For those of you who like numbers and simulations.
Inexact, to be sure (last year, a team beat 4.5% odds given by this system to get into the playoffs), but kind of interesting to think about nonetheless.
At a glance, I like the Packers to beat their 21.9% odds here to get in if Rodgers can be back in time for Thanksgiving (if he’s out much longer than that, they’re screwed), and the Ravens chances are probably a little underrated at 14%.
On the other side of the coin - as much as I hate to say it, I don’ t think the Bears really have a 39.3% chance at getting in, and I think that the Cowboys are way overrated at 59.5% (but I guess somebody has to win that division).