Rightly or wrongly, because of what you say, I have felt free in this thread to discuss candidates who aren’t doing well in the polls but seem like they have a reasonable chance of becoming front-runners one day.
As discussed by others, Harris seems an unlikely nominee despite being the current polling front-runner.
Yes and no. After Obama’s 2004 convention speech, I, like so many others, wondered aloud why he couldn’t be the nominee (instead of the capable yet bone dry Kerry.) We were primed for his eventual candidacy that day.
Whover wants to be the next nominee needs to start making noise, and soon. So far only Pritzker and Newsom have raised their national profiles. Beshear, Ossoff, Whitmer, Shapiro et al. will find themselves with single digit support heading into the primaries, with a quick exits to follow unless they can garner some real attention. Harris? I think most folks don’t have much hope in running the loser from the last election. Not at all her fault, really, but I think her moment has come and gone.
I don’t know about Beshear or Shapiro, but I don’t think Whitmer is (or will be) a serious candidate. I’ve liked her governance, but find her a bit cringey, and one would think at this lame duck stage of her governancy, she’d be making a few more waves nationally if she were seriously considering running for president. And Ossoff is busy fighting for his Senate life. I actually think he’s starting to make some noise nationally though. I’ve been seeing a lot of him on my Threads feed lately, people sharing campaign stops of his mostly, but he’s getting some notice outside of Georgia. The nickname Senator My Boo seems to have stuck. Nicknames and followings outside of one’s consitutency are a good sign.
That seems like the right choice to me. Who cares how candidates are polling nationally now? That’s just going to be about name recognition.
The party leaders gave him that slot because they saw him as a promising up-and-coming type, of course.
Similarly, in 1988, Bill Clinton was given a prime-time speaking slot on the opening night of the DNC; he was supposed to talk for 15 minutes, but went for more than half an hour (and was widely criticized and mocked for doing so).
Three-plus years later, when Clinton started seeking the presidential nomination, I admit, the first thing that came to mind for me was, “the guy who gave the really long speech?”
He redeemed himself with an appearance on the Tonight Show shortly thereafter, demonstrating his charm and communication skills. By showing humility about the speech, he was able to overcome any mockery.
Truly, in my opinion, when we think of this level of verbal skill these days it’s Buttigieg. But I agree that he needs to try for a governorship.
Yes, the speech really helped, no doubt. But not many heard it.
The people he needed to hear it, heard it, and that he passed their test, counted later. That in itself is part of what has changed in 20 years.
On a slightly different tack, who can we all agree definitely seems to be at least seriously testing the waters for a run? I’m pretty sure Newsom, Ro Khanna, and Buttigieg are all in. AOC certainly isn’t out. Pritzker seems very interested; he, Shapiro and Ossoff all have re-election races this fall, the results of which will say a lot about their viability. Harris has the name recognition to put off the decision for a while. Whitmer doesn’t seem to be running.
I agree that it’s likely for Pritzker to run. As I noted a day or two ago, he’s currently running against the same Republican candidate whom he trounced four years ago. Barring something unforeseen happening in Illinois in the next six months, Pritzker should win re-election pretty handily.
A problem with Pritzker, though, is that his elections have been won “handily” in the absolute sense, but not really in the Democrat-in-Illinois sense. He’s never quite hit the 55% mark. He didn’t get as big a percentage of the vote as either Clinton or Biden, and only barely beat Harris in one of his two elections. He could really use a landslide this fall to strengthen his case.
Khanna isnt even polling 1%. In other words- nobody has heard of him.
Yes, but he is going on any podcast that will have him. I think he’s trying to set himself up as the left’s Plan B if AOC doesn’t run. And his leading role in the fight to release the Epstein files certainly isn’t going to hurt him.
Are you comparing the vote percentages of Pritzker for governor VS. Harris for president?
It’s not a direct comparison, of course, but I think it’s reasonable as a rough guideline. There are some people who will vote for basically any Democrat over basically any Republican, and there are a lot of those folks in Illinois. Certainly, Pritzker got those votes. But if that’s all the votes he’s getting, then he doesn’t have much hope in a Presidential election.
Yes. And to be clear, it’s not a direct comparison, since Illinois elects governors in Presidential midterm years.
I’d never heard of him until the post in this thread just now. Anything could happen, but I think he has zero chance.
Ruben Gallego. Making noises about running and apparently visiting the places someone running should visit.
In 2028, at least, but in 2032? Who knows.
Yes. I’m glad to be aware of him.