Denmark is actually fairly dense compared with other European nations. It is more dense than all but eight U.S. States (it fits between FL and PA). West Virginia is 50% larger and has 1/3 the population of Denmark. You are correct about the borders.
One of the problems here is that it’s unclear how long of a delay there should be when attributing a rise in cases to reopening.
When Georgia reopened there were dire predictions of an increase in cases. When that failed to materialize, it was said that of course, that’s because it takes weeks before the opening manifests itself in an increase in test results. OK, but now we’re seeing an increase 4 days after reopening attributed to the reopening.
In sum, unless there’s some agreement as to how long the duration would be for a reopening-caused spike, it’s very difficult to make much of the data.
It’s been over 3 weeks. Let’s say you’re right. Putting aside the claims of false data and errors that Georgia supposedly cleaned up. I can’t really find reliable numbers for how they’re doing right now.
But without any of that, why do you think that Georgia is seeing a decrease (or not an increase?) in cases after they reopened?
Moderator Note
These are effectively political and professional jabs, which aren’t permitted in this forum. Dial it back, especially the use of words like “twat.”
Colibri
QZ Moderator
I’m not asserting that Georgia is actually seeing a decrease. Someone did earlier, but that’s not my claim or central to my point.
My point is that since there is apparently uncertainty as to how long after a state reopens there would be an expected spike in infections, it’s very difficult to test the theory that there should be a spike. What I pointing to was the article - written at a time when the Georgia results were being accepted at face value, and quoting various experts - which said that any spike wouldn’t manifest itself for several weeks. Contrast to your linked article which was clearly associating a spike 4 days after reopening with that reopening. Regardless of whether the drop in Georgia infections was genuine or not, the evidence that the reopening-spike lag is a moving target remains.
I understand. So let’s say that there wasn’t a spike in Georgia for discussion sake. What could account for that in particular in Georgia? Would you extrapolate that finding to other places?
Moderator Note
Let’s not refer to anyone as a “twat” or any other vulgar synonym for a woman’s genitals outside of the Pit, please.
You might want to choose a different example. While your population figure is close, the “huge landmass” is not. Population density is much higher in Denmark than West Virginia, or, for that matter, Sweden.
Denmark: population 5.8 million
347 people/sq. mile
W. Virginia: population 1.7 million
75 people/sq. mile
Sweden: population 10 million
64 people/sq. mile
I don’t know the answer to either of these questions.
Points both well taken. I did not think of the synonym for female genitalia when I said it. I apologize for that word’s use.
Thanks for the candor, but that’s the point of the exercise. It’s to determine what’s working and what’s not working by looking at the infection rates to determine if what’s working can be applied to other States.
I have some guesses about Georgia from watching the opening when it happened. But I’m not from Georgia, so I’d be interested to know if anyone has more knowledge about how the reopening went.
Because Georgia opened so early, people were pretty wary. The mayor of Atlanta told people to stay home. 120 restaurants decided not to open. Only about 12 restaurants opened.
Because the bulk of the restaurant businesses didn’t open right away, the change in infection rates might not have shown the increase you’d expect with people getting together.
I don’t have much more information about the other businesses. It would be interesting to see if their economy starts to boom. That would require more explanation as to why their economy picked up without the increase in cases, if that’s true.
There’s a lot of weird things to wonder about. Like, why isn’t reckless Florida not suffering magnitudes more than pretty proactive California?
California v Florida deaths/million
Wonders never cease. My holiday is over. 
I saw a bit of confirmation that my theory might have played out to some extent. In this youtube of Morning Joe, Steve Rattner says that Georgians started to slowly leave their homes, but it was not anywhere near back to normal levels. The graph is much more gradual and doesn’t get anywhere near how it was before. It actually didn’t move all that much higher from pre-lockdown levels.
In addition, on another graph, the effects of this on consumer spending was evident. Spending was at a bottom ebb right before the stimulus checks, then slightly going up after the stimulus checks went out, but not a significant increase after that. Also, job openings are only slightly higher after the lockdowns were lifted.
The act of lifting the lockdowns isn’t going to be indicative of a bigger spread of infection until people actually do go out again. At the same time, the economy won’t start recovering until people feel comfortable in spending more money. Except for the stimulus money, people haven’t increased their spending from lockdown levels.
If cases begin to rise again I do not see it as a second wave, but only because the initial wave of infection and death is far from over.
To have a second wave it seems to me you would first have to be in a position where it was not only under control, but very much declining. What little decline there has been is largely attributable to just two states, take those out and you still have a full on pandemic.
I know you like your research, Roo. There are a number of groups putting together mobility reports. Here’s Google’s:
I meant that it didn’t move much higher than lockdown levels, not pre-lockdown levels.
Which two states?
I’ve seen those, thanks.
New York and New Jersey - these seem to be the only ones that have got largely over the first wave after horrendous figures.
Of the other states that have currrently low rates of infection and death, nearly all of those have not had that much of a pandemic in the first place, but…
There is a large middle ground of states where the situation is just bumping along - according to NY times and a handful where they are increasing - around 32 states.
That is reflected in the number of new cases across the US as a whole, which appears to be declining slowly but actually masks the fact that most of that decline in in a small number of states.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Oh. Well if you look at the Georgia report, there’s definitely upward movement in Retail/Recreation which includes restaurants. Still down 20% from the baseline but up a lot since April 24th. Grocery/pharmacy never went down super bad but it’s basically at baseline now. Parks is now way above baseline - it flipped almost immediately. Workplace seems to be continuing a slow increase which started before the lockdown was lifted.
what little decline? It has declined significantly from peak. It’s gone from doubling every 2 days to doubling every 140 days. In that time a significant percentage of people will already have gotten the virus and we have improved treatment and testing.
We are far from a full-on pandemic. The goal of stabilizing hospital care has been achieved.