New infections among residents at long-term care facilities in Florida rose by 142% or 2,819 cases between July 1 and July 21, while the increase among staff rose 121% or 3,882 cases.
I hope you are right that things won’t get much worse in Florida. I fear you are wrong.
No you didn’t “simply” make an observation. You accused other posters of political motivations or being drawn in by media hype. Here is your quote:
You can scroll up and look for yourself if you don’t believe me. We all told you that your data analyzation techniques were poor, New Jersey was nothing to worry about, and Florida and Texas were in bad shape. Now that you know that we were right and you were wrong, maybe you can take a look back at the things we were saying and learn from that. Considering your most current prediction for Florida, I think you still don’t understand the trends.
Using the seven most recent data points for the seven day average seems like a pretty easily defensible thing to do, especially when I’m being crystal clear about what I’m doing.
I guess you could say that today’s 7-day avg is 141.1 while tomorrow’s will be 152.4, but I don’t know what we gain by that.
I’m pretty sure the number Florida is going to report for 7/30 is 252. Different states do things differently, but Florida puts up a number once a day in the morning most days. Florida is most likely done for the day. Occasionally a small adjustment comes in later, but the final reported number is quite likely to be 252 or only slightly different than that. It’s very unlikely to be different enough to have much effect of the seven day average.
I didn’t know Florida posted numbers in the morning. When I pull state numbers I have to wait close to midnight to get a decent account from all of them.
252 wouldn’t be out of line for a Thursday given their trend. That would put the 7 day average at 151.
The nursing home info doesn’t bode well at all. That’s where the resources should have been focused on.
My state assigned a hospital to each nursing home as a point of interface. I don’t know if it’s working but it makes sense to link a medical institution to them instead of waiting for the ambulance to arrive.
Here is the current seven day average of deaths per day per million with week over week relative change also included. Arizona, in the top spot, may have leveled off. A bunch of the other bad states are still climbing pretty quickly.
Seems like if you combined elements of these two tables you might get something a bit more illustrative? I mean to say, I guess what we are looking for is places where July deaths are a smaller percentage of total deaths but are also high per capita. I can see, for example, that MA is at 6.45% for July but I don’t know offhand how to interpret their number of 555.
So have there been any states (or countries) that got hit hard and are now seeing a second wave of deaths within the same population? There are definitely places that recently went through what appears to be a first wave - eg: South Carolina, California, Arizona. However, most of the charts I’ve seen of places that already got hit resemble New York, New Jersey, or Massachusetts.
@DSeid has mentioned to keep an eye on Louisiana, as a state that was part of the initial surge in the US and later started to trend up again. I haven’t looked at their graph in a while. I suppose you have to be careful looking at certain states as a whole, in the same way you do with some countries, since their population – and their spread – may be heterogenous. Maybe New Orleans had a bad outbreak of its own early on, while the rest of the state was relatively spared at the time. I have no idea.
I suppose you have to be careful looking at certain states as a whole, in the same way you do with some countries, since their population – and their spread – may be heterogenous. Maybe New Orleans had a bad outbreak of its own early on, while the rest of the state was relatively spared at the time. I have no idea.
Yes, that’s more or less exactly what happened. New Orleans did get a second surge of cases, but not at the level of places that hadn’t been hit at all before. The NYT has county-level maps which can be really useful for seeing local patterns. Here’s Louisiana.
Some of the states have low populations and their numbers swing wildly so comparisons between states don’t really mean much. What is important is the state/region’s trends.
The 7 day average death per million rankings as of yesterday:
Something I find really disturbing is Sturgis. It’s a 10 day motorcycle festival that could draw a half million people from all over into South Dakota for concerts and general social gatherings.
Local news programs reporting from Sturgis said 60% of the residents wanted it cancelled. One can only assume that the other 40% wants the cash the rally generates.
