Re last post, the fact that Trump’s 2020 loss didn’t stop him from winning in 2024 suggests to me that she could do better next time. With passage of time, she will be somewhat less tied to the unpopular Biden administration.
I’d say to Harris: If you want the job, participate in primary season debates, and let’s see how you do.
I doubt I’d vote for her in the Pennsylvania primary but want to keep an open mind.
I suppose she could do better than 2020. After all, dropping out before Iowa and not getting a single delegate means that anything better is an improvement.
Same here, I can’t picture any possible advantage that she’ll have in 2028 that will make the crucial difference. If Trump dies and MAGA implodes, perhaps but I feel like “I bet you wish you had voted for me in 2024” isn’t much of a campaign slogan.
She may get out from under the shadow of Biden but I don’t think she’ll ever get out from under the shadow of Gaza. I don’t imagine things will be any better there in 2028 and against all logic, people will still blame her for it (while Trump openly talks about ethnic cleansing so he can build resorts). Harris had the rare ability to make both sides unhappy. She was too pro-Palestinian, which cost her crucial Jewish votes all over the place. She was simultaneously too pro-Israel, which cost her progressive votes that should have been a lock for her. She tried to straddle the fence and keep both of her ears to the ground at the same time. Trump just picked a side and look at that, he won!
In any case, I don’t want to make this into another thread regurgitating the many reasons why Harris snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in 2024. But if anyone can think of something compelling that she can offer in 2028, I’m all ears.
Because she’ll have an actual campaign and won’t be up against the worst anti-incumbency bias ever recorded + against a historically unpopular president.
Your baseline assumption should be she’ll do better.
I find this to be incredibly unlikely. She wasn’t ever in power, but she’s going to get blamed over the guy gloating for 4 years about the real estate opportunities that genocide enables?
She’d have to make it out of the primary first. There’s no reason to think 2027 will look like 2015 where except for one cantankerous old man the party basically gives her a free run like Hillary got. And as I keep pointing out, she did terribly in the 2020 primary, dropping out before Iowa. Her biggest memorable debate moment that time was a disingenuous attack on Biden’s opinion on forced busing for schools decades earlier.
And again, it’s not just that she couldn’t separate herself from Biden. She’s a terrible extemporaneous speaker who puts out bizarre policy proposals. Crypto protection for black men. Forgiveness for Pell grants (where there’s nothing to forgive) for running a business in a specific sort of area for multiple years.
Everything I’ve seen of her tells me that if she wants to be in public office she should stick to something like being a DA or AG. Not legislative and definitely not executive.
Currently, net favorability polling shows the Democrats down about ten points compared to the Republicans, as explained and shown here:
While much of the deficit is due to dissatisfaction on the left, some, maybe most, Democratic policies remain unpopular.
I suppose Trump’s economic luck will eventually run out. But that won’t automatically make the Democrats popular. Trump will shamelessly abandon unpopular policies, allowing for some bounce-back..
Invasion of Greenland may bring a quick U.S. victory. Then the Democratic Party would be bitterly divided over whether to give Greenland back, making the sacrifice of our soldiers meaningless. This split would be more politically damaging than anything regarding Israel.
The relevance to the Democratic nomination is that the Democrats need a truly popular candidate, not someone who can squeak in while losing Congress. Harris risks becoming that weak squeak-in candidate. But let’s have everyone plausible run, see how they do in primary debates, and then nominate my favorite, Reuben Gallego.
This is irrelevant because that’s driven entirely because Dems are mad at Dems. The polls for generic Dem vs generic Republican have Dems at like +3.
Re last post, I gave a link mostly pointing that way in my last post, but “entirely” goes too far. Here’s the other side:
Pew showed she did quite well with the Jewish vote. And there is no such thing as “the shadow of Biden” who was a quite good president. Gaza might not even be a big issue like in 2024- of course the Middle east will always be an issue.
Right. I dunno if the Gaza issue even hurt her significantly- it was inflation, that was the big numero-uno issue. Then Immigration and Crime.
That was a WSJ poll, which is pretty biased.
This shows better info-
It does show that both parties are quite unfavorable in popularity, but the Dem party is gaining membership.
Also-
The Democratic Party’s historically low favorability is also attributable to independents’ poor evaluation of the party. Just 27% of independents rate the Democratic Party favorably, essentially tying the low of 25% from November 2014.
The GOP fares no better among independents, with a 28% favorable rating in the current survey, which is down from 42% just before the 2024 election and 37% immediately after it.
And I didnt find anything in your cite that showed-
What Policies? Basically, the American public is fed up with Congress.
And indy voters, who also dont much like the GOP.
I find post of like this totally misunderstand why the Democrats lost. Harris didn’t lose because Gaza. She didn’t lose because of trans right. Those just aren’t issues that drive that many voters. She didn’t lose because she was a minority or a woman. Lots of countries have elected woman presidents and we are not so special that we can’t.
She lost because the economy. That’s it. Because inflation has been high, because housing is unaffordable, because the job market is incredible rough particularly at the entry level. She lost because a new generation of people can’t see how they can buy a house or afford kids. She lost because Democrats didn’t do enough to fix these issues or even communicate that they understood them. And while there is a lot of misinformation, there is also a lot of real problems too. She lost because the Democrats were in charge and if you are in charge you get blamed when people aren’t happy.
I think 2028, in a fair election, the Democrats have a good shot, because Trump will be unpopular and his supporters haven’t shown they show up for anyone else. But for the Democrats to consistently win, they need to figure out to listen, to communicate in ways that modern Americans hear, and they need some better ideas in helping people struggling.
We also need to lose the attitude that parties are stagnant and all you need to do is rally your base and get 51% of independents. That isn’t how Trump won. He grew a new base and convinced traditional Democratic voters, African Americans, Latinos, Young people to flip over. We need to stop triangulating our candidate or our message. It comes off as unauthentic and it drives voters away. Far better to have a gay black woman in San Francisco who can listen and speak to voters than the straightest white man in Wisconsin giving a focus grouped message.
Right
Yep, Inflation was far and away the #1 reason people voted for trump. And of course this was because economics is hard and understanding how inflation works is even harder. Hint- the White House can nOT end inflation with the stroke of a pen. Or even quickly. Biden was working on it, inflation was going down. In fact inflation so far has been about the same as 2024, but it appears to be on the rise.
#2 was immigration, #3 was crime.
I dont think many of any Dems flipped, but a number of Indys sure did. Remember, Dem, GOP and Indy each are about 1/3 of the voters.
Okay, so taking that at face value, if she comes back in 2028 with a message of “the economy? I get it now!” does she have a better chance than she did before? How is she going to sell that message? She said all the right things in 2024. I watched her speeches. They had empathy and all the understanding of how regular people all across America were suffering. She seemed genuine when she spoke about these issues. But I guess people thought chaos was a better answer. Is that going to change by 2028? If someone dares to ask her what she will do differently from Biden, will she have thought up an answer by then?
“The economy- trump has ruined it and I can fix it! I will review all the tariffs, and put in place measures to reduce inflation and unemployment!”
Trump sold it by lies. Obviously she shouldnt out and out lie- but she can fix the economy- it wont be overnight however.
“Those just aren’t issues that drive that many voters.” That’s my whole point. They didn’t have to drive that many voters, they just had to drive enough.
It is a broader then inflation. It is more that for a large swath of people the traditional American dream is disappearing. You graduate from college and you have a mountain of debt, can’t find a good paying job (and what you find might go to AI in two years anyway, can’t afford to eat or shelter, and even if you do get raises or bonuses prices just get higher and things like buying a house are hopelessly out of reach. Immigration and Crime are just consequences of the economic hardships. If the job market and housing market were better, a lot less people would care out immigration.
And no it isn’t 1/3 Dem, 1/3 Rep 1/3 Ind. It is maybe 15% Dem, 15% Rep, and 70% people who don’t care about politics or hate all politicians or only care about whatever pet issue they have. Those are the voters who are winning elections for Trump, because the Democrats have largely failed to reach them, even as they grow their portion of the politically engaged. You aren’t trying to sway politically inclined independents. You need to convince people that politics matter and that you understand their issues and will help them.
No she didn’t do all the right things. We really need to accept that. Maybe her campaign would have been more effective when things like debates, political talk shows, and door to door canvassing mattered more, but Harris and team absolutely failed to reach the voters they needed to. You may watch the speeches, but the voters she needed to reach don’t. A lot people struggled under Biden and she failed to express that she would do anything differently and spent a decent amount of time trying to argue was actually pretty good, which is not what you want to hear when you are struggling. She certainly got a dealt a challenging hand, but lets not act like she was perfect.
If she runs again she would have a shot, because any Dem will have a decent shot, but unless she learns from her errors, I don’t think she would be the best candidate.
I can’t think of anything I would have wanted her to do differently than Biden. People who are struggling should have voted for her. I don’t blame her campaign for the fact that they didn’t.
But people who graduated from college, with or without a mountain of debt, mostly voted for Harris, and even those with “some college” (who may be among the ones most shafted by student debt) favored Trump by much less than those with no college and, presumably, no student debt at all. I’m willing to buy that Trump drew much his support from people who feel left out by the current economy, but I don’t think this narrative of how they got left out rings true in most cases, nor is Trump offering much to benefit cash-strapped and underemployed college graduates (to the extent that he has any coherent economic vision, it seems to involve native-born Americans doing all the crappy jobs that are currently being done by immigrants and people in other countries, and that is the part that he’s willing to say out loud).
I think Biden / Harris did make some major missteps in this area, but they mostly involved things like focusing on student loan forgiveness (a giveaway to an already-fairly-privileged group), rather than the much larger group of voters who are basically shut out of the middle class because of their lack of formal education, not in spite of their attainment of it.
That has been the Democrats strategy. Peel off independents and “never trumpers” And it failed, because it took their tradition demographics for granted. If you gain 10,000 voters for your Israel stance, and lose 1,000,000 voters because the economy left them behind you aren’t going to win many elections.
You don’t blame a campaign for thinking that maintaining all policies of a very unpopular president would win? The message that look I know your life sucks, but I think we are leading great, no notes is not gonna be too appealing. This board tends to like Biden but it also skews old and thus isn’t really a good representation of the average voter thinks of him.