I found this interview with Fiona Hill this morning. It’s a very good piece by someone who is in a decent position to know how the invasion of Ukraine has changed things.
It’s about far more than Putin using nukes. An excellent read.
2021 borders or 2013 borders?
My opinion is that even if the Russians withdrew back to the 2021 borders, we’d lift the sanctions. They were imposed due to this invasion not the 2014 one.
Zero chance of it happening as long as Putin holds on to power.
Trump’s base will swallow whatever Trump says. But his base isn’t big enough to make him President. Trump needs to get votes from outside his base and his chances of getting those is shrinking.
I really hope that no matter what he does, as long as Putin stays, so do the sanctions. And Russians need to be convinced of that.
I think that this is really important. I have no problem seeing Ukraine eventually falling (albeit with an ongoing resistance perhaps), an occupied Ukraine, becoming part of a new status quo, and that just sliding into the background noise, and government and business eventually deciding “hey, why not just go back to doing whatever business with Russia we were doing before?”
That would be an appalling tragedy.
Another outcome I can see is a Ukraine that feels abandoned by the west, and ends up resentful and distrustful of, and despising us.
Missed the edit window:
And the Ukrainians are screwed for the rest of their lives. Even if Russia completely withdrew, magically, right now, the lives of the Ukrainians will never be the same again. And we let it happen
I…don’t think that will happen. I think Ukraine realizes the position the west was in. While they may and probably do feel resentment that NATO kicked the can on admitting them, it was only since 2019, IIRC, that they actually qualified, and the fact they had an ongoing internal rebellion (even if it was Russia that pretty much was keeping that going…without Russian aid and intervention Ukraine would have stomped that a while ago) meant there was zero chance it would happen.
I think what Ukraine sees is that the US and NATO, as well as several other western nations and allies have sent direct, tangible assistance, as well as pushed for sanctions. As long as no one backs down on the sanctions while Russia occupies Ukraine I think the majority of Ukrainians will not be resentful.
JMHO based on some of the stuff I’ve read. If I were from the PRC, however, I think I’d worry, as I’ve heard some ugly comments about some of the stuff China has pulled. I’m not sure how much good will India is getting by staying on the fence either, but China seems to have really pissed off a segment of Ukrainians with their social media commentary, though how large a segment that is I don’t know. The fact that the PRC told their people not to display their national flag is, I think, a good indication that they, at least, take the threat seriously…as little as they give a shit about their people abroad, anyway. The contrast to folks from Taiwan displaying their flag proudly and getting their folks out without major issue is a good contrast on this.
I suspect that the political and legislative set will see that.
But what about the average middle and lower classes who, in the best of times, are probably not the most politically astute (think of what we dopers are not) and now, in their worst of times, are watching their towns and cities being crudely yet systematically pulverized with their lives changed/ruined forever? All the while the most fortunate, powerful nations (as an aggregate) on earth apparently do nothing ( I’m suggesting that this is their perception btw).
Those folks are the majority and probably couldn’t give a damn about the niceties and intricacies of NATO policy and international law.
I fear that they could be the resentment counterparts to war-on-terror survivors who become terrorists themselves. I fear that there will be a significant hearts-and-minds cost to the west from this.
It might work out that way. Certainly, there is an element in the Ukrainians social media that resents the west not stepping in, though it seems to be a minor number, at least from what I’ve read (I honestly have no direct idea as I am not even nominally part of this community, nor do I know anyone who is). If they do…they do. To an extent, we deserve it, at least a little. I don’t think there is really anything more we could do at this point, as anything we do actively risks all-out war. But…more could have been done in the run up to this. And I think, if Ukrainians blame us, that will be the focus. Why did some countries hesitate to send them aid? I mean, what would it have cost them? Why weren’t more countries on board with laying out the sanctions that would take effect if Russia invaded? I honestly don’t see an answer to that. And why are some countries still on the fence, when they could make a huge difference right now… or a few days ago…in getting Russia to back down? Whether these sorts of questions or thinking are productive or even reasonable/possible, I can see why Ukrainians would or could be thinking this stuff…and resenting us and others for it, for their losses and the losses of their loved ones. We just have to suck it up, take it and do what we can to help as much as we can. And keep the pressure and pain on Russia and their economy. We also need to be pushing those countries on the fence to take a side and decide where they stand…one way or the other. Certainly, any country trying to assist Russia in mitigating the sanctions should be equally punished. IMHO and all.
Putin is going to see anything we do or don’t do as provocation, if he wants to.
I’d rather we save some life if we can.