Does the disgrace of Kimberly Guilfoyle, ex-wife of Gavin Newsom, reduce Newsom’s chances of getting the nomination?
I doubt it. She and Newsom divorced 20 years ago, and she’s much more associated with her more recent (but no longer) partner, Don Jr., and being full-on MAGA now.
Politicians say things need to say. I don’t believe for a minute that Ossoff wouldn’t bid adieu to the Senate if he thinks he has a legit shot at the brass ring in '28.
From Meet the Press:
(January 22, 2006):
MR. RUSSERT: When we talked back in November of ‘04, after your election, I said, “There’s been enormous speculation about your political future. Will you serve your full six-year term as a United States senator from Illinois?” Obama: “Absolutely.”
SEN. OBAMA: I will serve out my full six-year term. You know, Tim, if you get asked enough, sooner or later you get weary and you start looking for new ways of saying things, but my thinking has not changed.
MR. RUSSERT: But, but—so you will not run for president or vice president in 2008?
SEN. OBAMA: I will not
One thing that strikes me is that the paths look very different based on whether or not particular possibilities decide to run.
I don’t think Harris will run (or get the nom if she does) but the out of the gate phase looks very different with her in or not. Likewise AOC has made noise that she understands the electability concerns re her identities and she doesn’t “shy away from those realities.” My WAG is Senate for her. And as above Ossoff is making a pretty strong denial, not just a non answer “not at this time” denial … could reverse but pretend no.
So imagine the race out of the gates with none of those three in the mix, but any and all of any others. How do you see it shaking out?
Absolutely. There’s a lot of what historians call path dependency in political races.
IIRC many of the big name traditional Rs sat out the opening gun of the 2016 primary season. It was 7 dwarves working hard to get commentators to pronounce their names correctly. Then trump showed up and wiped out the field.
A D field in the 2028 primary season that lacks the big names will be the same phenomenon. If a big name or a charismatic outsider swoops in, they may carry it all. If not, the Ds will end up with some relative unknown as their least bad least offensive to their fringes compromise nominee. And the Fascists will win the election by a large margin.
So none of the other likely to run people both appeal to you and have a path?
Honestly there are few of the list that I don’t think would be very good candidates. Even Newsom.
Summary
Is there any evidence that any significant number of Sanders primary supporters refused to vote for Clinton? Real people, I mean, not Russian agitator-bots.
A vote for the other team is a swing of two. Staying home is a swing of one. Both are bad, but they’re not equal.
Summary
Analyzing how Bernie Sanders supporters voted in the 2016 General Election. You can draw your own conclusions from that.
For comparison, here’s a summary of a similar study on Clinton primary supporters vis a vis Obama (the original study is paywalled beyond the abstract).
Summary
I caucused for Sanders in 2016 and voted for Clinton in the general.
I supported Elizabeth Warren in 2020, but I voted for Biden in the general.
I really wanted to cast a protest vote for Taylor Swift in 2024, but I held my nose and voted Harris anyway.
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RealClearPolitics has new polling info- good for senate and Prez-
Top Three are Harris, Newsom and Buttigieg. Then AOC then Ossoff.
I’d really want to see some state specific numbers but this sure feels like 2 to 1 odds that Harris is the nominee.
Literally a name-recognition poll, it seems to me…except maybe Buttigieg over AOC representing some semblance of actual preference (which I find interesting).
Way to early. At this point in past cycles, the top name was just who was most familiar to voters, and almost never matched the eventual nominee.
Polls may be of little value now but there are other indicators that can inform significantly - such as what support do have from those whose support will matter critically and who may be best informed?
When both your spouse and your major donors are encouraging you to NOT run I would not bet on her running or prevailing if she does.
her husband has privately told some people he would prefer she didn’t run and some donors have told her directly that a bid would be a long shot, according to people familiar with the conversations.
How do we define the lanes at this point?
Progressive for sure is one. AOCs if she wants it, but if she opts for the Senate run … Khanna maybe? But no where near AOCs strength.
I heard Buttigieg as the “competent institutionalist” lane … he’d have to connect with Black voters in SC as his proving ground. Daunting in any case but less so if Harris isn’t there.
Newsom and Pritzker big state governors who can self fund in any state.
Swing state winners - Ossoff; Kelly and Galleago both of AZ; Shapiro; Beshear. Galleago not well known but NV and NM are both fairly early and play to his hand.
MI comes up pretty early? I could imagine either Pritzker or Buttigieg doing well there. It would be interesting to see how (assuming elected) El Sayed plays his hand. He might bend over backwards to support a Jewish candidate who rejects AIPAC and criticizes Israel, like a Pritzker or Shapiro.
Do you mean because they’re personally rich enough? Pritzker is (net worth in the billions), Newsom isn’t (net worth in the few tens of millions). Newsom’s wife Jennifer Siebel is from a wealthy family (investment manager father) and grew up in the super-tony enclave of Ross, but the billionaire in the group is from a different branch and is a Republican backer.
The Newsoms are certainly rich by any reasonable definition of the word. They own ~$15 million in property and over and above his Governor’s salary Gavin pulls in about $1 million/year in income from a blind trust wherein lies the shares of the hospitality/food/wine company he co-founded. But they’re not mega-rich in a can-self-fund-a-presidential-primary-run sense
My misimpression! I thought he was in not Pritzker level but still more up there.