In today’s news, world oil prices hitting record highs, closing at $53 a barrel. Only three weeks before the election. Conventional wisdom has it that Americans “vote their pocketbooks,” and that sharply rising gas prices spell doom for the incumbent. During these troubled times, I don’t necessarily rely on conventional wisdom any more. But do you think there’s something to this? Is there any objective measure of the effect of rising oil and gasoline prices on elections? Is Bush sunk now?
I think that sort of answers the question there, actually. But this doesn’t really admit (like most election topics) of firm answers.
Yes, I believe it will have an effect on the election, however small. Both for the fact that the incumbent gets the blame for anything that happens while he’s in power AND Bush’s association (in some voter’s minds) with the oil business.
Just out of curiosity, how much of the increase in prices would be due to the fairly constant pounding of the Gulf in the last couple of months and the fact that we’re moving into winter, thus putting a demand on things like heating oil? I guess what I’m asking is, how much of the price increase can be attributed to normal supply and demand effects?
I’m not saying that any president who ever lost an election over rising gas prices had any effect on it directly. This is a case of “fucked by the flying fickle finger of fate.”
I’ve heard that the big factors are China* buying a lot more oil as they are doing the manufacturing now; supply unreliable (Iraqi pipeline bombers, Venezuela somewhat unstabilized [by our Administration]), and only a 1% world backup of oil available, and OPEC not being able to significantly increase production.
I don’t think it will make much difference, as there is not much time, but close as the race is, it could tilt the election. Ie, .05% of the votes change in certain places and a different guy wins.
If it’s real as it may be, we get a lovely depression or stagflation, but the effects get worse over time, not before the election.
I guess this means the tin foil hat brigade will have to think of a new conspiracy involving gas because the one about Bush getting his oil buddies tolower gas prices right before the election so more people will vote for him ain’t coming true.
I heard on the news today that Kerry is calling this a middle class tax increase, which seems like a good way of spinning it to attach Bush’s strength. It’s not directly Bush’s fault, but if he had been a bit more proactive in pushing better fuel economy, the demand might have decreased and thus the pressure on prices.
I wouldn’t necessarily blame the cost of gas right now on Bush… except in the sense that the various energy cartels are no doubt feeling pretty safe in screwing the general public, secure in the knowledge that Bush won’t lift a finger to stop them, slow them down, or otherwise admonish them.
I WISH the price of gas would swing the election, though. Normally, gas prices spike in the summer, then drop in the fall. Instead, they spiked… plateau’d… and are rising AGAIN…
Admittedly, getting rid of Bush would not necessarily stop this.
But getting rid of Bush would be nice in and of itself…
Well, the republicans sure have a lot of ads running saying how the democrats are always raising gas taxes. I think the idea is for people to associate the higher gas prices with the democrats.