New Hampshire has a total death count of 409. So 81% of that is 331 nursing home deaths VS New York’s 6,500.
What are their nursing home populations?
What is your point here? Do you know that China’s population is 1.4 billion and Denmark’s is only 5.8 million. That is about as relevant a statement to this discussion as yours.
The point is that New York’s deaths don’t seem to have been disproportionately in nursing homes, strongly suggesting that the political talking point about patients being sent back to nursing homes is a complete red herring. In fact, they seem to have done a better job in nursing homes relative to the population as a whole in comparison to other states (which is what one might expect if, for example, New York happens to have a disproportionate number of non-nursing-home residents in high-density living situations, making it a particularly susceptible region in a pandemic).
that New York and New Jersey racked up a tremendous number of nursing home deaths. New Hampshire’s total numbers are worse on a per capita but their overall numbers are a much much smaller sample of the population.
Oh c’mon, just admit you were wrong about New York’s nursing home deaths. Just last week you were adamant that per capita numbers were the important factor when discussing New Jersey vs California. Now it’s overall numbers? You will do anything to massage the numbers to fit your narrative.
The best metric to use when comparing states is nursing home COVID deaths vs total COVID deaths. If you look at the Resident Average Deaths per 1,000 Residents chart at COVID 19 Nursing Home Data you’ll see that the graph lines up similarly with per capita deaths. New York should be number one on that chart, but they are way down at number 10. It seems they have handled nursing homes better than most other states.
I saw an article from June (I closed the tab and now I can’t find it again through Google) that said New York had 10% of all nursing home COVID deaths in the country. When I looked up the stats on Worldometer (I believe it was June 18th), New York had one third of all COVID deaths nationwide. So the rest of the country had ~66% of COVID deaths but 90% of nursing home COVID deaths.
Here’s an article about Florida: More than half of Florida’s coronavirus deaths linked to long-term care facilities
The big caveat here is that states report nursing homes deaths differently.
If you think I’m wrong then petition your governor to mandate nursing homes take covid patients as they represented 6,500 dead in New York.
So you’re not going to address any of the points I made? Why were so concerned about per capita numbers just a week ago, but now you seem stuck on fixed totals?
So, it’s been 10 days since you’ve said this. How are your 10 day averages looking for New Jersey versus those of Florida and Texas? I know that right now, the 7 day rolling averages of NJ, FL, and TX are 17, 131, and 161 respectively. Maybe your 10 day averages show a different story where NJ is flailing and FL and TX are doing perfectly fine.
Back to reality, NOW do you know why people and media coverage were focused on Texas and Florida and why no one gave a whit about New Jersey?
I did address your post.
To answer your question, I use numbers as they apply to what I’m writing about. Rolling averages of current deaths are a lagging but accurate indicator of an important trend. If you’re just looking at a single state then the straight average is what matters as a trend. If you’re comparing states to each other then you base it on per capita data.
In the case of New Hampshire their numbers are so low as to ignore a comparison to NY. If they show up in the current rankings it doesn’t mean 1000 people just died it means they need to be looked at more closely.
If you’ve been following the thread I’ve gone to the 7 day average as discussed.
New Jersey has dropped down. Was I supposed to notify you? I simply made the observation that their numbers had jumped up. New Jersey still has the highest death rate per capita in the US even above NY. It’s relevant to point out when their numbers spike up.
Since this thread is about the 2nd wave, and not the first, here’s a ranking of the states by percentage of all deaths that were recorded in July. Of course July is not quite over yet so this only includes data through 7/28.
The national average is 14.32%.
| Rank | State | Total Deaths | July Deaths | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana | 51 | 29 | 56.86% |
| 2 | Texas | 6003 | 3203 | 53.36% |
| 3 | South Carolina | 1564 | 826 | 52.81% |
| 4 | Arizona | 3408 | 1776 | 52.11% |
| 5 | Florida | 6117 | 2614 | 42.73% |
| 6 | Idaho | 160 | 68 | 42.50% |
| 7 | Utah | 286 | 114 | 39.86% |
| 8 | Tennessee | 999 | 395 | 39.54% |
| 9 | Arkansas | 428 | 158 | 36.92% |
| 10 | Alaska | 22 | 8 | 36.36% |
| 11 | Alabama | 1491 | 541 | 36.28% |
| 12 | Nevada | 758 | 252 | 33.25% |
| 13 | Oregon | 302 | 96 | 31.79% |
| 14 | Hawaii | 26 | 8 | 30.77% |
| 15 | Mississippi | 1542 | 470 | 30.48% |
| 16 | California | 8710 | 2633 | 30.23% |
| 17 | South Dakota | 122 | 32 | 26.23% |
| 18 | North Carolina | 1847 | 471 | 25.50% |
| 19 | Oklahoma | 508 | 122 | 24.02% |
| 20 | Wyoming | 26 | 6 | 23.08% |
| 21 | Kentucky | 718 | 154 | 21.45% |
| 22 | Georgia | 3562 | 758 | 21.28% |
| 23 | North Dakota | 100 | 21 | 21.00% |
| 24 | New Mexico | 626 | 129 | 20.61% |
| 25 | Kansas | 338 | 64 | 18.93% |
| 26 | Missouri | 1258 | 221 | 17.57% |
| 27 | Washington | 1521 | 255 | 16.77% |
| 28 | West Virginia | 111 | 18 | 16.22% |
| 29 | Virginia | 2094 | 332 | 15.85% |
| 30 | Louisiana | 3814 | 586 | 15.36% |
| 31 | Ohio | 3386 | 498 | 14.71% |
| 32 | Iowa | 839 | 123 | 14.66% |
| 33 | Nebraska | 321 | 47 | 14.64% |
| 34 | Wisconsin | 903 | 122 | 13.51% |
| 35 | Maine | 121 | 16 | 13.22% |
| 36 | Delaware | 580 | 71 | 12.24% |
| 37 | Indiana | 2923 | 284 | 9.72% |
| 38 | New Hampshire | 409 | 38 | 9.29% |
| 39 | Minnesota | 1620 | 144 | 8.89% |
| 40 | Maryland | 3457 | 268 | 7.75% |
| 41 | Pennsylvania | 7217 | 516 | 7.15% |
| 42 | Illinois | 7638 | 514 | 6.73% |
| 43 | Colorado | 1806 | 117 | 6.48% |
| 44 | Massachusetts | 8550 | 497 | 5.81% |
| 45 | District of Columbia | 580 | 32 | 5.52% |
| 46 | Rhode Island | 1005 | 55 | 5.47% |
| 47 | New Jersey | 15854 | 765 | 4.83% |
| 48 | Michigan | 6421 | 228 | 3.55% |
| 49 | Connecticut | 4422 | 101 | 2.28% |
| 50 | New York | 32719 | 590 | 1.80% |
| 51 | Vermont | 54 | 0 | 0.00% |
Thanks for posting that, @Lance_Turbo.
The 7-day average number of deaths/day in the US has just moved above 1,000, for the first time since June 3rd. It’s instructive to compare the progression of deaths/million inhabitants in the US with just about any other country—let’s take the entirety of the European Union:
The EU curve shows what one might consider the ‘typical’ progression: initial, sharp increase, then tapering off, down to a relative trickle of new deaths, as measures are enacted and the spread is slowed. The US shows a very different curve: at the start, it’s basically identical; then, the tapering off is somewhat slower, but still, qualitatively similar. However, at about the 100 day (since 0.1 deaths/million), the US again shows a marked upturn in death rates. After about 130 days, the US has a death rate of about 3.1/million, while the EU has 0.22/million, more tan 14 times less.
Now, this doesn’t say much about how bad this is eventually going to get. The EU could see another outbreak, bringing death rates back up—in fact, that’s probably a likely scenario. But the progression of death rates in the US is, so far, nearly unique in that it never dropped down to the marginal before increasing again.
You sure measures weren’t enacted till after the sharp increase?
Well, I’m not up to date on when which measures were implemented in detail; but, the peak in the EU was on April 10, I personally have been working from home from the beginning of March, following cautions from the German government. Widespread measures followed, with the contact ban being implemented on March 22. The situation hasn’t been different, to the best of my ability to tell, in other European countries, although the harder-hit areas like Italy and Spain were generally first to implement measures.
I think I misunderstood you—measures were, of course, enacted during the increase, and showed their impact in the reversal of daily death rates.
Meaning you are sure that the ‘reversal’ was down to their impact, or at least mostly so, and it just took it a fair amount of time?
Sure? I don’t see how I could be. Correlation, causation, all that. But it’s definitely the way the evidence points—in particular when taking the US case to hand, where many claimed that the easing of restrictions came too early in lots of places, and we did in fact see the increase that would be expected if the measures were what kept case counts low.
Two days later (7/30) Florida reports 252 deaths setting their all time single day record for the third straight day.
Here’s the trajectory they are on. This plot does not include the reported deaths from 7/30.
Today is the 30th and they haven’t posted their deaths yet. I don’t know where you get 252. Thursday tends to be a high number day.
Here’s the last 7 days
173 133 125 77 78 186 216
That’s an average of 141.