[QUOTE=DSeid]
I know that we’ve joked about this happening (after Clinton’s pursuit of them) but for real?!?
[/QUOTE]
Wow, that’s a little unnerving. As encouraging as that is, I sure hope that he discourages that delegate- it’d be dishonest not to.
[QUOTE=Burton]
Do you have children?
[/QUOTE]
No, why? Did I say something very stupid? My feeling is that, if nothing else, kids will grow up knowing that racism is something not to be expressed. That likely will lead them to *act * in a less racist way, regardless of how they may feel.
[QUOTE=Oy!]
As to why HRC is staying in, someone either in this thread or another (sorry, can’t remember) pointed out that if the contest went to the convention, everyone would be glued to their set for the length of the convention, unlike the usual year of boring speeches and a fore-ordained conclusion. What better way to get the Democratic message across to millions? As long as HRC stops the attacks on Obama, I’m perfectly happy to let it go to the convention.
[/QUOTE]
But then that leaves only 2 months for a national campaign. That’d be hard to pull off.
If she doesn’t bow out tonight and leave on a high note then June 4th.
At this point I’m sticking with she stays in until the convention. Tonight’s win will just embolden her.
And embiggen Bill.
[QUOTE=Phlosphr]
If she doesn’t bow out tonight and leave on a high note then June 4th.
[/QUOTE]
She may suspend her campaign on June 4, or soon after.
But flat out quit on June 4. Don’t hold your breath.
Some choice quotes from tonight:
“I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign,” (Clinton) told supporters in Charleston, West Virginia."
“We think we’re going to be the nominee. We’re going to make our case to the superdelegates,” (Howard Wolfson) said.
In an e-mail to supporters, the Clinton campaign called West Virginia a “tremendous victory.”, and said "“It’s clear that the pundits declaring this race over have it all wrong.”
What is wrong with Hillary and her supporters?
[QUOTE=Euphonious Polemic]
Some choice quotes from tonight:
“I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign,” (Clinton) told supporters in Charleston, West Virginia."
“We think we’re going to be the nominee. We’re going to make our case to the superdelegates,” (Howard Wolfson) said.
In an e-mail to supporters, the Clinton campaign called West Virginia a “tremendous victory.”, and said "“It’s clear that the pundits declaring this race over have it all wrong.”
What is wrong with Hillary and her supporters?
Well, I think 5 goes without saying, but I don’t think they’re delusional. I think they’re just playing out the game on the off chance that something politically catastrophic might happen to the Obama campaign. To use yet another sports analogy, you still take your swings in the last inning even if you’re behind by 20 runs.
I don’t think she’ll take it to the convention, though. I’m just about positive at this point that she’s going to take it to June 3rd and probably (finally) drop out on the 4th. It isn’t that she thinks she can do anything to win it herself anymore, but she wants to stay in pouncing position if Obama does something to lose it (something on the order of bodies being found in a crawl space or a cache of text messages between BHO and Osama bin Laden). At this point, I think they figure it’s only three more weeks, they might as well finish it out just in case lightning strikes.
With HRC staffers looking for book deals, though and James Carville saying he’s got an undated check ready to send to Obama, I think they understand it’s just academic. They have to keep up a narrative (however fanciful) to try to keep the money coming in, but I think Bubba’s face told the story last week. They know that (barring something extraordinarily dramatic) it’s over.
To put things in perspective, even with H-Rod’s blowout in WV tonight, BHO still netted more than twice as many total delegates for the week.
Okay, a new game: how many supers announce tomorrow?
Obama’s magic number is now under 144. I’m guessing that he has at least seven, maybe eight, loaded to announce tomorrow, just to make that the storyline over the next few days.
Then the regular four or so a day until Kentucky and Oregon. Clinton may get three or four over the same time period. By next Tuesday his magic number will be down to around 115 and he will pick up around 45 with his matching loss in Kentucky and win in Oregon. So by the next morning he has only 70 to go.
I’m thinking that from there enough supers declare so that South Dakota and Montana actually put him over the top. (Assuming no Clinton “suspension” before then.)
I don’t ordinarily watch TV, but I put CNN on an hour or so ago and saw a clip of Ms. Clinton speaking. She’s a cool customer, that woman.
I do hope all you *“experts” here are correct. I really, really, really do. If she was to somehow get the nomination? It doesn’t bear thinking about.
*I don’t mean to be sarky, I just couldn’t think of another word as suitable. I follow this thread very faithfully, and enjoy it very, very much.
[QUOTE=DSeid]
Obama’s magic number is now under 144. I’m guessing that he has at least seven, maybe eight, loaded to announce tomorrow, just to make that the storyline over the next few days.
[/QUOTE]
It won’t be a done deal, because as we’ve seen, super delegates can change their minds. Unless and until Obama garners enough electoral votes to go over the top, there is no fat lady singing unless HRC drops out.
[QUOTE=Oy!]
It won’t be a done deal, because as we’ve seen, super delegates can change their minds…
[/QUOTE]
While technically true, the flow has been controlled by a one way valve thus far.
I hope you’re right, Santo.
[QUOTE=vison]
I do hope all you *“experts” here are correct. I really, really, really do. If she was to somehow get the nomination? It doesn’t bear thinking about.
[/QUOTE]
Try to keep a perspective. Aside from West Virginia, here’s how they break down in terms of winning more than 60% of delegates:
Hillary
Arkansas (her home state) 70%
Obama
Illinois (his home state) 65%
Georgia 67%
Minnesota 67%
Colorado 67%
North Dakota 61%
Alaska 75%
Kansas 74%
Idaho 79%
Got it?
Superdelegate Joe Donnelly, of Indiana, declares for Obama.
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080514/NEWS0502/805140432
And now another one-and-a-half:
Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-Ind.
Democrats Abroad Chair Christine Schon Marques (1/2)
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/05/changing-the-su.html
Here’s a preview of Obama’s first day on the job next year. She surely doesn’t mean to, but she is helping Obama by dragging this out. It keeps Obama in the news and John McCain can’t get on TV these days. There will be plenty of time after she leaves to bludgeon McCain, right now every drop of ink that Hillary and Obama get is a drop that won’t be available to McCain. It also forces him to introduce himself to all the states and to answer the questions that wouldn’t have come up had she dropped out after Iowa. I think in two weeks she’ll declare victory in Kentucky and hang up the pantsuit, for now she has been effectively defanged and her growls are quite harmless.
[QUOTE=Oy!]
No, why? Did I say something very stupid? My feeling is that, if nothing else, kids will grow up knowing that racism is something not to be expressed. That likely will lead them to *act * in a less racist way, regardless of how they may feel.
[/QUOTE]
Stupid? No, but this is what you said " it’s far less likely to be passed on to the next generation. "
It is passed on, kids know what their parents feelings are regarding issues like race. It’s really not possible to keep things like that from kids.