Is there a demand gap? What evidence do you have for that? There are many potential reasons for a moribund economy.
Not only do I think that fiscal stimulus won’t help, I don’t think there is much evidence that it helped before to the extent promised - especially in countries with open export markets and floating exchange rates. And I note that even Christina Romer’s plan for a stimulus admitted that it would be a net cost to the economy in the long term - once the direct effects of the stimulus are over, there’s the long-term drag on the economy of the debt servicing costs. If interest rates return to a normal range of 3-4% for federal funds, the last ‘stimulus’ is going to cost Americans $20-$30 billion dollars PER YEAR in debt servicing until it is paid back. That’s money that could have been spent on social programs, college tuition, or left in the hands of taxpayers.
If you think fiscal stimulus is a grand cure-all, please explain to me how Japan can still be an economic basket case when their ‘stimulus’ as a percentage of GDP was something like 10 times the size of the one in the U.S. While you’re at it, please explain how Canada’s economy is doing so well as our government plans for a balanced budget next year and a surplus the year after.
Some of you guys on the left need to re-learn economic fundamentals. You’re all fixated on running an economy on gimmicks - stimulus plans, loose money, wacky government ‘job creation’ programs, etc. You think you can play accounting tricks and money games and make a healthy economy out of it.
But here’s the core thing to remember: In the end, what makes a healthy economy is the free flow of information between producers and consumers, an alignment of the productive capacity of the country with demands of consumers, and reality-informed balances between spending and saving, long and short-term investment, infrastructure and the needs of the people, etc.
A fiscal stimulus might be useful when some artificial factor suppresses demand and leads to idle productive capacity (that wouldn’t be idle other than the temporary distortions). If it is, it’s only because it prevented the destruction of that productive capacity that you’d really want to have when the recession is over.
But if your productive capacity is already aligned with what the people want, need, and can afford, adding fiscal ‘stimulus’ is worse than useless because it causes dislocations based on an artificial input. i.e. production increases because the producers get a signal that there is more demand. Then when the stimulus goes away, you have overproduction.
In the meantime, the people and resources needed to build that new productive capacity are pulled from other areas of the economy that were already productive, causing dislocations of labor and capital. And of course, if capital is already being used, the stimulus money must crowd out other uses for that capital, or if it’s printed money or borrowed money it will drive down the value of the currency or drive up interest rates.
Or if you think you can have a ‘permanent’ fiscal stimulus, you’ll be in for a rude shock. If you pay for it with taxation, you’re simply shifting the economic balance from one form of consumption to another, or you’re pulling money from future investment to pay for current consumption. You may temporarily goose the economy, but only at the expense of its long-term health and growth. If you borrow the money, you’ll eventually run out of money to borrow, and in the meantime you’ll drive up your debt servicing costs and make that capital unavailable for private investment. If you print the money, you’ll eventually devalue your currency.
Any one of these paths also has a common destructive characteristic - it injects noise into the flow of information critical to a complex economy. As a producer, if I see demand go up for my product I no longer know if it’s demand driven by a real need, or demand driven by a temporary injection of money. It becomes hard to plan. If the stimulus causes a diversion of resources into a useless project, it harms the useful projects that would have used those resources.
Japan spent trillions on stimulus, much of which went into infrastructure. That generated a huge amount of consumption of steel and concrete and other materials. And now they have lots of under-utiliized bridges and roads which require regular maintenance. And they have a massive debt, and their economy is still in the doldrums. Japan has fiscally-stimulated itself into a box it can’t get out of.