Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking

[Lord_Ashtar]

@NurseCarmen

When do we start the “fork Macain” thread?

Have at it. I’d be interested to hear your premise.

[Wildfire_MM]

according to wikipedia there are 793 superdelegats. That mean that over 200 of them have not decided who to suport yet.

[Captain_Carrot]

@DSeid

I just want to re-emphasize, he will be going for an electoral blow-out but it won’t be easy. The “50-state” strategy is a risky approach and could backfire relatively easily over the “50-plus one” approach. I think that he can do it but it is also possible that he’ll flub it. This will not be an election for the faint of heart or those without some intestinal fortitude as well.

Nitpick: it’s not so much that he’s going for an electoral blowout as that he’s competing in every state. Even in the states he won’t win, campaigning there means that McCain will have to spend money to defend himself. Besides, he’s also building the infrastructure for long-term electoral success; sure, there’s almost no way he’ll win Idaho, but speaking there will help the Democratic Senate and House candidates, and will help the local attitude about voting for Democrats. Because, y’know, every election matters, and it just plain makes sense to work for the future as well as winning votes now.

[Fear_Itself]

@Captain Carrot

Nitpick: it’s not so much that he’s going for an electoral blowout as that he’s competing in every state. Even in the states he won’t win, campaigning there means that McCain will have to spend money to defend himself.

Which raises another point; Obama is going to be incredibly well funded. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to outspend McCain 3 to 1.

[DSeid]

@Captain Carrot

Nitpick: it’s not so much that he’s going for an electoral blowout as that he’s competing in every state. Even in the states he won’t win, campaigning there means that McCain will have to spend money to defend himself. Besides, he’s also building the infrastructure for long-term electoral success; sure, there’s almost no way he’ll win Idaho, but speaking there will help the Democratic Senate and House candidates, and will help the local attitude about voting for Democrats. Because, y’know, every election matters, and it just plain makes sense to work for the future as well as winning votes now.

My nitpick is that your comment isn’t a nitpick! It is a well reasoned and well made substantive difference of opinion. And I agree in as much that yes he will compete even where he cannot win, for the very reasons you and Fear have articulated, but I do think that he is motivated to deliver an electoral blow-out, because just as much he wants to be one of the “transformational” Presidents, and a percieved mandate is the way to accomplish that.

[DSeid]

And it begins.

[RTFirefly]

@Wildfire**MM

according to wikipedia there are 793 superdelegats. That mean that over 200 of them have not decided who to suport yet.

DemConWatch says 796 is (currently) the correct number, and gives details at the link.

DCW says that (currently) 233 supers haven’t committed to anyone. Some of those 233 are ‘add-on’ superdelegates who haven’t been selected yet.

It’s easy to tell which way the wind is blowing, though. Just this week, Obama’s picked up 18 supers, and Clinton’s picked up 1. Since NC/IN, Obama’s picked up 44, and Clinton’s picked up 3. Over the past month, it’s been 69-23, Obama. Etcetera. Clinton began February up by just shy of 100 superdelegates, but now Obama’s up by 20, so the flow’s been pretty much one way for the past 3+ months.

[asterion]

@Captain Carrot

Nitpick: it’s not so much that he’s going for an electoral blowout as that he’s competing in every state. Even in the states he won’t win, campaigning there means that McCain will have to spend money to defend himself. Besides, he’s also building the infrastructure for long-term electoral success; sure, there’s almost no way he’ll win Idaho, but speaking there will help the Democratic Senate and House candidates, and will help the local attitude about voting for Democrats. Because, y’know, every election matters, and it just plain makes sense to work for the future as well as winning votes now.

I agree that the 50-state strategy would help downticket. It may be that it’s one of those years that it doesn’t matter who’s heading the ticket and we’d still see a Democratic landslide. But the NRCC is low on money, may not be able to reload, and has already lost three special elections. Politico (yeah, I know) is reporting that the GOP thinks it could lose another 20 House seats in November. I don’t know what the numbers for the Senate look like, though I was under the impression that there are a fair amount of open and Republican-held seats.

[Liberal]

Charlotte Observer reports Obama picked up 11 delegates yesterday (wow), inclucing 4 supers and 7 Edwards delegates.

http://www.charlotte.com/559/story/626417.html

[DSeid]

More on how even significant portions of the South may be in play.

[Obama] would still have to struggle for white swing voters in the South and in border states like West Virginia, where he lost decisively to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in Tuesday’s presidential primary. In West Virginia, where more than three-fourths of white voters chose Mrs. Clinton, 20 percent of the white voters said the race of the candidate mattered in their choice.

But in Southern states with large black populations, like Alabama, Mississippi and Virginia, an energized black electorate could create a countervailing force, particularly if conservative white voters choose not to flock to Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, predicts “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States” this fall if Mr. Obama is the nominee.

To hold these states, Republicans may have to work harder than ever. Already, turnout in Democratic primaries this year has substantially exceeded Republican turnout in states like Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

Some analysts suggest that North Carolina and Virginia may even be within reach for the Democratic nominee, and they point to the surprising result in a Congressional special election in Mississippi this week as an indicator of things to come.

[Biggirl]

If Bush keeps helping McCain by comparing Obama to Chamberlain, I’ll have to revise my ‘hopeful’ to ‘damn straight’. Especially if it continues to lead to exchanges like neo-dope Kevin James’ total smackdown on Hardball.

I watched it as it happened and could not believe it. My son was screaming “Poland! Poland!*” at the TV the whole time.

*OK, it was Czechoslovakia-- but I learned it as ‘giving away Poland’ too.

[Liberal]

Looks like things have calmed down today. Typical for a Friday. According to DemConWatch (thanks to **RT ** for the source) Obama got one more superdelegate. Also, Hillary got one today! (Promised to her privately months ago.) In magnanimous spirit, let’s have a big hand for her.

[elucidator]

Hand a bit busy at the moment, will a finger do?

[jayjay]

@elucidator

Hand a bit busy at the moment, will a finger do?

I prefer to be gracious in victory, but that may just be me. shrug

[Cervaise]

Well, you know what they say, grace goeth before the turkey.

[jayjay]

@Cervaise

Well, you know what they say, grace goeth before the turkey.

Well, we’ve already shown her her giblets. Now we’re just waiting for her to realize what that means…

[elucidator]

Graciousness, huh? Yeah, I could probably fake that… But who’d believe me?

[Liberal]

Well, I did call for magnanimity.

[Little_Nemo]

My wife’s religious right aunt (hereafter known as email-glurdge-lady) has already sent out her “thank god we don’t have to vote for Macain now that Barr is in the race” email glurdge.

He’ll save us from Gay marriage dontchaknow.

It boggles my mind that Bob Barr, a man who’s led the fight to have the government regulate the marriages and religious affiliations of American citizens and has tried to ban abortions and medical marijuana, calls himself a member of the Libertarian Party. Hasn’t he read any of their literature?

[Elendil_s_Heir]

@asterion

…Politico (yeah, I know) is reporting…

Why do you say it like that? Does Politico have a bad reputation? How would you describe it? I know very little about it. It’s a website, right?