Ossoff is tough, but super premature to make 2026 predictions. Tariffs aren’t even in effect yet. We don’t know who we’ll have invaded by then. We could be in the middle of a bird flu pandemic.
Or is willing to tell a lie that big. Which I think is the point. Sure Biden (for example) stretched the truth once in a while, but no out and out pants on fire whoppers.
Yeah, having principles and standards is going to be a handicap going forward.
As an FYI, Ossoff is in Georgia, not NC. I was one of the voters that helped elect him in 2020.
He has a tough race ahead of him, depending on his opponent. If MAGA puts Herschel Walker up against him, he has a chance. If Brian Kemp runs for Senate in 2026, then I think Ossoff is in big trouble, because Kemp is a popular governor.
Georgia is about 51/49 in favor of the Republicans, too. It’s now a purple state, but still leans slightly red.
The Washington Post has an opinion piece today titled The 12 Democrats who make the most sense for 2028:
12: Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)
11: Josh Stein (North Carolina Governor)
10: Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)
9: Gavin Newsom (California Governor)
8: Raphael Warnock (Georgia Senator)
7: Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)
6: Ruben Gallego (Arizona Senator)
5: John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)
4: Kamala Harris (former VP)
3: Pete Buttigieg (former Secretary of Transportation)
2: Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)
And this week’s Number One (tadaaaa!)
1: Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)
I’m only vaguely familiar with some of these people, but a lot can happen in four years. Shapiro (my Governor) doesn’t surprise me, but Fetterman (my Senator) certainly does. Really? I can’t see anyone mentioning his name seriously. His recent antics have dismayed many people, and he’s too much of a character. I think he’s a good man and I’m not sorry I voted for him, but I can’t see him as a Top 5 contender for the Oval Office.
Harris: No. She has the stink of failure on her, right or not. That enthusiasm can’t be rebuilt.
Walz: Maybe, if he’s not tied too closely to Harris and keeps his popularity.
Buttigieg: No. Both for being gay (sad but true) and he just doesn’t have the resume yet. Maybe VP or Chief of Staff.
Fetterman: No. Agreed that he’s too much of a character.
Shapiro: I’d like him to have another term as Governor. We need him where he is, but I’d vote for him if he chose to run.
Newsom: No, he couldn’t win. He’s too “Hollywood.”
The rest I just don’t know. I don’t trust Beshear and Moore and I’m not sure why.
My opinions:
12: Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor) - Great guy to hang out with, but not really all that great in the national stage spotlight
11: Josh Stein (North Carolina Governor) - Don’t know him
10: Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor) - Has a chance to rise to the national stage
9: Gavin Newsom (California Governor) - Like him, but lots of people don’t like a CA Dem
8: Raphael Warnock (Georgia Senator) - Good possibility. Good on TV. Good personality. Generally liked
7: Wes Moore (Maryland Governor) - Don’t know him. The opposition would have the slogan “No more Moore”
6: Ruben Gallego (Arizona Senator) - Don’t know him
5: John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator) - Has the appearance of a doofus
4: Kamala Harris (former VP) - Uninspiring.
3: Pete Buttigieg (former Secretary of Transportation) - Too boring
2: Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor) - Good possibility. Confident. Appeals to many demographics
1: Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor) - Good possibility. Strong on TV. Known to some degree nationally. Jewish aspect could hurt
Gay? Jewish? Female? I don’t think so.
But I’m really glad they’ve brought 2028 up. It’s not too soon.
Turn-off to whom exactly? If you’re talking about right-wingers, then that doesn’t matter because these people would not vote for any Democratic candidate regardless. If you’re talking about those in the center, we’ve seen how many ended up voting for the Orange Turd anyway despite all the obvious signs that a rock would’ve been preferable. I no longer give a rat’s ass whether a democratic candidate worth a damn can appeal to “centrists”. Harris bent over backwards to appeal to them, and we saw how that turned out.
We need an actual leftist candidate to run on the Democratic side to actually get left-wing voters out and motivated and AOC is one of the few who can galvinize people. Let’s also not forget that many New York voters in her district who voted for Drumpf voted down-ballot for her as well. Make of that what you will.
Not sure how I made that mistake but thanks for catching it.
I expect to see someone less MAGA than Walker running against Ossoff. Kemp is indeed the most likely opponent given he is term limited from serving a consecutive third term.
For some reason- likely Gaza and his religion- he was roundly nixed here as a Veep choice.
Good way to give Vance or whoever a real landslide.
So did Nixon., So did trump. Even Biden did.
Maybe that’s what we need- charisma.
Gay? Sad but true. Someday.
Jewish? Also sad but true, but could be a veep. Someday.
Female?- not true at all.
The odds for the next batch of candidates are in. The number to the right of the candidate means how much you’d win on a $100 bet. On a site called Oddschecker we have:
- JD Vance +275
- Josh Shapiro +1550
- Gavin Newsom +2100
- Pete Buttigieg +2400
- Gretchen Whitmer +2800
- Ron DeSantis +3100
- Mark Kelly +3300
- Tim Scott +3300
- Andy Beshear +3500
- Donald Trump Jr. +3500
How long in advance of 2008 was Barack Obama a “household name”?
It used to be, giving a dynamic keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention pushed someone close to the front of the line. Does anyone even remember the keynote speech(es) from 2024?
I’m an outlier in my occupational class since I could profile eight of them in neutral ways. Mark Kelly is impossible to picture without looking him up. I did but no one else would.
This thread is starting to sound like a KKK meeting. Apparently, the way to stop Republicans from treating minorities unfairly is to treat them unfairly ourselves, thus denying the Republicans the chance to do so. It’s brilliant! /s
(not meaning to pick on ThelmaLou specifically, lots of others have said similar things)
Electability is the most important thing. And being realistic.
I’d buy Beshear or Whitmer at those prices.
never mind
Sorry, but this is the time to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Is it right? No, no it’s not. Is it an accurate reflection of the realpolitik of the US right now (and very likely in 2028)? Yes, yes I think it is.
In other words, our calculus is that we’d rather have someone male, WASPy, and white who can win and will work to protect the rights of those who don’t look/act/believe like him vs. someone who doesn’t look/act/believe like him and would likely lose. Maybe we’re wrong and if we are, it will be apparent sometime in late 2026/early 2027 - at which point most of the people here will enthusiastically fall in behind that candidate.
I love me some AOC. If we want a “rock star” candidate who also has actual political experience, she’s the one. I’m not sure she’s going to be able to sell herself to Middle America, and she’d probably be wiser to wait a few cycles and get some more experience. But if she wants to try her luck in Iowa, I’ll be very interested to see how that goes.