Are you including the Pelosi Club (sorry, couldn’t be arsed to read all the pages up to this)?
Granted they are uncommitted to any candidate today but they have committed to throwing their support to whoever ends the elections with the most pledged delegates.
I hate to count chickens before they are hatched but barring a huge upset Obama should manage that easily enough. If so Obama will gain 5 supers and HRC will lose 1 (pretty sure).
If it happens that way her current lead may be considered to be 14.
No, I’m only including superdelegates who have publicly stated their endorsements (in spite of knowing that Pelosi intends to endorse Obama when the primaries are over).
This morning, on the Fox affiliate in Greensboro, they said basically the following: "There’s a huge momentum shift away from Obama coming off the PA primary. Polls a few weeks ago had him at over 20% for North Carolina, but now the latest poll shows he has dropped 3.2%!" Fuck, I guess he really will lose the nomination after all…
The latest polls have him pulling ahead (though within the margin of error) in Indiana 47/45, which is supposed to be another Hillary stronghold (she’s been up by as much as 16 points there). Even if she wins there, it will be razor thin.
She not only needs to win these contests, she needs to win them HUGE. Every contest (including Pennsylvania) that she doesn’t win by enormous margins, puts her that much farther away from the nomination.
Barack will win North Carolina. He will win Oregon. He will win Montana. He will win Guam. He may even win Puerto Rico.
He will finish the Primary season on June 3rd with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton, and the Superdelegates will never overturn that. Every major party leader has said as much.
The Clinton camp is going to try like mad to spin things on June 4th as “Neither candidate reached the required 2024 pledged delegates, therefore the primaries were a total wash and both candidates should count as even in the superdelegates’ considerations”.
It’s all good…she’s been trying to spin for months and people are really tired of it. Even if it goes to an American Idol type ending where they are both standing on stage and they announce who the nominee is I still wouldn’t be worried.
Barack had a tough week or two - he’s a big boy he can handle it and he doing a very nice job of it…this too shall pass.
Also note that while they appear to have ended the day both getting two new supers that is not the same as a wash. She needs to net two supers to each of his one to make it. The more that declare even as even splits the sooner the closer he gets to having enough total delegates.
Ah, no, I was pointing out how silly the news was. They were making a 3 percentage point shift in one poll as evidence that there was a massive momentum against him. You know, the media building a narrative and all that.
It’s sort of like the same program that shouted “COULD THERE REALLY BE A MAN ON MARS? or is it just a pile of rocks…? And how much will a TRIP TO SPACE cost you? After this message!” Then they came back with “SEE this thing circled in RED?! SOME SAY it’s a gnome, others say it’s BIG FOOT! But scientists seems to think it’s only rocks…”
