The last poster, I am afraid, has no understanding of the basic concepts involved in the election of the President.
This, and other comments regarding the impact of the presence of Republicans in Philadelphia ignores the fact that neither Mr. Bush nor Mr. Gore was trying to win Philadelphia, they were trying to win Pennsylvania. In THAT election, trust me, it was vital to the hopes of Mr. Bush that as many Republicans in Philadelphia voted as possible. Nor can it credibly be asserted that Pennsylvania would never go Republican, as anyone who remembers the Reagan years knows.
I suggest that the person making this statement apply him/herself to the study of human behaviour more thoroughly. While it is true that any given individual’s behaviour cannot be determined with precision through mathmatical analysis, statistical analysis of groups of people is often quite accurate in predicting group behaviour. However, it quite escapes me how the ability of math to predict human behaviour has anything to do with whether it is better to elect a President with the current method, or through a national popular vote.
Actually, Mr. Bush spent much of the time following the Republican convention trying as hard as possible NOT to equate himself with the position of the orthodox religious ‘right’. Most political experts agree that the method for winning a general election is to head to the middle as fast as possible, and assume the wing will vote for you anyway. Attempts to pander to the wing will result in such slaughters as we witnessed in 1964 and 1972.
I could continue to pick this silliness apart, but I won’t; it is sufficient to the purpose to note that, for anyone who has THIS level of understanding, the method for selecting the President will always seem a meaningless muddle. Who cares? I’m not intending to be mean. What I mean is that the general mass of people will often think that direct elections make more sense, thinking their vote matters more that way. The intricacies of federalism versus popular democracy will be lost in the process.
Getting on to meatier analysis, let’s examine the propositions proffered by *Arnold Winkelried. In his post, Arnold proposes that electors should not be ‘bound’ to vote for given candidates, this being the original intent of the ‘College’. ‘Original intent’ arguments are nonsense. First of all, we don’t bind ourselves to the ‘original intent’ in any other part of the Constitution (despite the best efforts of such limelights as Justice Scalia
), so why should we here? But, if we are examining this from the standpoint of: should we choose electors who have a stated preference or not, let’s think about the options:
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Pass a law preventing electors from stating a preference as to who they wish to elect. Oops, hello First Amendment… so nice to see you…
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Find unconstitutional laws that prohibit electors from exercising independence. First of all, not all states have such laws, yet 99% of electors remain ‘faithful’, secondly, the Constitution establishes that the state legislatures get to decide who the electors will be, and presumably it is just as ‘constitutional’ for them to decide that pledged electors work as well as unpledged electors.
When we look at the evolution of the process, we can see why there was evolution in the method of choosing. To the extent that the people at the Convention tried to avoid the ‘evils’ of ‘faction’, they failed horribly. By the 1796 election, faction was busting out all over. It is interesting to note that, in that election, at least ONE elector voted for BOTH Adams and Jefferson, which action would be consistent with the ‘intent’ of the ‘framers’. But the addition of the 12th Amendment was an explicit acknowledgement of the arrival of factional elections. Add in the ferment of Jacksonian democracy and its demand that people have a say in the decisions of government (given that the Constitution only managed to last about 30 years before such democratic reforms started totally transforming the basic concepts of how we choose our ‘older, wiser heads’ to rule us, we shouldn’t really think of the system thought up by the original writers of the Constitution as so sacrosanct; after all, it took them over 10 years to decide that the Articles of Confederation were in need of some overhaul) and you have the fiasco of 1824, which was solved with nominating conventions. The current process has been in place pretty much since 1832, and we only have one election that didn’t work as planned, the 1876 election. Pretty good stats, considering.
To argue that pledged electors are a bad thing, one has to either argue that: the ‘Electoral College’ is a bad thing, since it has resulted in pledged electors as a result of faction in our politics, or ‘faction’ is a bad thing, especially the strongly rooted two-party system perpetuated at the Presidential level by the ‘winner-take-all’ method of selecting electors. As to the former, well, I still think federalism is a good thing, and I shudder to think of what happens when the candidates can simply sit in NY or LA and beam commercials to metropolitan areas in order to ‘campaign’. As for faction, I look at places where multiple factions have a say in government (Israel comes to mind right now for obvious reasons) and I shudder even more.
To paraphrase that famous statement: What we have is pretty ugly until you compare it to everything else.