I don’t believe Gates is much of a visionary at all. He has stated in interviews that he never foresaw the viability of the GUI interface and felt the command line interface would continue to be the way people would interact with their computers. He said afterward that the GUI was so obvious that he “had a hard time keeping a straight face”. He also stated that he never saw the internet coming. He has at times forecast that voice recognition software would be the next big thing (and that Microsoft would ship theirs before Apple did) and lately he’s been predicting some sort of tabletop computing where people would be able to manipulate files and photos and so forth on the top of coffee-table-like devices.
What Gates did do was respond quickly and effectively once it became apparent that things like the GUI and the internet were going to become a big deal, and he was subsequently able to capture the market on both because of the widespread hold he had gained upon the PC customer base.
Which brings us to Gates’ real accomplishment - acheived largely through a combination of good luck and his mother’s business connections - which was to write and maintain ownership of the OS that would be run on IBM’s personal computers. Because of IBM’s stolid image and reliable reputation among the public, the vast majority of PC buyers flocked to IBM’s computers rather than to the more whimsically named “Apple” and/or other marginal computer makers. And because Gates retained the right to market his OS to other computer makers who were manufacturing clones of the IBM PC, his software, DOS, became the industry standard and made Gates an enormously wealthy man.
And of course, once he finally realized that the GUI was what the public wanted, Gates put Microsoft to work developing the software that would become Windows and which would require several efforts to get right, and he virtually turned his company on a dime with the advent of the internet and created Internet Explorer. But IE and Windows, both being DOS-dependent, were crappy programs and they remained so for a good long time, their success being due solely due to the fact that Microsoft’s DOS operating system ran most of the PCs in operation, again due to the widewpread acceptance of IBM computers and its clones.
Jobs, on the other hand, recognized the significance of the graphical user interface from the instant first he saw one in operation at Xerox PARC and it was largely what made the Macintosh the computing phenomenon that it became. Jobs purchased George Lucas’ software company and grew it into Pixar, which became an enormous success thanks to his initial guidance. He single-handedly turned the music business on its ear with the iPod, the smart phone business on its ear with iPhone, and now the iPad is a huge success and Apple can’t keep up with the demand for them.
Some people like to think that Jobs creates products and then persuades people that they want them. I’d say he envisions products that people will want and then builds them in such a way as to maximize their appeal and functionality, with attractiveness and ease of use playing a key role in each.
Both are brillant and extraordinary men and superb CEOs. But IMO there’s simply no question that Jobs is not only the most visionary of the two, but perhaps even the only visionary of the two.