One thing I’ve noticed, and and don’t have any empirical statistics to back it up, but it seems that if a team has an easy score on the first series of downs they will either blow out the other team or lose. It rarely ends in a close game that the first scoring team wins. Tonight Utah State scored a touchdown on an 80 yard run from scrimmage on the first play yet managed to lose the game. I seem to have seen this type of thing time and time again. If it’s a mismatch the team that found the easy score will pile it on. On the other hand, if the other team is actually competitive they will somehow negate the easy TD and find a way to win. I am always suspect of the eventual outcome when a team has an early, seemingly easy score on the first series of downs.
I’d imagine compiling statistics on that sort of thing would be tough, and there are plenty of examples that on the face of things support what you say, but I say it’s still confirmation bias. You don’t have the time to watch every game, and you don’t hear about all hundred-plus games that are played at the college level every week. It’s easier at the pro level with 16 games at most every week, but at that level what you say is far less likely to be true.
As it happens, the good teams usually win and the bad teams usually lose, no matter who scores first. That’s why upsets are notable, and that’s why it seems like your theory is true. A lousy team returns the kickoff for a touchdown then never again crosses the 50, or a powerhouse scores on their first play from scrimmage and wins by 35. Given the lack of good matchups in FBS college football overall because of top-25 teams wanting to remain top-25 teams and scheduling cupcakes, blowouts are very common, and if the cupcake gets lucky and scores early that would tend to lend credibility to your theory, even though they were doomed before the game even started to lose by 30.
I appreciate what you are saying. I really do. But it seems to me that the same thing happens in the NFL. An early, easy score is a big reason to cheer but it seems to have little to do with the eventual outcome of the game. Either the team to score easily on the first possession brings on a blowout or they lose. That first possession score really doesn’t determine the outcome.
For me, it’s at the point that when a team scores easily on the first possession I’m ready to bet against them unless I think that the two teams are totally mismatched.
One question worth asking is: what percentage of games are actually close? I suspect it’s less than half, if so, more games are blowouts one way or another. That means it really is irrelevant, as the odds are that it will be a blowout no matter what happens on the first possession.
I don’t know of any way to get good data on this, but I just wanted to say it reeks of confirmation bias.
How memorable is it when a good team scores quickly and then grinds out a tough win? Not very. Conversely, both quick-score blowouts and quick-score losses are much more memorable.
One of the most famous college football games of recent times, the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, had Boise State scoring quickly (on their first position on a 50-yard pass) only to have Oklahoma come back in the second half. But Boise State won in OT.
Anecdotaly, I think the most memorable recent example is last year’s Auburn/Alabama game. That had both elements. When Alabama scored early and often (first three possessions) it looked like a blowout. Still, they managed to lose. That was a real stunner.
No, I’m saying that they will either win by a blowout because the easy first score is the result of a mismatch or, if the teams are evenly matched, the team that scores easily on the first series will likely lose the game.
This is pretty fuzzy. How do you define the difference between an “easy” score and a non-easy one? What is the precise definition of a blowout? I think there is a lot of potential for subconscious goalpost-moving to make a given observation agree with the theory.
It seems to me that an “easy first score” is an indication that that team’s significantly better than the other, no? In which case, one would expect a blowout win. It’s at the very least not significantly worse than the other team, in which case one shouldn’t expect a blowout loss. Heck, just the fact that they scored at all makes some definitions of a “blowout loss” impossible.
An easy first drive is a touchdown that is scored with either very few plays or a drive that consistently eats up yardage and makes the defense of the other team look as if they can’t stop them.