The “grid” isn’t really a grid the way most folks seem to think it is. People treat it as this huge web that pretty much blankets the entire US and acts as a great big infinite bus electrically. The reality is that the grid is just a bunch of independent power systems that happen to have a limited number of interconnects here and there so that power can be shuffled from one area to another.
For any individual system, the numbers will be different than for the state average. It’s not all getting dumped into one big bucket. There’s lots and lots of smaller buckets all over the place, and when one bucket doesn’t have enough in it, then other buckets that have surplus dump into it.
Let’s take a fairly simple example. Suppose we have 3 power systems, operated by companies A, B, and C. Company A doesn’t quite have enough generating power, so it has a shortage. B has exactly what it needs, no more, no less. C has a surplus. If it was truly all one big grid, then C would shove its surplus onto the grid and A would take from the grid to make up its shortage. In reality, A and C aren’t connected to each other, but A, B, and C are all tied together. So, A buys from B, but B doesn’t have enough to supply what A needs plus its own needs, so B buys from C to make up the difference. The end result is that the surplus generated by C gets transferred to A, but it’s not as simple as if it all went onto a single huge grid.
What happens if the link between B and C breaks? Then B, which had enough power on its own, now is in trouble because it’s supplying not only itself, but is also shoving some power to A to make up for A’s surplus. B can’t supply enough power for A and B both, so B goes down. A doesn’t have enough power now, so A goes down too. This is basically the cascade failure that plagues the northeast every now and then.
Incidentally, a lot of the power problems in California aren’t due to there not being enough power, they are due to arguments between the bean counters on who pays for what and how electricity gets from one place to another. So even though A has a shortage and C has a surplus, if all of the agreements aren’t in place, B won’t transfer the power between A and C. A ends up without enough power, even though C has enough to make up the difference, and some of A’s customers start experiencing rolling brownouts and blackouts.
Most systems in the southwest and northeast both are generally loaded to capacity during peak times (hot summer days, when air conditioners run all the time). At any other time of the year, these systems easily generate a surplus.