Two new supers declare for Obama this morning:
Washington State Democratic Party Chairman Dwight Pelz
West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd
None for Hillary so far.
I see now the charges of sexism are coming forward. I guess that’s a decent excuse but I don’t see it as the overiding factor. It’s not her gender but who she is that’s the problem.
RealClearPolitics has started to show the movement of some of the Edwards delegates. Their count as of the moment is pledged delegates 1610-1443, super delegates 298-275, and total delegates 1908-1718. The magic number for Obama is now 117, Hillary’s is 307. The numbers continue to become more impossible for her.
Yeah, but you don’t see it the way she does. If you discount the caucus states, and count Florida and Michigan, but don’t include Michigan’s uncommited votes, and throw out young black male voters from all contests, and count only the primary results from Texas, and ignore the pledged delegates as well as the commited superdelegates, and raise the total needed from 2026 to 3038, and disqualify states where Jesse Jackson had won previously, and define “swing states” to mean “states I’ve won” — then it becomes clear that Hillary is actually far out in front and that Obama can’t win.
This would be funny if it didn’t have quite a bit more than a grain of truth, sad to say.
He should probably win at least 60 more pledged delegates tomorrow, which would get him within spitting distance of 2024. I’ve given up all hope of HRC conceding before June 3rd, but another flood of supers after tomorrow could take it out of her hands.
I’m thinking Kentucky may cause many of the remaining undecided supers to sit on their hands a bit longer.
Why? What’s gonna really change after that?
Not much, but apprehension will be in the air, plus some of these folks may be waiting to see what happens on May 31.
What’s expected to happen on May 31? Campaign finance release for May?
Rules committee decision on MI and FLA.
Bingo
I knew that. :smack: I must have just put it all the way to the back of my mind since he’s so far ahead the committee decision barely matters anymore.
My prediction for FL and MI. Strip the Supers of any votes, award Florida as voted (I know, I know) and award MI 69-59. Won’t help Hillary one iota. OK maybe a single iota.
That same Michigan compromise has been proposed.
And rejected by the Clinton campaign.
But it does. If she trounces Obama in KY as she did in WV, and the rules committee votes in her favor, Hillary will feel able to make a compelling case, not only to the undecideds, but to declared for Obama supers to switch to her.
She will.
They won’t.
You’ve been careful to use the word “feel” instead of “be” able. I know that. You know that. The undecided and Obama supers know that.
I thought they installed a one-way valve between the candidates delegates? 
Is my hypothetical really that far fetched? I thought supporters of Hillary’s nomination held a quorum in the rules committee.
I happened to see Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, at an American Constitution Society lunch today. I asked him if it had been excrutiating being an undeclared superdelegate all along, and what his thinking was nowadays. He laughed and said it hadn’t been too hard lately. He believes the party will have its nominee in the next several weeks. He thinks it’s been healthy for the party to have this long primary process, as it’s given both Clinton and Obama more time in the public eye. He spoke to Clinton on the Senate floor a few days ago and said, “She can do the math as well as anybody.”
I know they rejected it, but I still think it is the one that they will end up with.