[QUOTE=Der Trihs]
Not really. Organization is more important, followed by numbers. Genocides have occurred long, long before guns. And as the saying goes, an army is never outnumbered by a mob. Even a mob that’s defending itself.
[/QUOTE]
That’s an allusion to a saying, “He who has the guns makes the rules.” It applies equally well to all weapons and all times.
Vikings didn’t allow thralls to have any weapons, including knives in most cases. European peasants were forbidden to possess bows above a certain draw weight, were not allowed to have armor, swords, or spears. In some cases, even the length of staves was controlled. The further up the social ladder you went, the fewer the restrictions on arms. Yeomen for example were allowed to have stronger bows and, depending on the time and place, could have simple arms.
One of the reasons Japan was relatively peaceful during the Tokugawa era was because no one had weapons. Not just muskets, but swords and pole arms were taken away from virtually everyone who didn’t have direct approval from the top to have them. The Shogun went through a few rounds of disarming the populace to make sure there wouldn’t be any armed uprisings. While nominally peaceful, this was one of the most brutally repressive regimes in Japan’s entire history.
People have pointed to Saddam’s inability to disarm the Kurds as a reason that he resorted to chemical weapons against them rather than directly engage and take losses among his regular armed forces and security. After the first Gulf war, the availability of weapons to the various factions that he’d been keeping more or less in check led him to use more and more repressive tactics in an attempt to maintain control when he didn’t have an overwhelming armed superiority over them.
I wouldn’t dispute that organization is important, but you are again discounting the importance of weapons. It matters, it matters a lot.