Nate Silver and Galen Duke’s list of the 20 most likely candidates, in approximate order:
AOC, Shapiro, Harris, Booker, Buttigieg, Newsom, Gallego, Whitmer, Polis, Cuomo, Moore (gov of MD), Warnock, Pritzker, Stephen A. Smith (?!), Beshear, Klobuchar, Walz, Cuban, Sanders, Fetterman.
Any of them not already been discussed here? (Smith is a particularly obnoxious ESPN talking head who has apparently talked about running. I guess he might be a reasonable choice if you think the voters just really want an unqualified asshole as President).
That is quite a list. I’m not going to handicap them but I will say there are a bunch of them that I don’t see getting the nomination and only a handful (maybe 4?) that I think would have a chance of winning the general election in '28. I realize odds would depend on the GOP nominee but I’m imagining either Vance or, through some weird and unlikely machinations, DJT.
And I think someone like Polis would be better off running for the Senate seat in CO that Bennett is vacating. He’s young and would benefit from getting national exposure with at least one term in the Senate.
Bennett is only vacating if he wins the Colorado governorship. If he loses in the primary or general, he’ll stay as a senator. This will all be sorted in 2026, so plenty of time for Polis to plan for 2028.
What I could see is a swap, in which Bennett becomes governor and appoints Polis to fill the last two years of the senate term.
Yes, Axios quoted a Democratic Representative who understandably wished to remain anonymous as also being upset about “one hairdresser” distracting the public from the economic debate, and as not thinking it was a big deal, since he wasn’t even a citizen. I guess this is a thing.
Immigration is Trump’s strongest issue. That doesn’t mean Democratic politicians should join him in his nativism. And they should support the rule of law. But they don’t need to directly attack Trump where he is strongest.
It’s painful to me that, while I still hope he is returned from El Salvador and afforded the protections of American law, Abrego Garcia turned out to not be the appealing test case he first appeared to be.
Newson appears to have made his statement about Abrego Garcia being a distraction about the same time yesterday that the bad news about Abrego Garcia’s rap sheet came out. I’m not sure which came first. If Newson was speaking after knowing about the dropped domestic assault charges, what he said was more than understandable and suggests Newsom may know how to beat Trump (even if he doesn’t know how to win Democratic primaries).
Is Pete Hegseth’s rap sheet worse? Yes. I’m not arguing the merits, just the politics of picking Abrego Garcia as the test case for humanizing immigrants being persecuted by the MAGA regime.. There will be all too many more appealing cases to highlight.
It’s not about Garcia being a perfect person - it’s about him being a person. People get due process, end of story. If Democrats aren’t willing to fight for due process, that’s really the end of it. Because if they don’t have to grant Garcia due process, they don’t have to grant anyone due process. And then anyone can be disappeared. It really is the whole ballgame.
Newsflash that so many forget - politicians can influence public opinion. If the public doesn’t care about due process, then educate them. Because if we lose due process, that really is the end of the American system.
Democrats, and Republicans, who are judges, need not to fight, but to rule in favor of due process. My last link gives hope there. While judicial orders might not be enforced in every case – getting Abrego Garcia returned while we have a MAGA U.S. president seems highly uncertain – I think/hope that, in our hybrid regime, Trump won’t dare to always ignore courts.
Democrats who are politicians – unlike the judges – need to pick their, to use the fight metafor, battles. One reason that Abrego Garcia has gotten so much publicity is that his case came up first. But it looks like the legal issue of hundreds of Venezuelans being sent to El Salvador’s horror prison, without due process, is catching up. There may be more sympathetic MAGA victims to focus on in that group. If there is any hope for education, it would be with those. And I hope the Democratic presidential nomination front-runners will know that.
This is a man (sort of) who is proud of the fact that he never apologizes or backs down. He sometimes changes his direction but only on his own terms and for his own reasons.
So I ask you, how in trumpworld could trump allow himself to abide by any court’s order? How could he justify a decision like this to himself? He can’t admit to anyone, least of all himself, that a court has the authority to tell him what to do. He won’t back down or give in.
He could only follow a court order if it was somehow for his own aggrandizement. He can only give in if to him it’s not actually giving in. Even better, he could comply with a court order if it not only boosts his ego but simultaneously sticks it to someone else. Neat trick.
“Because of many unfair decisions made by the Biden Department of Injustice, I have chosen to liberate Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who has been treated terribly by the Deep State, including many of the same haters and losers responsible for the Witch Hunts against “Trump”, from the facility where he has been wrongly held at tremendous expense to the taxpayer and to make room for many more “bad hombres”. THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!”
It is perfectly fine to say “we support more border security, (especially for drug intervention)”. There are drugs being walked in over the Mexican Border. It is reasonable and even fair to try to cut down the smuggling- and thus appease the xenophobes.
