This is the key, I think. Take the number of restaurants in your area, times the amount of food normally served through them, and now turn that into retail consumption. This requires different levels of prep, (the average consumer won’t butcher the meat themselves) labeling, and packaging.
Take a 10-restaurant route for a meat delivery service. They might make 10 deliveries of 100 pounds each, with the customer dividing the meat into the different cuts. To make that a grocery store delivery, you need 1-2 pound packages, already divided, with proper FDA labeling and oh, by the way, they need 3,000 pounds per day, not your usual 1,000. (These numbers are all examples pulled from the air - you see what I mean.)
So you need a semi, not a panel truck, and a new packaging machine, and new certifications for your food handling staff.
It’s going to take a while for that food pipeline to mesh into the grocery store line is all I’m saying. The majority of producers will opt to put that food into a freezer and wait it out.
So, will we starve? No, of course not. But we might lose weight, or get very bored indeed with the foodstuffs available to us. The next few months could get ugly, and having alternative sourcing strategies in your back pocket could be important. My kingdom for a Restaurant Depot membership card.
Merchants may have to establish quantity limits, until people come back to their senses, for things like TP and cleaning supplies (and ammunition ), to prevent the cleanout hoarders.
For food there is the aforementioned rationale of “I’ll get enough to last me the whole month” but also mentioned has been how for a lot of people, half their meals in a given week happened outside the home – school lunch, plant cafeteria, coffee & sandwich shop, fast food. Now they are stuck having to feed the whole family three squares a day every day and they run down the pantry fast.
Ordinarily, toilet paper supplies would rebound quickly after the hoarding frenzy, but I heard there’s an outbreak of a virulent strain of Dutch Elm disease caused by the Chinese Giant Flying Squirrel that will necessitate quarantining all the toilet paper trees.
I’m kidding.
In support of this. at the store this morning they were out of chicken and eggs, easy things for novices to cook. They had plenty of scallops.
But some is definitely panic buying. They were out of bottled water and water jugs. These are good things to store in earthquake country, but our sinks work and will continue to work, so a run on them seems weird.
There do seem to be some supply chain problems though, since some deliveries were late.
I’m seeing the water bounce back. It’s still on the shelves. I use distilled water for a BPAP machine and I like to keep a reasonable stock of it on hand. Not really sure how much I use in a week but I have 3 or 4 gallons of it. Oddly it seems to make a difference which brand you buy. Some of them have a smell to them and I don’t want to be inhaling whatever it is.
I have seen tp from time to time but it still seems to be the #1 hording item. I bought some extra back in January when China started shutting down flights. Even though I thought I’d be working at home I didn’t think about using more of it on a daily basis.
Other than paper items and hand cleaner I haven’t seen any items that couldn’t be substituted for by something else.
This might not work for some kinds of foods with limited shelf life (like bread). I have a hunch that some of these panic buyers are buying much more of perishable items than they can consume within the time of those items’ shelf lives. Thus, I think a lot of food is going to be wasted.
Sydney supermarkets have been rationing items per customer for the past week or more. 1 packet of toilet paper per transaction; 2 packs of tissues, flour, rice pasta and many other things. They are closing two hours earlier and opening an hour later to give staff time to restock. The shelves are still emptied every day.
This is similar to the gas shortage in the 70’s with long lines at gas stations. There was a slight drop in availability but the issue was exasperated by human nature in that almost everyone wanted a full tank most of the time, just in case.
So Costco seems to be taking a hardline against people who bought too much toilet paper. Good for them, there was never any reason to stock up in the first place.
Good to know. I planted half the rolls I picked up at Costco before the crisis. Now I’ll be sure to put squirrel-proof screening around the sapplings. This is a fast-growing variety so I should be harvesting small rolls by early June. Hopefully unnecessary but it’s good to be prepared
Uhhh…all that article says is Costco won’t be accepting returns on some items. Not unreasonable (returns can be risky for the seller), but remember that the entire business plan of Costco is to sell in quantity.
What *you *are doing is prudent stocking up for a rainy day; what your neighbor is doing is wasteful hoarding.
Sam’s Club is limiting a lot of food products including produce and all paper products - one per customer.
Our next-door neighbor works at a local grocery store. He said that the amount of toilet paper they sold in one week equaled what they normally sell in a year!
But part of Costco’s business plan is accepting returns no questions asked. I’ve taken back some stuff a year later that I didn’t use and the accepted the return no questions asked. This is significant change to policy. But, its most likely temporary and only to keep people from clogging the return lane and exposing people to the virus.
We’re thinking of making a Costco run in about an hour - should be interesting. We’ll be looking for produce, maybe some meat, and some shelf-stable foods such as rice and canned goods. Maybe a 6-pack of caskets while we’re there :D.
In the middle of last week, I started a Peapod (grocery delivery) order. The first delivery slot I could reserve was for this coming Saturday - because I’m not the only one ordering food, it seems. Luckily we can add to the order as we go, so everyone in the household has my password and can add things. I’ve noticed that many common things are becoming harder to find there - e.g. no boneless chicken (oddly, I can get ground beef).
I think the software must have some prediction capability in place: there are things that I could find when I first started ordering (mint chocolate chip ice cream being the one I remember most clearly), and placed in my cart, that no longer show up as available when I do a search. The ice cream is still in my cart - so I must have snagged one of the last few cartons they expected to have available. Hopefully what that means is that if I am able to add something to my cart, I’m likelly to get it even if the delivery is 10 days later.
I’m twitchy about my daughter. She is in a small town in Vermont (one of the largest towns in the state, though) and is not that good at stocking up - plus she’s moving to a new apartment this week so really can’t stock up. She’s started trying to make her own bread since it’s a bit hard to get there.
My son works in a plant that makes the flavored tube steaks like Cheddarwurst and Italian sausages for major retail chains such as Aldi’s and Kroger’s plus many regional store chains. Normally they have about 3-4 week supply in the warehouse freezer to guard against supply disruptions and as a buffer switching over to other flavors. He was told that the buffer is almost gone. They are trying to ramp up manpower to get their new plant fully operational. ATM it’s a skeleton crew on a shakedown / training startup. The old plant was slated to be closed but that is now on hold hence the need for more help.
I make deep fried appetizers at my plant. We are busy repackaging product slated for restaurants and commercial vendors into family sized retail packaging. Mainly this is taking product from unlabeled large bags and running them back through the baggers to put it in properly labelled* smaller bags. Our retail customers also cannot keep up with demand. A sizable minority of our business was retail which leaves a lot of commercial sales not happening. We are planning for a slowdown. We have also slowed down due to number of people taking leave to care for their kids not in school or daycare anymore. Starting today 15-20% of our production was idled.
*cooking instructions, allergens, ingredients, nutritional data, name brand
I belong to a bunch of cooking Facebook groups, and I feel like I’ve reposted instructions for how to make your own sourdough starter about half a billion times in the past few days. Even people who have a bag of flour in the house may not have yeast.
), to prevent the cleanout hoarders.