Gilded Age?

Not to put too fine a point on it, but Donald Luskin, author of the book The Conspiracy to Keep You Poor and Stupid is a fund manager, not an economist. Not to impinge upon the quality of his work, but as far as I can tell from his biography, he doesn’t even have a BA. (At the same time, he has co-written a book on finance which is now out of print.)

Krugman, on the other hand, is a recipient of the Clark Medal, which is somewhat more competitive than the Nobel Prize in economics.

Furthermore, I have not seen any substantive challenges to Krugman’s position in this thread, although Cecil seems to think it somewhat overstated. (There have been claims, however, that it doesn’t matter that income has concentrated at the top of the distribution in recent years.)

I did not specifically challenge Mr. Krugman’s particular position in the articles referenced by Cecil. I merely pointed out the body of evidence that challenges Mr. Krugman’s writings (questioning of labor statistics, growth in economy).

As I also said, we could argue whether Mr. Krugman or Luskin are correct indefinitely; I just wanted to shed some light on Mr. Krugman’s credibility, furthering Cecil’s impication his view was perhaps overstated.

You don’t have to depend upon Luskin for a measure of Krugman’s bias. You can take measures such as those at
http://www.spinsanity.org/post.html?2002_06_23_archive.html
or
http://lyinginponds.com/

Interesting that there was only one post with explicit Socialist values

But I saw no posts noting the implicit zero sum wealth nor any noting the fact that we are dealing with the infinite set of positive real numbers (i.e. a bound lower limit of zero but no upper limit on wealth).

The fact that wealth can be created and that there is no (theoretical) limit on the total amount means that the distribution between top and bottom will always get wider if the economy is healthy and the attempts at income distribution via artificial means (socialism, taxes, etc) is not overwhelming.

Although i have no data for this, is it possible that another thing that has changed is what the rich people actually do with their money?

If the rich were to buy up all the stuff they can see, then there would be less stuff and resources for everyone else (since a country has a limited production frontier). However if the rich, instead of buying things, invested their money, then they would still have the same “worth” on paper, but the distribution of products in the economy would be vastly different. The rich would still be considered rich, but the poor would have more actual stuff.

With the far more developed financial insitutions of today, could the case be that today’s rich are more like the latter situation?

— I did not specifically challenge Mr. Krugman’s particular position in the articles referenced by Cecil. I merely pointed out the body of evidence that challenges Mr. Krugman’s writings (questioning of labor statistics, growth in economy).

Read: Some disagree with Mr. Krugman, but I will not discuss any specific examples. (Fair enough, actually: it is surely valid to point to a source of dissenting views.) Still, I might like to see a single substantive and non-trivial example of a Krugman argument shown to be “demonstrably false”. (Great Debates would be an appropriate forum for this.) Oh, and welcome to the boards, cindelicato! :slight_smile:

edct:
— For one, During the Gilded Age, even through the 1920s, the impact of all government agencies on the total US economy was minimal compared to today. In the US, federal, state and local taxes often do take more than 50% of income of the well-off.

True, when considering the distribution of economic welfare, after-tax income is the appropriate measure. I tried to get a handle on that in my calculation above. Note, though, that 2 taxes I did not consider --state taxes and social security taxes-- are regressive, in that they tax a higher share of lower incomes than higher incomes. For info on the regressivity of state taxes, see http://www.itepnet.org/whopays.htm .

— Two, income and worth are two different things. You may recall a couple of Brooklyn professors who together never made more than about $100,000 a year, but had invested in Berkshire Hathaway in the 1950s and left an estate of over $900 MILLION!

Yes, and many people win the lottery.

More substantively, inequality in wealth vastly exceeds inequality in income. Surveys of wealth by necessity cannot capture the rise of the plutocrats, but they do give an interesting snapshop of the overall population. Those interested in the wealth figures should look at “A Rolling Tide: Changes in the Distribution of Wealth in the U.S., 1989-2001”, by Arthur B. Kennickell, March 2003, which admittedly I have not read.

— The third point I’d like to make is that some surveys look at the “thousand richest” or “Top 1% or 5% of income earners” and assume that it is a static group of people. While it is true that some people are always making gobs of money, some of the people on the list hit it big one year, and 5 years later are stock boys at Piggly Wiggly. Does the name MC Hammer mean anything to you? He may be an extreme example, but he is certainly not alone; just look at a list of the top athletes and entertainers from 20 years ago and today.

I am sensing a pattern here. With all due respect to edct there is a distinction between anecdotes and data.

Whether US income mobility is high enough to render a single snapshot of the income distribution irrelevant is an empirical matter. Luckily, this issue has been examined by Krugman, among others.

Now it’s true that when you look at individuals, there will be a fair number of 21 year olds who work through college, then get a real job when they’re in their thirties. But that’s not what we think about when we think of income mobility. When whole families are considered however, US income mobility is shown to be modest. From Krugman (1998):

“In reality, moves from the bottom to the top quintile are extremely rare; a typical estimate is that only about 3 percent of families who are in the bottom 20 percent in one year will be in the top 20 percent a decade later. About half will still be in the bottom quintile. And even those 3 percent that move aren’t necessarily Horatio Alger stories. The top quintile includes everyone from a $60,000 a year regional manager to Warren Buffett.”

Finally , the claim that Krugman has not considered conservative arguments against taking income distribution data seriously is false: he explored them in detail in his book, Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in an Age of Diminished Expectations.