[QUOTE=John Mace]
Please show me where I’ve said everyone is wrong but me. I disagree with RTF’s analysis, and I’ve given reasons and cites, but XT seems to be agreeing with what I say. Further, the plan which I have consistently advocated wrt to our troops in Iraq is pretty much what the concensus opinion of the Democrats seems to be forming around-- a phases withdrawl starting sometime early next year.
[/QUOTE]
Thats pretty close to what I actually advocate…a phased withdrawl with a gradual turning over of responsibilities over to the Iraqi’s (or maybe NATO, the EU, the Arab League or little green fairy-children) while the US goes into a more and more defensive posture. I’m sorry my above post was confusing…I meant it to be ANOTHER unpalatable scenerio in a host of them. Even the one I advocate is unpalatable to be honest…all roads seem bad, but they aren’t EQUALLY bad IMHO.
[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
I’ve skimmed the article, but I don’t see where any experts opined on how Iraq would fare under some combination of Syrian and Iranian rule.
[/QUOTE]
Should be a no-brainer, at least from the Iranian perspective (not sure about Syria). The two countries fought an incredibly brutal war for nearly a decade…and there are some VERY hard feelings still. Just because Iran is Shi’ite and the majority of Iraqi’s are, doesn’t mean they love OR trust each other…they most certainly don’t. Sure, the war was under a Sunni-Ba’athist regime…but some things transcend even religion.
There is a big difference between cooperating with Iran (from the Iraqi’s perspective) and being under their thumb…at least thats my own impression. Maybe Tam will wander in and give us his take. I’d be VERY surprised though if he said the Iraqi’s would be happier being dominated by Iran/Syria than they are under the US/Coalitions thumb. Certainly the Sunni would go nuts, and I’m unsure how the Kurds (also Shi’ite IIRC) would react either. Badly I should think, but there I’m off the map of my own understanding of the region.
[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
Try putting it the other way around, and see if it makes sense. If you’re a Sunni Arab in Iraq, which Shi’ites would you feel less threatened by - the Sadrists and the SCIRI/Badr gang, or Assad & Co.?
[/QUOTE]
Add in another contestant…the US/Brits. If you were a Sunni Arab in Iraq, who would be the least threatening? I’d bank on the US/Brits, bad as we obviously are. There is little chance we will go about attempting to wipe out the Sunni Arab population using genocidal methods. This hasn’t always been the case however when Arab (or ME) nations took things into their own hands.
BTW, assuming for a second I’m right and your average Sunni Arab would consider the US/Brits less of a threat, in light of whats happeing in Iraq…what would that mean in terms of escallating violence IF Syria/Iran held the whip hand in Iraq? Just as an academic point to speculate on…
[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
Gotta keep your partitions straight. Tamerlane, who I think is the person you’re mainly referring to, said absolutely nothing about the prospects of an Iranian-Syrian partition of Arab Iraq in that thread. I doubt anyone else did; I don’t think the issue ever came up.
[/QUOTE]
I seem to recall he addressed the point in another thread at one time…but I’m in no shape to go hunting for it tonight. Maybe he’ll wander in here and address it again. Its always a pleasure when he comes into a thread IMHO…especially when he comes into my Total War threads and gives his thoughts. ![]()
-XT