This isn’t a debate…I’m simply asserting that Mankind in the form of the US, Russians, Chinese or someone else IS going to send a manned flight to Mars. And it won’t simply be a flags and foot prints mission. Both NASA and the Russian Space Agency are saying the short duration mission is far to risky than the longer stay mission…so astronauts are going to be on the surface of Mars for months. This is, IMHO, going to happen…and unless I’m quite unlucky and get caught in a gang war at my next family reunion, it’s going to happen in my life time.
The Moon will be the first step in each of the 3 current contenders program: The Russians and the US are both projecting a mission for the late teens to early 20’s. China has a bit bolder of a plan (2017 IIRC), but I’m not sure if they are a serious contender…I guess time will tell.
And there is the are wild cards in the race for both the moon and Mars…the Europeans and Japanese. Which way will they jump? Will they team up to form their own Mars mission or will they through their hat and resources into the ring of one of the other contenders?
Watching Mars rising these last few weeks has given me a sense that a mission to Mars is an event who’s time has come. I’m seeing a serious development of critical mass on this issue that hasn’t been seen in quite a while. This LOOKS serious to me…and I think it will happen.
What will they find? How many will die? How many missions will fail? Will it all be worth it? These are debate questions that have been talked about before. Feel free to talk about them again here if you like. For my part, I’m just witnessing here…humans WILL go to Mars in my lifetime! We WILL over come the truely daunting problems and engineering challenges. Whether it is Americans, Russians, Chinese, or a combination of several space programs, it WILL happen. And it will be glorious and terrible. Men and women will die. Whole crews will be wiped out. Unexpected disasters will hover continuously, waiting for the mere chance to strike. But such a mission to Mars will have a HUGE effect on all of the peoples of the world, no matter who ultimately goes. It will be the biggest event in human history I think…the most watched, the most talked about, the most cheered over, the most cried over.
I’m confident seeing how Russia and the US are looking at the problem is such different ways, but are also looking at what the OTHER guy is doing, that while the trip will have it’s share of risks, we will do it anyway.
If we’re witnessing, I’ll say that I find the idea of a human being being on the moon in the late teens or early twenties is laughable. It’s 2007. There is no funding or (more importantly) desire to do anything in space. Until both of those things change, no one is going farther than LEO. And I don’t see either changing in the next couple of decades. I’d love to be wrong, however.
Also, going to the moon and then to Mars in a reasonable timeframe will be incredibly risky. Politicians won’t be willing to do anything bold, because America hates few things more than dead astronauts. Especially if they’re stranded on Mars for a few months because a gasket broke, with no hope of a rescue mission, until they run out of some precious consumable and slowly and painfully die. It doesn’t play well in Peoria.
If we launch a Mars mission in 2032, I’ll be 45. I can get a buzzcut and command the mission, if the need arises. My first words on Mars would be “F1rst p0st!!” It’d be funny.
:dubious: Glorious indeed. (Yes, I know you meant that to be the “terrible” part, but a lot of people would have trouble including an adjective like “glorious” in any description of such an event.)
I don’t get this. Sure, sending the first astronauts into space was exciting. So was having the first astronauts on the moon. But ISTM that by now we’ve pretty thoroughly proved the concept that we can send human beings to some non-terrestrial location and bring them back.
It’s still kind of a cool idea, but it’s certainly no longer something I’d be inclined to cheer over or cry over, much less a remotely likely candidate for the title of “biggest event in human history”.
In fact, just seeing folks walk around on Mars might not be enough to motivate me even to turn on the TV. (And this is coming from somebody who thought the Mars Rover pictures were incredibly nifty and went to the NASA website to see them.)
I’m more confident that in my lifetime, the world will regress and Peak Oil, AGW, WWIII and the like will make the likelihood of a successful manned Mars programme such as xtisme envisions vanishingly minute.
And even if by some miracle it succeeds? Most of the people in the world won’t even know - they’ll be too busy scrabbling & dying in their Third World hellholes and Asian sweatshops to notice, even if they had the means to be informed - just like they were for Sputnik and Apollo. Most of the human race still lives in the Middle Ages - your Arean Dream is as fantastic and foreign as Star Trek to them.
Going to Mars is a luxury which We (collective human We) have little use for. Use better robot probes instead. They do better science, IMO. Save the big feel-good propaganda Bread & Circuses projects for Earth, where there’s a slim chance it might actually have positive effects.
Based purely on watching ‘The West Wing’, won’t Congress veto spending billions on a trip to Mars when they could have all that pork for their own districts? :rolleyes:
What do mean by “no funding”? The Ares/Orion are being built right now by Lockheed.
They’re not building it out of the goodness of their heart; someone is paying.
Why? Do you think there is nothing left to learn in trips to the moon?
Um…do you have a cite or something logical to back this statement up? Not only is the US funding programs looking into a moon mission and possible Mars mission after that, but both the Russians AND the Chinese (not to mention the Europeans and Japanese) are all funding programs dealing with manned space flight. The Chinese in particular have a much more aggressive program for getting to the moon before either the US or Russians do…and they are certainly funding it. Big time.
Simply put, as of this moment, you ARE wrong. You may become right (at least wrt the US) when we get a new president in a year.
Could you expand on this?
YMMV of course. I think that sending astronauts back to the moon will be fairly big news even in our jaded times. Sending them to Mars will be…much more. I think with the way communications now span the globe that landing 6 (or whatever) astronauts on Mars will be HUGE, world wide. It’s not just a few techno-geeks or Star Trek wannabes who are interested in human exploration…IMHO.
I totally disagree. I think this IS the biggest event in human history. Our first steps into the greater solar system. It’s dangerous. It’s risky. It’s high drama. AND there is the potential of finding life on another planet…let alone humans setting foot on another planet, exploring another planet, taking us all with them in spirit at least (and electronically of course).
When a little rover lands on Mars and sends back pictures there is quite a stir…it will be SO much more so for humans to do so. Especially since this won’t simply be a flags and foot prints mission. I think people will go nuts, regardless of which country manages to get there first.
Well, perhaps it won’t get YOU to ‘turn on the TV’, but I doubt you will be representative. Besides…we are talking about another decade from now. Maybe you’ll be able to interact with the astronauts, or see everything in 3D HD. Maybe you’ll be able to send commands to one of the robot vehicles there on Mars to check something out for yourself. Who knows what kind of digital magic will be available, how we will be able to track the lives, trials, and triumphs of their epic trip. And it will BE an epic trip. Watch Mars Rising sometime to see just how epic and dangerous it’s going to be, especially for the Russian crews.
You can keep your gloom and doom…I’ll take a positive vision of the future (peak oil? gods…)
I don’t think it’s a matter of ‘if’ we are going to Mars…short of a global catastrophe I think we (the US, Russia, China, Japan, Europe, or some combination of those) ARE going to Mars…this century. I think the critical mass for such a venture is nearly the point of no return…someone is going there. At this point, I don’t really care if it’s Chinese astronauts that first set foot on Mars…I’ll be cheering my head off and learning all about them. Humans ARE going to Mars, and the only question I have is…will I still be wandering about the world when they get there.
Complete gloom and doom horseshit. Digital media has penetrated into parts of the world that couldn’t have even dreamed about it during Apollo…and look how much world wide support that got. Third world countries and Asian sweatshops aren’t new…they weren’t invented this decade. You think they are worse than during the time of Apollo or Sputnik?? Really?
I seriously think that some of you have a skewed view point of what people in third world countries are capable of caring about…and understanding I’ve been to places that barely had running water…yet they had electricity and internet connectivity. And you would be surprised as to what those poor ‘Middle Ages’ peasants ACTUALLY care about, and know. I’m sure you didn’t mean it this way (IIRC you are from Africa somewhere, not the US/Europe), but to me what you are saying here is back handed cultural arrogance. Like saying that my family who still live in Mexico and scratch out a living there couldn’t hope to understand such a mission enough to care about it, couldn’t set aside their brutish existence to think of something beyond pulling weeds in the field or working in that sweat shop.
my reasoning says that a manned Marsmission is simply not worth the risk. Our presnt rocket technology isn’t reliable enough to guarantee a return trip. Plus, a robot-based mission is so much cheaper. And Dr. Zubrin aside, I can’t see sending an automatic rocket fuel plant to Mars-what if the thing doesn’t work?
By the way, what plan did NASA have, if the Apollo astronauts were starnded on the moon? Suppose the LEM didn’t fire up for the return trip-were the guys on the moon expected tocommit suicide? Think of it-we have a single guy return to earth, and two gys waiting out their oxygen, dying on the moon-what a PR disaster! Only with Mars, the danger will be much greater.
I think it’s even more dangerous to NOT go. One big war, one big climate change, one big asteroid… could wipe us all out. We need to spread out, and fast.
Staying here with the covers pulled over our heads will just get us killed.
I think you are missing the point here. We aren’t debating whether we should go to Mars, whether it’s too risky, etc etc. I’m telling you that we ARE going to Mars, despite the possible risk, despite whether or not people think it’s necessary, or a good thing. We ARE GOING.
I’m witnessing, ehe? So this is more a faith based assertion of my belief…though I think based on what I’ve been reading and watching lately that it’s at least minimally grounded in reality.
Well, lets see…I’ve put in networks in India (in the 80’s-90’s), Libya and Jordan (and Kuait, but that’s not exactly ‘third world’), in Poland (it was pretty 'third world’ish when I was there) and Romania, and in several countries in central and south America (I can list them if you REALLY want to check my resume). Oh, and I was born in Mexico and have a lot of family that still lives there.
How about you jjimm? What ‘third world’ countries have you been too, and how does your experience differ from my own? What capacity were you there as? Were you there as a tourist or working…or a missionary or something?
I don’t want to get into third world travel one-upmanship. But can I suggest a little bit of confirmation bias on your part? As in, you say you specifically went to poor countries to install networks. Which indicates the areas of those countries you went to had some sort of infrastructure already in place.
But, outside of industrial areas - which constitutes the vast majority of the third world - people really do live in abject poverty. They don’t have running water, or electricity, and wouldn’t know an internet if one came running up and bit them. I merely question you because of your accusation of “back handed cultural arrogance”; I’m sure people from these places would care a bit about people on Mars, but if you’re scratching a living from a quarter-acre field, or walking ten miles to get water each day, I’d imagine it’s pretty low down the priority list.
I’m not trying to one-up anyone…I’m giving my own anecdotal take on things. Of COURSE my experiences are biased and not representative. I have to say that, at a guess, you’d be surprised at the number of places that DO have electricity and internet yet don’t have running water (or the village has electricity and internet at least). And IMHO, even people scratching a living or working in a sweat shop dream of better things, and THINK about better things…and WOULD be interested in the idea of men and women on Mars. I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve been to some place and seen people there wearing, say, a Dallas Cowboys shirt…or something that says Coke! on it. And who asked me if I knew this movie star, or that celebrity.
Are you saying they have attention for that kind of thing, but none to spare for humans going to Mars? Well…I don’t buy it. I think they DO know, and they DO care…and they DO understand. YMMV, and you are quite right that I’m basing my assumptions on my own, possibly (probably) flawed anecdotal experience.
But then…what are you basing YOUR opinions on? Same kind of thing?