For All Mankind (spoilers)

The problem with FAM is that it started out as mundane science fiction, if not explicitly than at least in execution. Mundane SF has “a believable use of technology and science as it exists at the time the story is written or a plausible extension of existing technology”. With your story grounded in real-world physics then questions about how they are going to solve a problem matter. But when you abandon that basis in plausible reality, the questions no longer matter.

How are the are the astrocosmokoreanauts going to survive 2 years on Mars? They are going to survive it by some hand-waving and barely mentioned/explained method that wouldn’t actually work. It doesn’t matter what it is, because it isn’t rooted in reality. Once you abandon real-world plausible solutions your might as well be Star Trek and come up with a new element/radiation type/polarity reversal in the final act of the episode that saves the day.

It is the same as with mysteries—once you start using solutions that aren’t possible and aren’t predictible, then there is no longer any point in thinking about what the solution will be.

I agree with you in general, but not in specific. There are plenty of examples of FAM recently abandoning its tenuous connection with scientific plausibility… the North Korean guy surviving, and the entire hotel crisis this season most notably.

But do we know how long any of the missions were originally planned for? I’m assuming at least months, no point in going to Mars for a week. And the food would always have a hefty safety margin to begin with. Add those together, subtract the dead people, add in strict rationing, add in a sudden massive push to grow as much in the greenhouse as they can… certainly doesn’t seem laughably out of scope to me.

The Martian has prepared most viewers to accept that survival on Mars is possible under even the most dire lack of resources.

Yes, we do. Launch windows open every 26 months, and travel time is 7 to 9 months. Anything that does not fit those numbers doesn’t fit reality.

Also, on the show this is actually mentioned, with rushing to meet specific launch windows. And with the Helios CEO talking about the nuclear ship he wanted to build that could ignore launch windows. So the show seemed to actually go out of its way to not mention mission times, but those are what they would be without ignoring reality.

So, say it took 9 months to get there. I don’t know how soon Kelly got pregnant after landing, but she obviously reached full term, so they were at least 18 months into that launch window period. That means waiting another 8 months for the next window to open plus another 9 months for the rescue mission to reach them (assuming one was ready to launch in time).

And the FAM Martians don’t have to make their own water by burning hydrazine and oxygen!

It seems to me the North Koreans were on a suicide mission. There was no return capability at all. Their job was to get there first for the glory of the state, and do a bit of science and report back. But there was no possibility of any kind of return. Hence the suicide gun being provided for them.

That makes the mission more plausible. If it had a big service module attached full of food (and something was attached to the human capsule), it might be enough food and water to get them to Mars and let them live for a few weeks. Maybe they were promised a follow-up resupply mission.

As for the plausibility of the rest of the base surviving, they have a bunch of stored food and a greenhouse. Certainly not a big enough greenhouse to provide food for all of them, but discovering liquid water would help a lot. They have organic material in the form of a bunch of dead bodies they can compost, plus the waste from all of them including the ones who are now dead.

Also, we don’t kmow what next season will bring. Perhaps the opening crisis is that they don’t have enough food, and Dev will get his nuclear engine going and be able to leave in time to help them without waiting for a Hohmann transfer window.

As we diverge more from ‘our’ reality, I suspect the writers to take a little more liberty with the science and engineering like they did with the space hotel. But I don’t care if the science is perfect; I loved the Martian, but the opening sandstorm that triggered the crisis was nonsense and Andy Weir kmew it. I can forgive things like that if they are needed to advance the plot and are done sparingly.

Next season will be after the time jump to 2003. So this current crisis will be people saying “hey, remember back when…”. There may be stautes involved.

You can believe, as Alice said, six impossible things before breakfast but a work of fiction generally loses credibility after three or even two. That said, you may be able to get a resupply vessel there in 9 months or maybe the North Koreans have one already in transit that the combined group can go after. Hey, they get to be space pirates too.

Perhaps the Phoenix craft sent down additional supplies before heading back to Earth?

How? No lander.

Spin the carousel so fast it can shoot cans of baked beans at the surface of Mars, duh.

That’s another issue. The Phoenix would not be able to head back to Earth as soon as Kelly was on board. It would have to wait in orbit until the normal return window opened, however many months later that was. The duration of missions is decided by Johannes Kepler, not by the crew.

As I remember, she was shown holding the baby with Mars in the window behind her. So the baby was born in Mars’ orbit.

The doctor said the fetus would be at least a month premature.

One of the Helios crew guys said it would take a year and a half for Sojourner 2 to pick them up.

You should have moved on from reality when you saw fusion power and video Newtons and iPods living side by side in the 1990s.

Well, I binged the whole thing over the past several days. Enjoyable for the most part, but very flawed.

Season 3 is an example of “be careful what you wish for”. I watched the first two seasons thinking “I wish they’d dial down the soap opera bullshit from 95% down to about 70%, with the rest being more sci-fi action”. And, well, they more or less did that. But the lack of realism really undercuts the whole thing.

It felt like they were on the right hard-science track, too, so I don’t know what happened. I loved seeing the Sea Dragon show up. I’d have traded the whole dead child subplot with one where Robert Truax has to argue the case for building the Sea Dragon in the first place, then showing him succeeding with ocean launch and a few other things, and eventually convincing the right people to build the damn thing. Instead the thing just appears with no real explanation, and the reason for its existence seems to be radiation concerns (stupid) instead of being cheap, superheavy launch.

They should have skipped the real-world Shuttle completely, and gone straight for the nuclear model. Their design was chubby enough to have reasonable internal tankage, which alongside the efficiency of a nuclear engine probably could have gotten it to the Moon. Well, not with an air launch. They could have put it on top of the Sea Dragon, though. There’s no reason for the original Shuttle to have ever existed in their world.

90% of the Mars stuff was… ugh. I’m ok if stuff fails the napkin math test, as long as it’s kinda close. But much of that was just obvious nonsense. Plus the stupidity of somehow GPS and the radar altimeters of both vehicles failing as they’re landing… even though it’s just a stupid dust storm. Absurd.

I liked the idea of the North Korean suicide run, and it might have even worked had they thought things through better. But come on; there wasn’t enough room to even take their suits off in that capsule. 9 months of shit and piss aren’t going to fit in there even if they tried. They could have added some low-tech improvements like an inflatable habitat to give themselves a bit more room. And some extra crates, janky solar modules, and so on at the landing site.

One frustrating thing about the show is that there’s an absolute wealth of didn’t-quite-happen space projects they could have drawn from, but largely didn’t. Getting Sea Dragon in there was commendable. But how about, say, the LESS–a folding Lunar launch system designed for emergencies. Or the MOOSE; a little one-man inflatable descent system. Maybe some upgraded launchers in the form of the Nova vehicles. And so on. All stuff that went through enough real-world design to pass the sniff test, and with plenty of opportunity for driving the plot.

The show could stand to have a few more good and competent characters. Poole seems the only one left at this point. Everyone else is completely cynical, unstable, or both.

I do like the whole alternate timeline business. Where it’s different, where it isn’t, etc.

I enjoyed the season, but Dr. Strangelove’s points are all well taken. When they were still in the very near future it was a lot easier to stay grounded in the science. But as we veer farther and farther into something different the writers will have more latitude to make stuff up instead of relying on existing plans for things like Sea Dragon that had already been worked out.

The question is whether the writers have the science chops to continue to write good stories while being forced to come up with new concepts for spaceships and such. I hope so, but this is Hollywood we’re talking about.

Still, I have enjoyed the show and I’m still looking forward to next season.

Yeah, I enjoyed it overall–I definitely like the alt-history stuff, and think that most of the political stuff is pretty believable. Well, except for the USSR actually becoming an economic superpower. Winning the race to the Moon might have actually accelerated their economic decline since they couldn’t have just quietly canceled the program and pretended it never existed.

It’s more disappointing than anything else that they got so many details wrong, since not only has there been a tremendous amount of design work done with regards to Mars missions, but even more speculative stuff like ISRU has pretty much been worked out. Zubrin and many others have written books on it. They threw in a few keywords like “methane” but without much idea why it was useful. Methane doesn’t compete with nuclear, at any rate.

People often say these kinds of flaws are acceptable as long as they drive the plot forward, but I see that as mostly a false dichotomy. Real-world effects are plenty exciting, plot-wise. It’s just more work to make things accurate, and might exclude certain plotlines.

There are plenty of realistic directions they could go toward from here when it comes to Mars. The search for life, how to grow from a few habitat modules to a full-fledged colony, bringing the costs down enough to make it all sustainable, the political issues around having an off-world colony, and so on. Hopefully they listen more closely to their advisors next season.