He disappeared in Istanbul 2/7/07. Some news outlets are reporting he defected to the U.S.
What would make an Iranian leader defect to the U.S.? Sincere change of heart? $weet offer? Fear of rivals?
:smack: Tsk. Mods, please move this to GD.
Done and done.
If, upon arrival, he is quoted by the government and their mouthpieces as saying things like “Iran plans on using nukes to attack the U.S.A.”, I’m going to go with “$weet offer”.
Do you “Defect” from Iran? Leaving Iran doesn’t strike me as being something you do in the middle of the night. People seem to leave it freely to move to Canada, that’s for sure. I’ve worked with lots of them.
That’s not the same as a former general and government official with lots of high-level intel leaving to work for a hostile foreign government (assuming that’s the case here).
Kidnapping? He left his family behind so that’s where my money is.
We had all the ‘high level defectors’ telling us about Iraq’s WMD’s too. We should brace ourselves for more of the same crap and remember the saying’ fool me once …’
Now the Iranians are saying Askari has been spying on them for years. The Times reports Askari “is understood to be undergoing debriefing at a Nato base in Germany after he escaped from Iran, followed by his family.” ( :dubious: “Understood” by whom? Classic passive-voice nonattribution . . .)
And previously the Times was reporting his family were still in Tehran. If his family were got out then kidnapping is unlikely.
Still doesn’t mean I will believe one word he allegedly says when the inevitable war-mongering official leaks start filtering out.
Fear of being put up against the wall to pose for gunfire? Disagreement with the Iranian regime? Disillusion with the revolution, or the theocracy and the direction his country is taking? Being slighted (or the perception he was slighted) or under appreciated by his government? Some kind of scandal…sexual, or perhaps (considering he’s a muslim) something to do with drugs or alchohol? Or porn? 
Money?
All of these and more are the classic reasons for someone to become a spy for another country. Could be any of these…or none of them. Maybe he had ties back to the old regime and was a sleeper agent or something. Maybe he was a planted agent. We could speculate, but won’t actually know until we learn more about the guy and hear his story. I don’t see what the debate is to be honest…just a lot of folks who seem to want to jump in and poison the well as early on as possible wrt whatever this guy might have to say. 
-XT
Well, his family have surfaced in Iran. Wife brother and 3 children have been talking to reporters and they claim kidnapping.
Relatives of missing general accuse US of kidnap
Therefore I feel completely justified in sneering at anything that we might be told he has ‘revealed’.
Sneer all you want - I couldn’t be happier. The Bush administration’s basic dishonesty aside, this is a major coup on the Mossad’s behalf (from what I understand, the U.S. is playing a supporting role in this affair). Iran and my country are in the middle of a cold war, and this guy will be a major source of intelligence on nuclear programs (if they exist) military deployments, weapon shipments and so on. I care less about what intelligence agencies say than what they learn, and they’re going to learn a lot now.
Frankly, I don’t see the problem here.
… Or just perhaps part of the defection plan went awry, and the family were captured en route out of Iran. And are now toeing the Company Line in order to remain in (relatively) one piece.
Not saying this is necessarily the case, but just as you all seem to be very wary (quite likely wiht good cause) of accepting US claims of Willful Defection at face value – I think we may want to be wary of Iranian claims to the contrary, as well.
The USA are proven liars when it comes to war mongering. They also have form when it comes to kidnapping. There is nothing to suggest coercion of his family. Until evidence to the contrary is produced the explanation most fitting the facts is he is yet another illegal kidnapping and so any information that may be leaked to back up another war or military strike is to be discounted.
And in reply to the previous poster - no it is not a coup - kidnapping foreign nationals and interrogating them is plain wrong and evil.
We would not acccept it if a UK or American politician or general was kidnapped by another state. There is not one law for the USA and Israel and one for the rest. All ‘Might Makes Right’ hand-waving to the contrary.
Real-Politik, all of it. I don’t trust anything any government, including my own, claims until otherwise and independently verified.
It’s a case of two conflicting versions here, and I’m not prepared to believe either party implicitly until some kind of independent verification of one version or another is offered… I think it may be a good idea for all of us critical observers to consider reserving judgment, at least short term.
And what are the Iranians going to do - not recognize my country? Oops! Too late.
I’m sorry, but giving arms to Hezballah is also wrong and evil. Anything that makes my country safer is fine by me.
Waht do you mean “accept it”? I don’t “accept” lots of things. I don’t accept that Firefly was cancelled; I don’t accept the fact that I don’t like any of the music on the radio. Whether or not I accept something has nothing to do with the fact that it exists. So no, America and Israel would not accept it if one of their generals was kidnapped, which is why they’ll try to make sure it doesn’t happen, and if it does happen, they’ll respond. Maybe Iran will respond to the latest incident. We’ll see.
And yes, there is one law for America and one for Iran. There is also a different law for Israel, a different law for france, a different law for Belize. Everny nation has its own laws. According to Iranian law, what Israel and the U.S. did was illegal. OTOH, according to Iranian law, the very existance of my country is illegal, so who gives a shit about Iranian law? The only laws that were broken are those of Turkey, and that’s a matter between Ankara and Jerusalem\D.C. I’m pretty sure they’ll be able to settle things.
There’s no point reserving judgement unless you believe the truth will out before Bush fabricates an Iranian conflict. So far we have no evidence whatsoever for defection and plenty for kidnapping. We have suspects and motive and no doubt soon we’ll be leaked the supposed fruits.
No doubt it is Real Politick as usual. So I want to hear no bleating, wailing and complaining (and this isn’t addressed specifically at you) when US diplomats or Generals are kidnapped or assassinated. Nor for that matter when US troops are held hostage in Iraq, even if it is proven Iranian Intelligence did it directly.
Just Real-Politick as usual. Or state-terrorism.
And all the while let’s remember this, reprinted from the Independent here even if it does turn out he is a defector.
And this steaming pile of horse shit,
And meanwhile:
US Intelligence on Iran fails to add up
This amoral Administration has no problem whatsoever with lies, manipulation of intelligence and kidnapping and can’t be given one sliver of benefit of the doubt because if you do they’ll use it to kill people again.
Me, me, me. Enough! Not everything is about America, you know.
As for the Iranian nuclear weapon program, it’s a no-brainer.
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They have money.
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They have nuclear reactors.
3 .They’d be idiots if they didn’t want nuclear weapons, seeing as their two biggest enemies have nukes.
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They aren’t idiots.
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Therefore, they have a nuclear weapon program.
See? It’s called not being stupid.