Everything about Trump is reprehensible to me. Everything. That said, there is a part of me that really hopes he wins. So much so, that I am even thinking of voting for him.
Here’s the thing: I think Hillary is OK. I am not that happy with her and I could easily name people who would be better IMHO, but she is acceptable. My number one problem with her is the likely consequences of her becoming POTUS. If Hillary becomes POTUS, I would be willing to bet money right now that the Republicans will have wave elections in 2018 and 2020. Due to the Republican Wave in 2010, they were able to build in a significant advantage using redistricting that all but guarantees they will hold the house of representatives for a generation. If Hillary (the most unpopular Democratic candidate in history) wins, this advantage will most likely be further baked into our system. And for what? What can Hillary do in the next 4 years besides give us a Supreme Court Justice or two (I admit, this is very important)? Most likely, not much. The current Republican obstructionism is not going to go anywhere. Washington is broken and they cannot get anything done.
What about Trump? What are the consequences of him becoming President? I believe it will be bad, but most likely not as completely terrible as his rhetoric promises. He will most likely (IMHO) not be able to build a wall; too many people of both parties are against it. He probably won’t be able to stop Muslims from entering into the US; there are millions of Islamic business travelers and students that come to the US every year and the outcry and consequences would be huge if he tried to cut this off. He could screw us over internationally, but it is hard for me to believe the worst case scenarios are likely. The economy has inertia that he could damage, but how much can a President really affect this? Our society has some serious inertia and things don’t, cannot, change that quickly. Right? Most likely, he will be a blustering fool that talks a lot, offends a lot, but is unable to really change a lot due to the extreme nature of his proposals and peoples distaste for them. I just can’t believe that congress will work with him wholeheartedly and I also believe the Democrats will take the senate anyway in 2016 putting a check on his actions.
But what about the potential positive consequences of a Trump presidency? I really believe that instead of Republican waves in 2018 and 2020 we will have Democratic waves. In fact, they potentially could be large enough to re-balance the house with the post-2020 census redistricting (50.4% of votes in 2012 house races were cast for Democratic candidates, but they only won 46% of the seats). Not only that, but I believe a victorious Trump could destroy the Republican party as it now stands (something I greatly desire) while a defeated Trump will not have much of an effect. I have a lot of views where I align with a stereotypical conservative, but there are only two chances that I will vote for the current Republican party: slim and fat. They are just too ideologically crazy for me to ever consider supporting any of their candidates. But if the Republican party was forced to rebuild itself after being destroyed by a Trump victory? Maybe they could regain some sanity. Put up some candidates that are closer to Republicans of old. Hell, at this point Reagan would be a breath of fresh air! Maybe, in the long run, it could be a good thing both for the country as a whole and for bringing the conservative party back toward the mainstream if Trump wins. You know, maybe get rid of some of this partisanship?
The threat of Trump goes beyond him merely being a bad President. He could actually damage our system by doing illegal things and then challenging someone to do something about it. Since the only real remedy in our system is impeachment, that’s a serious problem. The only positive thing that might come out of a Trump Presidency is that we’ll probably introduce new ways of punishing Presidents who are out of line short of removing them from office.
I also don’t think Clinton’s going to cause wave elections. 2018 probably will be because it’s a brutal map for Democrats, but I don’t think having Trump as President mitigates that very much. Plus Clinton, as she herself points out, is very popular when doing her job and less popular when running for a new one. She’ll probably be much more popular running for reelection than she is now assuming she does a good job and keeps her nose clean.
I too, harbor a certain amount of schadenfreude at the idea of Trump winning, because I truly believe he can only win if Democrats match his stupid, which they seem determined to do. So if he wins, it’s all their fault and I will truly enjoy the, “Will Democrats ever understand why they lost?” thread.
What I won’t enjoy is Trump destroying the Republican Party and doing severe damage to rule of law.
How about imagining a Republican Congress and (in name, anyway) President, in 6 months? Who do you think he’d nominate to the SC? How many executive orders could he get away with before he’s stopped? What other worldwide effects would his compete lack of a filter have? How many respected news organizations would he ban from the press corps because he didn’t like their reporting? How many other heads of state would even begin to take him seriously, let alone trust him? (And, btw, how will it happen that he’ll destroy the party and they’ll sweep to victory in the next election?)
I’d be worried a lot more about the immediate future than some election down the road.
His central argument is sound though. You’re going to win elections and lose elections. Since you can’t win them all, it’s best to win when you have a good hand and lose when you have a bad hand. Would Democrats be better off today had John Kerry won in 2004? Not very likely. They would have lost huge in 2008 and probably 2012 as well and wouldn’t be in great shape for 2016 either.
If Trump wins, the GOP is in big trouble. This is definitely one election it’s better for us to lose. Worrying about SCOTUS appointments and executive orders that can be undone is missing the big picture.
As pointed in another thread, wanting your opponent to win because you expect that the opponent will fail and that then it will become “our turn” to be wishful thinking.
Domestically he probably won’t be able to do too much harm, since congress can keep him in check, (although he unfortunately won’t be much help in keeping a Republican Congress in check). I am far more concerned about foreign policy where he can have a much freer hand, and where his swaggering, bullying, attitude towards negotiation and admiration of dictators could cause serious harm.
You know, you may be right in terms of major policy proposals. Trump may not be able to have Mexico build a wall, or prevent Muslims from immigrating. But I’m at least as worried about the small scale, day-to-day impact that he will have as I am about the big changes.
Fox News has already set a tone and created an atmosphere that celebrates ignorance and bigotry. Fortunately, its influence has not been universal, but there are definitely people who feel that their ignorant, bigoted opinions are justified when they see them played out nightly on the T.V. news. Now imagine if it’s the President of the United States who says these things and adopts that tone. How many Muslim, Jewish, transgender and female Americans will suffer because of things that President Trump says? How much subtle bigotry will they experience through bullying, being denied jobs and educational opportunities, being made to feel oppressed in their own neighborhoods? Maybe he won’t be able to keep Muslims out, but with his influence will they be able to build a mosque, go to school or work in appropriate religious attire, or live in the neighborhood of their choice? How much violence against minorities will be sanctioned? How much tilting of the justice system? How much sexual assault? How many financial shenanigans?
Maybe the Democrats would be swept in after a Trump Presidency. But what if the truly ugly Trump rhetoric creates a truly ugly America? How are we going to regain sanity and bipartisanship after four years of a President who supports and encourages individuals to treat each other with such contempt?
Just a few things to think about before you cast your vote for Trump.
It’s extremely reckless to hope someone gets elected in order to do a terrible job thus hurting his party, BUT NOT HURTING THE COUNTRY. There’s no magic bullet to make the Republicans go away, and it’s not worth risking the whole country to try and find one.
Exploiting and normalizing them. Just as there is a huge difference between an America in which people feel free to publicly abuse and mistreat LBGT Americans, and one in which bigotry still exists, but the public face of the country is tolerance and acceptance, there is a difference between an America in which we know that some people have racist and anti-Muslim views, but we still hold non-discrimination as a societal value, and one in which those views are publicly pronounced by the highest authority.
My fear is that whether or not a President Trump could get his policies enacted into law, he can make them the common values of the country, with devastating consequences. Under those circumstances, whether the President who follows is a Democrat or a Republican is a secondary consideration.
Thanks all for talking me down, you are right. The dangers of a Trump Presidency are real, far reaching, and could do serious long lasting harm to both the country and our society. I still though don’t feel good about Hillary and do think that Paul Ryan or somebody is going to sweep in in 4 years and have enough of a mandate to dissemble social security, the department of education, or the EPA. I also wish the extreme ideology of the Republican Party would soften, and I see Trump as a way of forcing the issue. But maybe I am wrong about that.
That is poor logic, but what is not poor logic is wanting your guy to lose because he’d be bad for the country and party.
I was rooting against Bush in both 2000 and 2004. I was right to do so. And there have been some pretty dim bulbs who have run for the Democrats who you were better off not seeing get elected: McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, plus one who did win and shouldn’t have: Carter. None of those guys did the party any favors. GWB and Nixon were like that for us. It’s actually bad to win every election and it’s really bad to support poor candidates just because they share your views on most issues.
Except that doesn’t look likely right now. The downballot polling looks okay, probably because Clinton isn’t really convincing anyone to vote Democrat downballot who wasn’t already a Democratic voter. Trump will probably lose, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to take Congress down with him.
Now if Trump wins, that does some damage. After a loss you just say “Oh well, we’ll get 'em next time”. But once Trump wins, Trump IS the Republican party. And that’s very, very bad.
I have seen several influential Republicans not willing to vote for Trump, but for a third party. IMHO that also can help Trump win. I do think that to force the issue Trump should lose, and big, on that front I have seen that polls showed that more Republicans will vote for Clinton than Democrats for Trump.
So don’t vote for others this time, it will be like voting for the Giant Meteor. Don’t fall for it like the dinosaurs did!
