/122 new deaths yesterday, but New Jersey?

288

In the per capita death rate and all time per capita death count.

289

Oh, so you are looking at the past, before measures were taken to drop the infection rate to its current low levels.

We are looking at the present, which is relevant to the future.

I’m not sure what part of this you do not understand.

There is even a graph on the page I linked you to. On the Florida graph, there is a line that is going up. On the New Jersey graph, there is a line that is going down.

I’m not sure if things can possibly be broken down into anything simpler for you to understand here.

290

California is a much larger state than New Jersey. Currently they are doing MUCH better than New Jersey on a death per capita basis.

You’re aware of the chaos that occurred in New York but you don’t seem to be aware that New Jersey did worse as a percentage of population.

New York is doing pretty well right now but New Jersey has 4 times the death rate. It’s a small state so their numbers seem small compared to larger states. They’re linked geographically to New York so it’s worth keeping an eye on. Maybe they still have a problem with elderly care. I don’t know…

291

I’m looking at rolling 10 day death rates.

292

Okay, two questions on that.

One, where are you getting your data?

And two, why is a 10 day rolling rate superior to what is actually happening now? I can certainly see how it is of some use for various data analysis, but for predicting the future, it is useless.

If it is data that makes Florida look better than a state with two orders of magnitude lower new case rates, then that data is worse than garbage.

You are a month behind the ball here. First of all, it takes 2-3 weeks to go from infection to death, so by choosing to only look at deaths, you are already behind. Then you choose to look only at the most extended rolling average, adding another 10 days before your data is complete.

This is a horrendous way to predict the future. I’m starting to understand why DeVos said that she didn’t know how to plan for things that haven’t happened yet.

293

This is just selection of data to support a position, no question that New Jersey is currently doing better having done badly early on.

Add in a few more details, New Jersey suffered because it was right in the front line of infections and deaths, and medical intervention was still being developed. There was also an underestimation of the dangers and lack of preparedness.

What you can take from this is that New Jersey has taken the measures needed to reduce and control spread and has continued to maintain them appropriately and in line with the expertise of the medical professionals.

Now when we compare with Texas and Florida are two states that have had the warnings from elsewhere, have had the time to implement control measures, have the benefit of more information on medical intervention and should therefore be in a position to prevent.

What we got with Florida and Texas is failure to heed the warnings, weak and inept control measures, failure to maintain control measures, reluctance bordering on gross negligence to accept medical pandemic expert advice, an unwarranted enthusiasm to open up based upon the stupidity of the political out look of Republican politics and the sheer idiocy of Trump.

The result is very clear to see by June 4th New Jersey had learned its lessons and had reduced infections from a peak of around 4000 a day to less than 300 per day, whilst Florida was at 1000 cases per day and two weeks later this was over 13 times higher and its a similar situation for Texas.

The answers were there for all to see, Florida and Texas had the time and the resources to prevent a huge spread and failed to do this - not because of any unusual or freak circumstance, they failed for only one reason and one reason alone - political hubris.

I understand people may argue and play devils advocate in order to bring out all shades of views, facts and opinions, but sorry to say MAGIVER is not doing it this way - it really speaks to me of pathetic data cherry picking to try make a weasel case that cannot be supported - and why?
Well anyone with a conscience and heart would look objectively at the facts and try to use the information to save lives - and none of this applies to any of the points being made by MAGIVER.

I would be interested to understand why MAGIVER is so keen to make such transparently spurious arguments as some sort of defence at the failed and increasingly failing actions of states such as Texas and Florida.

294

Or, there is a much, much, much simpler explanation for it all - that the 'rona road show wrapped up in Jersey and moved on to Florida and Texas (and wherever else), and is going to do exactly the same thing there that it did everywhere else it’s been.

295

Then how do you explain the countries that have had lower per capita death rates but have seemed to quash the virus? Your hypothesis immediately falls apart when we look at the rest of the world.

296

Florida is a mess for sure.

But it’s real important for folks to be careful how they’re throwing around the word “rate”. It can mean either per unit time or per capita or percentage of some other number. Those are each very different things. We’re all instant experts reading websites written by instant experts reporting info interpreted by instant experts. With eventually some real expertise deep in the bowels that source the original data.

As well, we need to be careful about who’d talking totals per state or country versus amounts per capita. The per-capita numbers IMO speak to the skill or lack when it comes to managing the pandemic. The totals just speak to skill/lack multiplied by how big a place that skill/lack is in charge of.

I’ve pointed out previously that death numbers also have a multi-day reporting lag built into them. If If somebody pulls up the death numbers for yesterday July 17 on today July 18 those numbers are very preliminary. If you come back a week later on July 25 and again pull up July 17th you’ll retrieve a very different number. The actual number of dead on the 17th isn’t changing. Just the number whose individual death report has been turned in, audited, then filtered up to the top and out into the website(s).

There’s a lot of room for GIGO here.

297

Yes, that is a simpler explanation.

And as with many simple explanations to extremely complex problems, it is extremely wrong.

298

Why are you using a rolling 10 day death rate when there is a very clear 7 day cycle. Using an off-cycle moving average is insane. A 7 or 14 day moving average would be much better.

Also, you seem to be great at collecting data, but do a poor job analyzing it. California and New Jersey may have a similar per capita death rate presently, but New Jersey’s has leveled off while California’s is rising. People are singling out Texas and Florida because those states, along with Arizona, are doing the absolute worst at the moment.

New Jersey is not a small state. It is ranked 11th in the U.S. by population, having about 1/4th as many people as California. New Jersey is the most dense state in the U.S. and density plays a huge role in the spread of this virus. A good portion of New Jersey is in the NYC metro area, which contains most of the densest cities in the nation.

299

Especially as we can no longer count on accurate reporting of these numbers as they no longer go through the CDC.

300

I’ll just add something here, rereading my last post I note it contains far too much personal attention to MAGIVER when there is plenty of material from him to submit my challenges to his position without such recourse.

Please accept this on record that my post should be taken on the information and not on the my views on personal motivation and so in that regard I apologise.