Did these nations have the ability to seal their borders against the infected residents from next door? Do states have that ability and authority?
a 10 day rolling average is a better reflection of trends when dealing with low numbers.
Evidently they do not, as they are giving you the impression that Florida is doing a better job than New Jersey, which according to any metric other than your oddly cherry picked one, is absolutely not the case.
The fewer days used, the wilder the swings. I used 10 arbitrarily to smooth it out. I want to keep the range low to see trends and not what happened a month ago. Also, If all data is compared using the same ranges then it’s apples to apples.
I didn’t cherry pick anything. I used the same date ranges and averages for all the states. It’s not a debate point.
But if your method of data analysis leads you to erroneous conclusions, then isn’t your method of data analysis suspect? You chose this metric for a reason, and there are far better metrics that “smooth it out”.
I don’t know what you think you can prove by looking at such a trailing statistic, but it is extremely evident that you cannot use it to predict anything or use it for planning. You can’t use it for planning for social distancing or other mitigation measures, and you cannot use it for planning to have adequate medical supply to meet the upcoming demand.
What use is your method of data analysis? In 2 weeks, when the trailing 10 days shows Florida having far greater deaths than NJ, all that tells you is that you were wrong now, but two weeks too late. By looking at infections, I can predict what the hospitalization rate will be. By looking at hospitalizations, I can predict how many will be dead. By looking at deaths, all we are doing is counting up our failures.
California and New Jersey’s death rate are NOT similar right now. New Jersey’s much higher. That was my point. And I checked my tables to see if NJ’s population totals were wrong. They’re not. The trend numbers are low enough that maybe it’s an anomaly but that will show up in the days to follow.
My point is not to pick on New Jersey, it’s to point out that Florida has become a sound bite on the nightly news.
Cite?
That is because they have record breaking numbers of new cases.
It will take a month for those new cases to make it into your trailing 10 day count of failures.
I’m sure that they will be in the news at that time as well.
Is there any sort of predictive or planning purposes that can be accomplished with your unique way of tabulating the dead?
Here is the comparison of rolling seven day average deaths per 1,000,000 residents between FL and NJ. Florida has only recently taken the lead for the first time in this pandemic.
But if we look at cases, we see that it looks like things are going to get much worse in Florida. I hope that they find some way to avoid this looming disaster, but I don’t think that’s even possible.
Solid post. It clearly illustrates how Magiver is looking through a microscope when he should be looking through a telescope.
Florida is far from the lead in current trends. Please explain why New Jersey numbers are up and why it doesn’t seem to matter?
your prediction is noted.
Which numbers, specifically, are you looking at for New Jersey?
While their case count is growing slowly, it’s not growing as fast as testing is increasing, which is why their positivity rate (the percentage of tests performed that come back positive) is steady to slowly dropping. Back in April, they were lucky to do 7000 tests a day, and at the peak more than half were positive. Now, they routinely do 15-20,000 tests a day, and the positivity rate is around 1.3-1.5%. (cite) The 7-day moving average of deaths per day is less than a tenth of what it was.
Meanwhile, in Florida, the positivity rate is soaring, routinely over 16-18 percent over the past week, and occasionally hitting 20%, after being under 5 percent from late April to mid-June. The 7-day moving average of deaths topped out at 51 on May 8, then declined into the 30s; it rebounded to 56 on July 9 and hasn’t looked back, being now around a hundred. Daily hospitalizations are over twice what they were a few months ago.
Comparing the two states, Florida’s trends are going in the exact opposite to New Jersey’s.
You are just utterly and completely wrong. Only Mississippi and Arizona have a higher death per millions (current) in the U.S. Why do you have so much trouble with the numbers?
I wasn’t all that surprised when the sun came up this morning either.
I live in SoFL. We have 2 very different stories happening within the Florida state totals. The urban+suburban areas have a rollicking booming hospital-bursting pandemic going on. The other counties have a minor manageable disease problem.
If we zoomed in within Florida just to the 6 or 7 main affected counties we’d see the cases or deaths per million numbers looking a bunch worse than @Lance_Turbo’s fine graphs.
Of course most states have the same divide between a couple or few heavily populated major conurbations and the remaining lightly populated out-counties. IMO FL has that divide more strongly than NJ which would mean that FL would compare even worse to NJ if we focused just on the more populated areas.
In Florida the seven day average of deaths per day per 1,000,000 residents is 4.66 and that is up 42% from a week earlier.
In New Jersey the seven day average of deaths per day per 1,000,000 residents is 2.78 and that is down 50% from a week earlier.
For almost the entire pandemic the New Jersey numbers were worse, and frequently a lot worse, than Florida’s numbers. That is no longer the case and there are indications that things are on the verge of getting much worse in Florida.
Here’s a big table for those who are interested in such things.
| Rank | State | Avg Deaths Per Day |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | 11.36 |
| 2 | Mississippi | 5.57 |
| 3 | South Carolina | 5.11 |
| 4 | Alabama | 5.01 |
| 5 | Florida | 4.66 |
| 6 | Texas | 3.8 |
| 7 | Louisiana | 3.17 |
| 8 | New Jersey | 2.78 |
| 9 | Nevada | 2.5 |
| 10 | California | 2.44 |
| 11 | Georgia | 2.31 |
| 12 | Massachusetts | 2.26 |
| 13 | Tennessee | 2.09 |
| 14 | District of Columbia | 2.02 |
| 15 | Connecticut | 1.92 |
| 16 | Rhode Island | 1.89 |
| 17 | Iowa | 1.86 |
| 18 | Arkansas | 1.8 |
| 19 | New Mexico | 1.77 |
| 20 | North Carolina | 1.74 |
| 21 | Kentucky | 1.44 |
| 22 | Pennsylvania | 1.41 |
| 23 | Utah | 1.38 |
| 24 | Maryland | 1.37 |
| 25 | Idaho | 1.36 |
| 26 | Indiana | 1.36 |
| 27 | Illinois | 1.29 |
| 28 | Washington | 1.22 |
| 29 | Ohio | 1.19 |
| 30 | Nebraska | 1.18 |
| 31 | New York | 1.17 |
| 32 | South Dakota | 1.13 |
| 33 | Missouri | 1.09 |
| 34 | Oklahoma | 1.08 |
| 35 | Montana | 1.07 |
| 36 | Virginia | 1.05 |
| 37 | Minnesota | 1.04 |
| 38 | Delaware | 0.88 |
| 39 | Oregon | 0.85 |
| 40 | Wyoming | 0.74 |
| 41 | Michigan | 0.73 |
| 42 | Colorado | 0.67 |
| 43 | Kansas | 0.59 |
| 44 | North Dakota | 0.56 |
| 45 | Wisconsin | 0.54 |
| 46 | Maine | 0.53 |
| 47 | New Hampshire | 0.53 |
| 48 | Hawaii | 0.5 |
| 49 | West Virginia | 0.32 |
| 50 | Alaska | 0.2 |
| 51 | Vermont | 0 |
To be clear, this is seven day average of deaths per day per 1,000,000 residents.
@Magiver, Seven days is better than 10 because the fluctuations are artifacts of imperfect reporting on weekends. So when a weekend day drops off, you want to add a weekend.
A 10 day average has a changing number of weekend days . . Sometimes 2, sometimes 4. It’s less accurate.