We’re talking in the context of knowing how many prizes and how many tickets are left. It is possible, in theory, in that scenario for expected value to be higher. To use a simplistic example, if your state’s website says nobody has won the $10,000 jackpot on the $1 game, and there are 5000 tickets remaining well then, yeah, your expected value is higher. For the life of the game, of course your expected value is going to be lower than what you pay for the ticket. But if you know the state of the game, it is possible for it to be higher.
Ah, OK, right then. Of course, that would still have to be quite the operation since they’re physically scattered (unlike being able to simply pick number combinations).
One last number for the OP. Assuming a 1 in 5 chance of winning any kind of prize in the scratch off, the chances that the OP could buy15 tickets and not have a winner is 3.5%, or one in about 28. So the OP was a bit unlucky in this trial, but nothing like astronomical odds.
Oops. Looks like the OP did win $2, and that was more than just one number in my post. 
But that just means that they are paying out the stated payoff ratio, such as 15:1, as a whole. If they stopped as soon as the large prize amounts were won, the effective payout rate would be better than stated on the ticket.
I worked a part-time job accounting for pull-tabs, those little tickets sold in bars, and that’s the real rip-off because they replace the bucket of pull-tabs* before they’re all sold* so the large prize amounts are often not even paid out.
I play Powerball occasionally, but I view the $2 I spent on a ticket as an entertainment expense to fantasize about winning the big jackpot. Even if I bought a ticket every time it came up, I’d be spending weekly about what someone does on a Starbucks drink ($4) which people do multiple times a week. I’ve known ‘broke college student’ types who would find themselves facing a weekend with paltry cash in their pocket who’d spend what they did have on instant lottery tickets, figuring they either make enough money to hit bars (or whatever) for the weekend, or they’re broke and just stay at home.
What the OP is doing shows a serious lack of appreciation for the numbers, though. If you buy a bunch of tickets, odds are you lose money.
I see your problem here. You are simply not playing the scratch tickets properly. You need a system.
Send me $100, and I will send you foolproof instructions on how to beat the lotteries, scratch tickets, etc. For an extra $50, I’ll tell you how to be a winner in the casino as well.
OK, I’m feeling generous, so here’s the answer… For FREE!
- Each week, get together $20 for scratch tickets. Ideally, use small bills, change, basically what you won’t miss.
- Put the $20 in a box. Keep the box somewhere out of sight/mind, like your sock drawer.
- Every other week, take out $5. YOU HAVE WON! Celebrate - spend this $5 on anything you like.
- Once every two months, take out $20. WHOOOO! Nice win!
- Once each year, empty the box. You should now have about $670. YOU ARE A BIG WINNER!
Alternatively, you could do this for 20 years. Then you’d have a nice win of over $13,000, and that’s IN ADDITION to your wins EVERY OTHER WEEK and EVERY OTHER MONTH.
Yeah, looking at the CA scratchers site, they list all winners for the Classic Poker game I usually buy two tickets for.
Ticket 1 = $15 winner, Ticket 2 = Free ticket (or $5)
The top prize is $75,000, 20 winners total. Number won = 2. Remaining 18.
Now even if I turn in these tickets and buy three more, that $75,000 prize is 1 in 1,211,720. MUCH better odds than Lotto, but still WAY too high to think I’ll get that ticket.
As far as other amounts, there’s still 627,352 $15 winners left. The odds for a $15 payout is 1 in 27.
So, brovlove, that 1 in 27 is what I think sells it to people. The odds are good BUT not guaranteed.
I think you’re giving people far too much credit in analyzing odds. I think most people just see the cost of a ticket and the amount of a potential grand prize. You obviously must give the rat some cheese every once in awhile to keep them coming back, but I doubt people are explicitly looking at odds and being swayed much by them.
1 in 27 is good odds? Is this common core math?
Under my foolproof system, odds are 1:1 that you get $670 EACH and EVERY year.
How much will that cost me?
For this one weird trick? Normally about a hunnerd dollah. But for you, free. Just scroll to post #88 my friend.
Exactly. I buy two scratchers every two weeks for fun, but my jar of change gives me a better payout-- last time I cashed that in it was over $60! Bought a nice dinner.
Let’s not be too hard on the OP. After all, lottery tickets figure large in funding my own retirement plans.
Texas didn’t have scratch-off lottery cards when I lived there. But during a visit back in the 1990s, they had them then. And I read in the newspaper that this one Einstein working in a convenience store in a small town in the Panhandle figured at least one of the tickets he was selling just had to be a big winner. So he started scratching all of them off, intending to pay for them with the loot from that big winner, which just had to be in there somewhere. He went through all of them but didn’t win much. So he called the police and reported he’d been robbed, the bandits making off with all the lottery tickets. Then the police looked in the garbage out back and found all the scratched-off tickets.
During our visit to New York City in 2012, there was a newsstand next to our hotel on the Upper West Side. We bought a couple of $1 scratch-offs for fun but didn’t win anything. The clerk urged the wife to go ahead and buy one more, he guaranteed it would be a winner. So we bought it, she scratched it off, and it was a $5 winner! Now, how did the clerk know that? We never figured out if that was a coincidence or he was able to rig it somehow.
There is a gambling monster that has enslaved her, and I call him Gamblor!
Or she’s addicted.
Of course the problem with trying to exploit flaws in scratch offs is that you have to some how look over the available tickets and choose the probable winners. Is that even possible? I don’t play the lottery, but I’ve noticed what look like scratch off vending machines in supermarkets. If that’s the only way my state ¶ sells them then cracking the game is useless since you have no control over the tickets dispensed.
The first link talks about the possibility that organized crime is partnering with ticket sellers to launder money. They could pick through a large amount of tickets to choose the winners and sell the losers to regular customers. Even if their chances of winning were only 60%, apparently it would be a reasonable cost to launder their money. Something like that from what I remember of the article.
ETA: And the second link wasn’t about scratch tickets - it was about calculating when and how much to pool to (relatively) ensure payback for a lottery that capped max payout at $2 million and increased the odds of the lower prizes when the top one wasn’t claimed.
I am able to read and knew what each link was about.