That’s the thing the gold bugs overlook: I don’t think the world could go back to specie currency, except maybe at a few percent of today’s gross world product. IOW, if the economy collapsed to that extent, there wouldn’t be enough of a market left for gold to be useful for anything.
With 8.3 billion people on the planet, the answer to this question is undoubtedly “yes.”
And it doesn’t have to be a belief that fiat currency is a house of cards. It could simply be as a hedge against hyperinflation.
I have occasionally toyed with the idea of investing a small fraction of my savings in gold for this latter reason, but haven’t for a variety of reasons.
If gold ever drops back below a thousand dollars or two, I may buy a few ounces.
The problem with investing in gold is two-fold. First, if you buy gold from someone, that someone evidently thought that your dollars were a better deal than the gold; maybe they know something you don’t? Second, if you have gold you just have some shiny pieces of metal. If you sell the gold, it’s gone. Gold only does you any good in the brief window where the transaction is taking place. It’s inherently speculative.
I’ve read that, if you want to buy gold, that Costco is a good place to start. They sell bullion gold and silver in the jewelry case.
The other problem is that my reason for investing in gold would be as a hedge in the event of a crisis like hyperinflation.
So if I leave the physical gold with the company I’m invested in, I’m depending on them to come through for me in a crisis. And if I hold on to the gold myself, I have to worry about safely securing and storing it, along with fretting about any potential loss or theft, etc.
It’s a pretty silly belief. The United States has been issuing paper currency since 1861 and they haven’t crashed yet. You’d think after a hundred and fifty years, people would start accepting that fiat money isn’t just a passing fad.
If somebody tries to convince you that we all need to own gold because the fiat money system is going to collapse, tell them not to worry about it because the Rapture is going to happen soon and money won’t matter after that.
This is a fundamental economic principle that all the goldbugs ignore. There are two types of investments; the first is when you buy something in expectation that the item will improve in value. You buy a share of stock in a company in expectation that the company will become more profitable. You buy some seeds in expectation that you will be able to grow vegetables from them. You buy a piglet in expectation it will grow up to be a pig. You buy wood in expectation that you will be able to build a house out of it. In each case, you are anticipating that the item you bought will be improved and therefore increase in value.
That doesn’t happen with gold bullion. If you buy an ounce of gold and stick it in a drawer for ten years, it’s still going to be the exact same ounce of gold you started with. You can’t improve gold. (I guess you can turn bulk gold into jewelry but that’s not what gold investors are doing.) All you are doing by investing in gold is saying that the exact same item will have a higher price in the future than it does now. This is the second form of investment, which is price speculation.
I’ve done some gold coin stocking/trading, though not in huge amounts, just a few coins here and there. The hyperinflation hedge logic would be that, if the US economy collapses and Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation collapses the dollar, then the gold bullion would still retain its metal value in other countries. So my worthless $5000 dollars in paper currency now equals 0.00000000001 Euro, but my $5000 gold still retains its full value in Euro.
I can’t speak for the other 8.3 billion people in the World, but I consider it (in small amounts) a good diversifier in my investment portfolio. It has nothing to do with a belief or lack thereof in fiat currency.
yes, but that is true of any commodity. That fact, in itself, does not make it a bad investment.
Except what will happen to the Euro in a world in which the dollar has collapsed?
True, but gold has two advantages over other commodities. It is stable so unlike say pork bellies, I can stick it in a closet and ignore it for 30 years. Also it is compact. I could sew 10 gold coins into a money belt and hike to Canada fleeing some dystopian USA and end up with more value than the same belt filled with wheat or whatever.
Good question, I’m far from an expert in macro-economics. Roughly though, most other countries don’t have total dependency on the US as a sole-source of particular goods or trade, so global trade balances would shift between other countries. Those countries with huge investments directly in the US, such as real estate or company shares, could kiss those assets goodbye.
In the event of a total economic collapse, people will revert to barter. Someone with extra stuff might be willing to barter some of it for gold or silver, in the expectation that (whatever the current value they place on it) that value will hold reasonably steady or go up. That’s called a store of value (it’s also called speculation, which can fail). Not everyone will want gold or silver, and not everyone will have extra useful stuff to barter for it, but maybe or probably enough people will that it will be useful.
In the event of hyperinflation, you have to think about what the inflated currency can buy. Right now, one ounce of gold will buy about 1000 loaves of bread (very roughly) at $4 or so each (forgive me if that price isn’t right, I’m not the one in the house that buys bread; it’s the idea that counts). Now suppose you have 100% inflation compared to today, so that the price of bread is now $8. In order to preserve its value, that one ounce of gold should still buy 1000 loaves of bread, so if you sold the gold for currency it should bring around $8000 instead of around $4000 as it does now.
The trouble with selling gold during hyperinflation is that once you’ve sold it, it’s gone and prices are still going up. So it is in your interest to sell as little gold as you absolutely need to and to keep the rest safe. In cases like that, it’s probably better to sell some of your gold for an equivalent value of silver, which is easier to sell in smaller value quantities in order to preserve the rest of your assets.
Either of these scenarios (total economic collapse or hyperinflation) will greatly increase violent crime against anyone with assets, so if you are being prepared, you need to prepare for that as well.
Right, Plus maybe more if any of the coins are collectable. Coin dealers are you best bet- but do check Yelp ect for reviews of course.
Yes, but it should be close. Whatever you do- do not go to one of those fly by nigh “we buy gold” places.
212,500 metric tons Google says, a cube a little smaller than 23 meters on a side.
Your Uncle Pete…did he own a Parrot?
This thread reminded me that I still have a 1/4 ounce US Mint gold coin that is part of the paltry remainder of my coin collection. I’m guessing I could get about $1K from a coin dealer.
Yeah, that was my immediate feeling, also. The value of gold fluctuates, so you are probably better off keeping it (if you can afford to) and selling it when it’s at a high price. Then use the money.