My specific speculation was that relative to other states having their first wave they’d be less severe. Good point about regional differences within the state (and analysis by @Fretful_Porpentine), but even at the state level I think it can be seen.
See Florida for comparison. Deaths started to increase on cue three weeks after rates went up and are now on the 7 day average still rising at 8.61. (If they follow the drop in case numbers by 3 weeks should be dropping off this week.)
Arizona’s death rates still not dropping much
Louisiana in comparison didn’t start a rise in death rates until a few days past that 3 week mark, and had a spike that got up there but very briefly, about a week, before dropping quickly, even though reported case numbers kept increasing.
OTOH South Carolina’s death rate curve isn’t so much worse looking (to date) than Louisiana’s recent one despite it being in its first wave.
Laconia Bike Week here in New Hampshire is still happening too, delayed from June to two weeks from now. Guess we need to get our covid case numbers up… People who don’t wear helmets are not going to wear masks.
Illinois peaked in deaths in May with over 100 per day for three weeks. The death rate is now in the teens per day yet the number of infections has been going steadily upwards since mid June, close to tripling since then. One would think the deaths would have started trending up by now.
I hear you, and I’m not saying I think it’s crazy for you to ask that (and certainly not for you to think it), but one thing I’ve been wondering when I read similar sentiments, on this board and elsewhere, is this: Isn’t that, fundamentally, a kind of conspiracy theory?
Not that it’s right or wrong even if it is, but perhaps it’s somewhat enlightening on the ‘standards of debate’ for this entire thing – as in, if it’s okay to wonder something like that in a certain context, then maybe it’s also okay to wonder some of the other things that others do.
Conspiracy theories tend to lack credible evidence or are incapable of explaining data that does not fit.
The trend for every administered area, beit state or nation is for a fast increase with a peak and a much more steady decline, so any area that does not conform to that profile is worthy of closer examination.
Now look at Florida, the rise in cases follows the established pattern, and the decline is starting to look the same way - a bit early to tell.
Fatalities however are very different, there is the familiar rise but the decline is different to absolutely everywhere that this virus has struck
Jones has said her superiors at the Health Department asked her in late April to falsify statistics, such as what percentage of coronavirus tests showed positive results. DeSantis wanted the state’s public-facing website to show that the percentage of positive tests over two weeks were below 10 percent even if the numbers were higher, she said.
If it is on state land, the governor could certainly not make the land available for the rally. That has been happening all over the country. Cancelling a day before might have been tough, but it is not like this wasn’t seen as a problem a long time ago.
Most contracts involve clauses freeing the organization of financial obligations due to such cancellations.
It’s not like this would have been the first event cancelled due to Covid after all.
Where do you see the difficulty?
Nicely stated. You left out the ability to control bars by threatening liquor licenses.
Execution. The number of people attending is estimated to be half of the 500K that normally attend. But that’s still 250,00 geriatric rebels without a clue with significant number of them belonging to clubs. And while Sturgis is ground zero (pun intended) it’s spread out all over the state due to the number of people involved.
I can see that, but if the cancellation was early enough the number of visitors would be reduced by a lot. If you cancel just days before, I agree with you that the large number of people with no where to go would be a problem.
It would cut the number down more. they’re already expecting half the number that usually attend. Looking at the demographics there are a substantial number of Harley Davidson riders who attend. And of them, a substantial number don’t wear helmets.
Unfortunately, it’s such a financial juggernaut that for all practical purposes it IS the town.
My understanding is that they are worried that if they “cancel” it, they might have 125K STILL show up, but now there’s no temporary toilets, no health stations, no additional security. It’s a plague of locusts.
Problem is that when you look specifically at Florida you’ll see the pattern of fatalities vs infections are not consistant.
The death rate has fallen, but its the way it has fallen - first it rose in a similar way to everywhere else from early July through to the end it went up from 17 to 256 - pretty fast but in line with other outbreaks, but it has fallen from 245 in early August to 96 just 6 days later.
This is not the pattern that we have seen anywhere else, it has actually fallen faster than it rose.
When you look at the corresponding infection data, what you see is a rise from early June of around 1000 cases per day through to around 11000 per day in mid July and then took another 3 weeks to decline to 6500 cases per day for August 11th.
If you take the usual time for recored infection to fatality its usually about 3 to four weeks, so looking back what we see today is this dramtic decline in deaths from a period in time when infections were averaging around 10000 per day - infections at that time were not declining at all, and yet the corresponding deaths 3 weeks later is not only falling, it has jumped off a cliff.
Its worth noting that this pattern is not replicated anywhere else in the world, not in nations with younger populations nor in nations with healthcare systems that are at least as advanced as the US.
In other words Florida figures are a fabrication.
Florida has history of manipulating its coronavirus data, also worth noting that Florida is an extremely significant part of the US electroal college in the US presidential elections and is a heavily Trump supporting state.
All the data and the background of Florida provide the motive and the evidence of data corruption.
I would be interested in any reaslitic evidence to the contrary - but to me it looks like a blatent cover up for electoral purposes.
Florida as done a poor job with the accuracy of their case reporting. Example. I don’t know how widespread it is but there seems to be a lack of accuracy for test results. When a lab or hospital reports their results and they fall well outside the norm they should be questioned. If the cite I listed is accurate than a rate of 18% is the norm for positive results on the tests. Anything reported that is significantly different either way should be reviewed.
And Florida’s death rate is all over the map. Here’s the month of August:
Aug 2 & 3 - deaths reported over the weekend. Aug 4 & 5 - weekend deaths “caught up.” Aug 9 & 10 - 7 days later. Aug 11 & 12 - should be the same thing. Can see a similar cycle in almost any state.
Doesn’t your much vaunted 7 day running average, which used to be your much-vaunted 10 day running average, smooth out those inconsistencies and cover for the weekend drops?
Oh, PoppaSan’s just beat me to it. Yeah, what we both says.
Here are the current seven day averages of deaths per day per million along with week over week change. It seems like, for the most part, the worst states have at least leveled off.
I’m happy to plot the time series of any particular state upon request.