Why Electoral College, again?

Driving home last evening, listening to the radio. On NPR some elderly woman from Minnesota couldn’t get over that she voted for Bush in 2000. She kept repeating, “I wish I didn’t, I wish I didn’t…” until they took her off the air. I was feeling smug, thinking, “Hey, don’t you remember Minnesota went to Gore anyway, so what are you torturing yourself about? Your vote didn’t make any difference!” And suddenly it occured to me that my vote this year is not going to make any difference, either. I live in a state that, during Presidential elections at least, turns so lopsided toward one party, neither major candidate even come to seriously campaign here. Both only come to hold fund-raisers. I was agonizing who to vote for, while it’s not gonna make any difference, because of electoral collage. So last night I made up my mind to vote Badnarik/Campagna.

Still, why do we still need electoral college, again? At the moment I can’t recall a single argument. Post 2000 fiasco a lot of Democrats were beating their chests, swearing to end it. What happened?

Well, for one at the moment the Democrats aren’t in much of a position to make anything end.

The history of why the electoral college exists is complex. However, you might want to consider the scenario of a 4 man race, where none gets more than 30% of the vote. A system where the guy who gets the most votes wins may not be ideal. And historically, in the US it hasn’t always been that there are just 2 parties that are dominant.

As a side note, I’m glad to hear you’re supporting the LP. I live in DC, which will probably go for Kerry with at least 90% of the vote. So it’s a protest vote for me, too.

Because if the President is selected based solely on the Popular vote, the candidates will only have to campaign in the five or six largest cities in order to get enough votes. The rest of the U.S. would be ignored.

Today, they only have to campaign in the 5 or 6 swing states, and can ignore the millions of people in non-swing states, that’s not necessarily better either.

Depending on party affiliation, that already happens to a certain degree. If you’re a Republican in MA, you may as well pick your navel on Election Day for all it will matter; and you certainly never saw hide nor hair of W during the campaign, except on TV. Hell, Romney didn’t even campaign for him here, and the best he can do now is try to prevent UMass Amherst students from voting by ingoring their petition for a separate polling booth on campus. In short, if you are a Republican in MA, your vote doesn’t count, and will not for the forseable future. If there’s a popular vote, everybody’s vote counts. These fools who argue everybody’s vote just cancels in a popular vote is being disingenuous, and are just grasping at straws to defend a two-party system.

How can a diversity of oppinion be a bad thing? I much prefer it to hegemony, and if govt. is paralyzed to a certain extent by lack of consensus, given current events, I’d say that would be preferable to the status quo.

To Hell with the Electory College. At least enstate the Popular Vote.

(And I can wish on a star and hope for weighted voting in a parallel universe, if I could just find that fabled “quantum mirror”)

We have an electoral college because our Founding Fathers, while radical for their time, were still very hesitant to put too much power in the hands of the people; and because they wanted the federal union to be led by a man who would be broadly acceptable to most of the states, as states.

I hope these considerations no longer apply – especially the latter. (Though, even today, there are still some rather atavistic conservatives who still seem to have a lot of emotional investment in the idea of “states’ rights.”) We still have an EC because the political will to abolish has been lacking. 2000 was an anomaly. In most elections, the popular-vote plurality winner and the electoral-vote majority winner are the same. Therefore, while everybody bitches about the EC, it never seems to be an issue with enough urgency to warrant the effort it would take to get a constitutional amendment through congress and 3/4 of the state legislatures – especially as it is an amendment that would really tough to sell to some of the least populous states.

Generally speaking, we use different “fitness” criteria for different things. “Most” of something is always the winner, but what that something is often comes into dispute. For voting in particular, no system will satisfy all criteria that we would ideally think constitutes a “good” method of counting votes.

For a non-voting example, consider baseball. The “winner” of a season is the team that wins the world series, i.e., roughly a pairwise winner, not the team with the lowest ERA, or the most number of runs, or other possibilities (which are numerous, when you consider the kind of statistics sports fans keep). This is not to say that the team that wins the world series (or the Super Bowl, or the World Cup) is unambiguously the best team, only that the selection criteria we use selects this team as the winner. I’m quite sure good arguments exist that might suggest other methods of ranking teams.

Same with voting, except voting is a slightly easier phenomenon since there is only one statistic to count: the number of affirmations.

In America, the Electoral College is simply a method of assigning weights to geopolitical groups (in this case, states). Unarguably, larger populations get more votes, as we might expect. There is nothing about the EC which demands that an entire state’s EC votes must go to the most popular candidate (plurality). This is not an artifact of the EC, this is the result of the way states apportion their EC votes. Thus, if the concern of the EC is simply that an entire state’s vote goes to a barely winning candidate, one’s concern should be with the way the state handles its EC votes, not with the EC itself (see Colorado). The most salient example would be states that give their EC votes to candidates in proportion to the popular vote in a state. It would take a rather extreme case whereby, if all states adopted this method of apportioning their EC votes, the candidate that one failed to represent the simple plurality vote.

The other point to consider is that first-past-the-post voting also produces some effects which are, to some, undesirable, such that the winner of an election is not necessarily representative of those preferenced by a plurality of voters even in a particular state (i.e., even before the “hated” Electoral College comes into play). Consider a case, for example, where the ballot in Florida was set up under a transferable voting system, such that if your preferred candidate lost the initial counting, your vote could instead go to a second candidate. Clearly this changes the dynamic of elections. (It also brings other effects into play, but nevermind that now.) Many argue that this is, in fact, able to elect a winner that is preferred by most voters. Under our current system the same assertion cannot be made. We don’t know, for instance, that Buchannan voters strictly preferred Bush to Gore, or that Nader voters strictly preferred Gore to Bush in the 2000 election, so we cannot suggest that Bush is the most preferred candidate because we reduced the way voters are able to express preferences. Broadening their ability to express preferences can indeed select a more preferrable candidate… and still has nothing to do with “popular vote”.

For the federal government, I personally feel that the popular vote is a remarkably poor way to select a winner in a national, single-seat election such as the presidency. But if you like it, the Electoral College isn’t really what’s in the way.

But which states are the swing states can change over time. New York and LA aren’t going to go away.

Other advantages to the electoral college:

  • It compartmentalizes electoral problems. If you think the Florida recount was bad, imagine a national recount … .

  • It tends to turn small majorities into clear victories. This means that there’s much less incentive for a loser to try to contest the election. (Of course, occasionally, as in 2000, this cuts the other way … .)

  • It keeps elections as a state-run enterprise. With a national popular vote we’d have to have national election machinery for a once-every-four-years occurance.

The reason I’m against a strict popular vote is this:

Imagine a popular vote that is extremely close- one that ends with the winner having less than .1% of a margin. That’s happened several times before in American history.

Remember the debacle that was Florida? The constant screaming and fighting and recounting because the end victory margin was always going to be less than the margin of error in counting?

Imagine that occuring in every state of the union simultaneously because 10,000 votes from anywhere will change the outcome.

At least, with the EC, we can narrow it down to one or two states where the thin difference makes a recount necessary.

In 46 elections under the current electoral system, we’ve had 4 cases where the winner was not the one with the most votes- 1824 (where no one had a majority, and Congress eventually selected runner-up Adams to become President); 1876 (where Hayes lost by 3%, but there was enough corruption in two states for a party-line vote by the investigating committee to hand the election to him); 1888; and 2000.

A national election is a national election. With a popular vote, thinking in terms of States is obsolete. The onus is then on the Feds to have a nationalized voting system that is consistent across the board, and if the election is close, it’s a national issue to be considered at the Federal level. Presently, the utter lack of national standards makes our national electoral system one of chaos. There were voter irregularities in 2000 in nearly every state, for as many different reasons as there were states; the only reason nobody cared about the others is because they settled on Florida to fight over. Since it’s likely we’ll fight over Florida again (actually, the fight has started already, to a certain degree), how is this a good thing? The rest of the nation goes into electoral gridlock while one troublesome state keeps us all hanging on their chads.

Well, Pochacco and John Corrado both made the point I was about to make about close votes.

Still, I would very much like to see a constitutional amendment requiring each state to appoint electors based on a the proportion each candidate receives in the popular vote of that state. This would get us much closer to having every person’s vote count.

I’ll take the other position and argue in favor of the electoral college. It’s a good compromise and does protect rural voters and voters in sparsely populated areas from being totally disregarded by candidates.

I would like to see all the states go like Maine, and like Colorado is currently considering, and allocate their electoral votes according to how its populace voted rather than winner-take-all, with just a bit extra thrown in for the overall state winner (if the state in question has enough evotes to do that, of course).

I’m actually not sure of how Maine (and one other state, I forget which?) does this, but the easiest to implement, since each state gets a pair of electors corresponding to their two senators and then one for each of their population-dependent number of representatives, is to award two electors to the candidate receiving the most votes in the state overall and then to divide up the remaining electors so as to most closely match the proportion of the popular vote within that state.

Thus, if Bush gets 57% of the vote in Georgia (as per recent poll), Bush gets 2 electors for winning the state plus 57% of the remaining 13 electors = 7.4 round to 7 for a total of 9 electoral votes, and Kerry gets 6; and in New York, assuming Kerry gets 58% (recent poll), Kerry gets 2 for winning the state plus 578% of the remaining 29 or 16.8 round to 17 for a total of 19, leaving Bush with 12.

That eliminates the “my vote doesn’t count because my state isn’t a swing state” problem and it gives candidates and parties reason to give a damn about states they are almost assuredly never going to carry. And since the smaller the state the more impact the two remaining winner-take-all electors have on the state’s overall vote, it still works to empower the smaller states a bit.

If we do that, then I believe we also have to introduce some type of preference voting. Otherwise, we are simply putting the election into the House of Representatives every time there is a medium strong third party candidate.

By the way, Amendment 36 is currently losing in the polls, 49% to 36%. It’s turning out that as they learn more about it, Coloradoans are turning against it.

What does this mean? The candidate would only need to win a majority in each of those cities, or would need 100% of the vote to win theoretically, or what? Because the latter wouldn’t happen, and the former doesn’t seem like it would end the election either.

A traditional argument for the Electoral College is that in order to win a popular vote election, a candidate would only have to win the eleven largest states. (California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Georgia add up to 271.) Aside from Reagan, who has carried all of those states? That’s a very diverse sampling! I think if candidates tried to win all of those states, that would be a big plus. You have the East, South, Midwest, and West represented. To win all of those states, a politician would need a message that appealed to Americans of all kinds. Nobody in today’s system and climate would win all of those states. Three are solidly Republican, three are solidly Democrat (New Jersey usually is too, but not this year) and the rest are up in the air. So I think these are both non-issues.

Under the current system, voters in decided states get screwed because the electoral college is winner-take-all, so candidates are discouraged from appealing to them. There’s no point to it. This is especially true for Republicans in New York, Democrats in Texas, etc. They have no incentive to vote. Under a popular vote, their candidates would still need their vote and those votes would mean something. Also, voters in the largest states get screwed because proportionately, their votes mean less. For example, California’s population is almost 70 times as larges as Wyoming’s, but California has 55 electoral votes and Wyoming has 3- meaning the ratio gets cut from 70:1 to about 18:1. I don’t think this kind of thing gibes well with ‘one man, one vote.’

Except the nationalized voting system must be integrated into local voting systems, as all voting gets done on the same day. So either A) there will be two seperate voting booths, one with the local and state elections, the other with the “nationalized” federal voting system; B) national elections will be held on the same old machines that the local elections are done on, with all of the Florida-esque problems they’ve had; or C) the Federal government will buy new voting machines for every district in the country.

We can talk about how loverly it will be once C gets implemented, but that doesn’t mean it will happen; given the lack of movement to do so after 2000 even after it was obvious how poor machinery could FUBAR a state election, I doubt there will be much momentum to do it in the hypothetical aboslishing-EC future.

And because the margins of victory in the other states made such irregularities a moot point. Again- in a national system, we’d have to investigate all of them if the election is close, rather than just focusing on one or two states’ worth.

I never said it was a good thing; it’s a bad thing, but one that will never go away. There will always be voting irregularities, discrepancies, and conspiracy theories. (Ask rjung about Diebold! Or, actually, please don’t.) Any designer can tell you that no system survives contact with the general populace, and that you’ll never be able to underestimate the stupidity of some people. Whatever “national system” you propose will have problems, and in terms of time, expense, and general weariness, it’s easier to deal with a recount in one state than it is to do a national recount.

I think this should be a sticky; it comes up in every electoral college thread:

Maine and Nebraska assign one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, two to the state-wide winner.

I’m against the electoral college, but I see the current plurality voting system as more of a problem.

Oh, also, I meant to ask if this assumes that everyone votes. Ditto for the ‘eleven largest states’ thing in my other post.

I don’t like the current system. For one thing, my teeth wear down every time I hear someone say “electorial college” and “electorial votes”. I do not want a straight popular vote. I don’t trust other states to keep the voting honest. If 200,000 votes come in from Chicago cemetaries, then that’s a problem mucking up Illinois’ electoral votes, not the national result. I like the Maine system. Winner statewide gets 2 votes, winner of each congressional district gets 1 vote. But the problem with changing a system in one state is that it causes your state to lose importance. Colorado’s 9 electoral votes are worth campaigning for. But the difference between winning 4 or 5 of Colorado’s electoral votes may not be worth fighting over. Thus, Coloradoans could disconnect themselves from the campaign by reforming the process and issues important to Coloradoans will be of lesser importance in future elections should the referendum pass.