Goldman Sachs betting on economy to stagnate or crash in near future...

[Dick_Dastardly]

@Leaper

Or so their chief economist says.

Any thoughts on the prediction, and/or how seriously to take it?

It’s a pretty mainstream prediction and looks pretty accurate to me, especially when you consider the employment report we got today. He’s saying we’re either going to get shitty growth or another recession and it’s hard to make an argument that he’s wrong.

Interestingly he’s blaming his prediction of slow growth on the fact that there’s so much increased regulation of the financial industry (not nearly enough unfortunately). Alan Greenspan is also pushing this line currently, most recently in the WSJ. Whether we get slow growth or a recession expect these guys and the right in general to blame the whole thing on increased regulation,/higher taxation for the top 1%,/whatever other bs meme they’re pushing. It won’t be anything to do with the fact that consumer demand has collapsed so businesses have massive existing capacity and don’t need to invest.

[YamatoTwinkie]

@Susanann

The population of the US is now over 300 million, it will be over 400 million by 2050, and over 1 billion by the end of the century.

This makes no sense. You’re expecting the population to go from 300 to 400 million in 50 years (growth of about +33%), but for the next 50 years, it jumps from 400 million to 1 billion (growth of +150%)? Why are you expecting birthrates to be so (relatively) low for the next 40 years?

[Der_Trihs]

@YamatoTwinkie

@Susanann

The population of the US is now over 300 million, it will be over 400 million by 2050, and over 1 billion by the end of the century.

This makes no sense. You’re expecting the population to go from 300 to 400 million in 50 years (growth of about +33%), but for the next 50 years, it jumps from 400 million to 1 billion (growth of +150%)? Why are you expecting birthrates to be so (relatively) low for the next 40 years?

If you look at her post it appears she blames it on immigration not birthrate.

[Dangerosa]

@Leaper

Or so their chief economist says.

Any thoughts on the prediction, and/or how seriously to take it?

I’m sitting on cash (and stocks, but I have a lot of cash right now).

I take it seriously enough to be overbalanced on cash and bonds for the near term. I may be missing a run (I have it hedged with stocks as well), but it feels safer to me for the moment.

[Grey]

@YamatoTwinkie

@Susanann

The population of the US is now over 300 million, it will be over 400 million by 2050, and over 1 billion by the end of the century.

This makes no sense. You’re expecting the population to go from 300 to 400 million in 50 years (growth of about +33%), but for the next 50 years, it jumps from 400 million to 1 billion (growth of +150%)? Why are you expecting birthrates to be so (relatively) low for the next 40 years?

300 Million at 1% growth per year gives 493 Million in 50 years and 811 Million in 100 years.

[Sam_Stone]

Population growth is the last thing the U.S. needs to worry about. People are resources. When you have more people, you can build more things, offer more services, invent more stuff.

However, that assumes that the population is growing with people who share the same values and work ethic. If the population grows because people who are sick and uneducated flood the country looking for public services and welfare, then you have a big problem.

This can be fixed with a simple reform: All immigrants are welcome, but they must post a bond equal to the cost of a trip home if they can’t make it in the U.S. Then treat them like companies treat employees - the path to citizenship requires working long enough to contribute to the pool for unemployment insurance and other government benefits. Once they’ve contributed enough, they can apply for citizenship.

For elderly people who immigrate, there’s a bigger problem - they haven’t contributed to Social Security and Medicare, but will soon start collecting it. So you need to scale those benefits to the amount of contribution made. Does the U.S. do that? We do in Canada. Your retirement benefits start very small and go up as you contribute to the system.

[elucidator]

@YamatoTwinkie

…Why are you expecting birthrates to be so (relatively) low for the next 40 years?

Gay agenda.

[Der_Trihs]

@Sam_Stone

However, that assumes that the population is growing with people who share the same values and work ethic. If the population grows because people who are sick and uneducated flood the country looking for public services and welfare, then you have a big problem.

:rolleyes: What sane person would flee to America for welfare? A nation that regards the poor as subhuman?

And “work ethic”? Are you really going to haul out the old and ridiculously bigoted stereotype about the “lazy Mexicans”? If there’s one things immigrants seldom lack it’s a “work ethic”, if anything they have too much of it. It renders them easy to exploit.

@Sam_Stone

This can be fixed with a simple reform: All immigrants are welcome, but they must post a bond equal to the cost of a trip home if they can’t make it in the U.S.

Translation: We’ll exploit you, then deport you and keep your money when we don’t need you anymore.

@Sam_Stone

Then treat them like companies treat employees - the path to citizenship requires working long enough to contribute to the pool for unemployment insurance and other government benefits. Once they’ve contributed enough, they can apply for citizenship.

And then we cheat them out of everything we offered and kick them out right? You did say to treat them like a company treats its employees…

[Captain_Amazing]

@Sam_Stone

For elderly people who immigrate, there’s a bigger problem - they haven’t contributed to Social Security and Medicare, but will soon start collecting it. So you need to scale those benefits to the amount of contribution made. Does the U.S. do that? We do in Canada. Your retirement benefits start very small and go up as you contribute to the system.

Generally, yes. To be eligible for Social Security or Medicare, generally, either you or a spouse have to have paid Social Security and Medicare taxes for at least ten years, and your benefits are based on how much you’ve paid into the system.

[Leaper]

@John_Mace

Did the OP actually read his own cite? There’s in nothing about “crashing” in there. It’s says: slow growth, or back into recession.

I admit that perhaps “crashing” was hyperbole. The “back into recession” option was the one I was equating with the word.

[Susanann]

@Captain_Amazing

@Sam_Stone

For elderly people who immigrate, there’s a bigger problem - they haven’t contributed to Social Security and Medicare, but will soon start collecting it. So you need to scale those benefits to the amount of contribution made. Does the U.S. do that? We do in Canada. Your retirement benefits start very small and go up as you contribute to the system.

To be eligible for Social Security or Medicare, generally, either you or a spouse have to have paid Social Security and Medicare taxes for at least ten years, and your benefits are based on how much you’ve paid into the system.

Technically true, but very misleading.

Although one has to work to get a SS check, one doe not have to work to get a SSI check.

SSI is available to anyone over age 65 even if they did not work a single day in their entire life. They also get Medicaid/free health care. SSI is about the same as SS, and Medicaid is about the same as Medicare. The basic SS check is about the same amount as the basic SSI check.

Bottom line: Anyone over age legally living in America can get free health care and a monthly retirement check even if they never worked and never contributed to SS. They also get food stamps, and free or very low income housing.

If an old person comes to this country on his 65th birthday and is allowed to stay , then he gets to live for free for the rest of his life.

[Captain_Amazing]

@Susanann

If an old person comes to this country on his 65th birthday and is allowed to stay , then he gets to live for free for the rest of his life.

A legal immigrant is only eligible for SSI if he or she has 40 quarters of eligible work and has been in the US for at least 5 years.

http://www.ssa.gov/ssi/text-eligibility-ussi.htm

Medicaid is a state program, so there are some states where this isn’t true, but generally, a legal immigrant isn’t eligible for Medicaid or SCHIP until 5 years after he immigrated.

[Dangerosa]

@Der_Trihs

:rolleyes: What sane person would flee to America for welfare? A nation that regards the poor as subhuman?

You are aware that in much of the world there are no social services at all? For that matter, in much of the world there isn’t very much government. I’m not agreeing with Sam that we shouldn’t provide amnesty for people, but when you are starving in Somali, getting treated as sub human and fed is better than getting treated as sub human, starving, and risk being killed in war. And I’d disagree that we treat them as subhuman, myself - but that is perhaps because I have a mother in law that’s worked extensively with the Somali community and spent my college years living in the slums, feeling like my neighbors and I were not treated as sub human.

A lot of my neighbors are Hmong, Vietnamese and Somali. They fled to the U.S. for a better life. That better life DID include social services that they weren’t getting in camps. Food. Health Care. Education.

Now, these folks, the ones in my neighborhood, aren’t living here because they don’t have a work ethic. It takes years as an immigrant, but my first generation neighbors are all self sufficient. They have made THEMSELVES a better life. Although the first step to that better life involved a lot of us supporting them.

[Susanann]

@Captain_Amazing

@Susanann

If an old person comes to this country on his 65th birthday and is allowed to stay , then he gets to live for free for the rest of his life.

A legal immigrant is only eligible for SSI if he or she has 40 quarters of eligible work and has been in the US for at least 5 years.
http://www.ssa.gov/ssi/text-eligibility-ussi.htm
.

There is **NO **requirement for 40 quarters of work in order for anyone legally in the country to get SSI. As soon as an older immigrant steps foot on American soil, he can start collecting SSI monthly checks, get free housing, free food stamps, free health care. (certainly better than being poor and starving in Haiti or Africa or asia)

*WHO IS ELIGIBLE FOR SSI ?

Anyone who is:

  	aged (age 65 or older);

And, who:

  	has limited income; and
  
  	has limited resources; and
  	is a U.S. citizen or national, or in one of certain categories of aliens; 

WHAT DOES “AGED” MEAN?

“Aged” means age 65 or older. *
http://www.ssa.gov/ssi/text-eligibility-ussi.htm

[Captain_Amazing]

@Susanann

@Captain_Amazing

A legal immigrant is only eligible for SSI if he or she has 40 quarters of eligible work and has been in the US for at least 5 years.
http://www.ssa.gov/ssi/text-eligibility-ussi.htm
.

There is **NO **requirement for 40 quarters of work in order for anyone legally in the country to get SSI. As soon as an older immigrant steps foot on American soil, he can start collecting SSI monthly checks, get free housing, free food stamps, free health care. (certainly better than being poor and starving in Haiti or Africa or asia)

Read on:

When Is A Non–Citizen Eligible For SSI?

Beginning August 22, 1996, most non–citizens must meet two requirements to be eligible for SSI:

the non–citizen must be in a qualified alien category, and

meet a condition that allows qualified aliens to get SSI benefits.

A non–citizen must also meet all of the other requirements for SSI eligibility, including the limits on income, resources, etc.

Who is a “Qualified Alien?”

There are seven categories of non–citizens who are qualified aliens. You are a “qualified alien” if the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) says you are in one of these categories:

1. Lawfully Admitted for Permanent Residence (LAPR) in the U.S., including “Amerasian immigrant” as defined in Section 584 of the Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs Appropriations Act of 1988, as amended;

2. Granted conditional entry under Section 203(a)(7) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) as in effect before April 1, 1980;

3. Paroled into the U.S. under Section 212(d)(5) of the INA for a period of at least one year;

4. Refugee admitted to the U.S. under Section 207 of the INA;

5. Granted asylum under Section 208 of the INA;

6. Deportation is being withheld under Section
   243(h) of the INA as in effect before April 1, 1997, or removal is being withheld under Section 241(b)(3) of the INA;

7. “Cuban or Haitian entrant” under Section
   501(e) of the Refugee Education Assistance Act of 1980 or in a status that is to be treated as a “Cuban/Haitian entrant” for SSI purposes; or

In addition, you can be a “deemed qualified alien” if, under certain circumstances, you, your child, or your parent has been subjected to battery or extreme cruelty while in the United States.

Under What Conditions May a “Qualified Alien” be Eligible for SSI?

If you are in one of the seven “qualified alien” categories listed above, or have been determined to be a “deemed qualified alien” because you have been subjected to battery or extreme cruelty, you may be eligible for SSI benefits if you have limited income and resources and are aged, blind, or disabled and also meet one of the following conditions:

1. You were receiving SSI and lawfully residing in the U.S. on August 22, 1996.

2. You are LAPR with 40 qualifying quarters of work. Work done by your spouse or parent(s) may also count toward the 40 quarters of work, but only for getting SSI.

We cannot count quarters of work earned after December 31, 1996 if you, your spouse, or your parent(s) worked or received certain benefits from the U.S. government based on limited income and resources during that period.

  IMPORTANT: If you entered the U.S. for the first time on or after August 22, 1996, then you may not be eligible for SSI for the first five years as LAPR, even if you have 40 qualifying quarters of work.

3. You are currently on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces, or you are an honorably discharged veteran and your discharge is not because you are an alien. This condition may also apply if you are the spouse, widow(er), or dependent child of certain U.S. military personnel.

4. You were lawfully residing in the United States on August 22, 1996, and you are blind or disabled.

5. You may receive SSI for a maximum of seven years from the date DHS granted you qualified alien status in one of the following categories, and the status was granted within seven years of filing for SSI:

Refugee admitted to the United States (U.S.) under section 207 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA);

Asylee admitted to the U.S. under section 208 of the INA;

Alien whose deportation was withheld under section 243(h) of the INA or whose removal is withheld under section 241(b)(3) of the INA;

Admitted as a “Cuban or Haitian entrant” as defined under section 501(e) of the Refugee Education Assistance Act of 1980 or in a status that is to be treated as a “Cuban/Haitian entrant” for SSI purposes; or

“Amerasian immigrant” admitted under section 584 of the Foreign Operations, Export Financing, and Related Programs Appropriations Act of 1988, as amended.

IMPORTANT: You may be eligible for SSI beyond the seven year period if you are in one of these categories, and you also meet one of the other conditions (1–4) above or if you qualify for a two year extension under P.L. 110-328 enacted October 1, 2008, or up to three years under the same law if you qualify for and have shown good faith in pursuing U.S. citizenship, as determined by the Department of Homeland Security

Exemption From the August 22, 1996, Law for Certain Non–Citizen Indians

Certain categories of non–citizens may be eligible for SSI and are not subject to the August 22, 1996, law. These categories include:

American Indians born in Canada who were admitted to the United States under Section 289 of the INA; or

Non–citizen members of a Federally recognized Indian tribe who fall under Section 4(e) of the Indian Self–Determination and Education Assistance Act.

Additional Eligible Alien Categories

Victims of Severe Forms of Human trafficking: You may be eligible for SSI under certain circumstances if the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Refugee Resettlement and the Department of Homeland Security determines that you meet the requirements of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000.

Iraqi/Afghani Special Immigrants: You may also qualify for SSI for a period of six to eight months if you are an Iraqi or Afghani special immigrant admitted to the United States under P.L. 110–161 or P.L. 110–181, enacted December 26, 2007.

So unless you’re a US armed forces veteran, a victim of human trafficing or a member of a Native American tribe with a reservation on both sides of the border or are a member of a group that’s allowed to get SSI for a certain period of time (a Cuban or Haitian refugee, an Iraqi or Afghan refugee, or someone asking for political asylum), you’re required to work for at least 40 quarters/ten years before you’re eligible for SSI.

[John_Mace]

@Captain_Amazing

@Susanann

There is **NO **requirement for 40 quarters of work in order for anyone legally in the country to get SSI. As soon as an older immigrant steps foot on American soil, he can start collecting SSI monthly checks, get free housing, free food stamps, free health care. (certainly better than being poor and starving in Haiti or Africa or asia)

Read on:

When Is A Non–Citizen Eligible For SSI?

Beginning August 22, 1996, most non–citizens must meet two requirements to be eligible for SSI:

the non–citizen must be in a qualified alien category, and

meet a condition that allows qualified aliens to get SSI benefits.

A non–citizen must also meet all of the other requirements for SSI eligibility, including the limits on income, resources, etc.

Who is a “Qualified Alien?”

There are seven categories of non–citizens who are qualified aliens. You are a “qualified alien” if the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) says you are in one of these categories:

1. Lawfully Admitted for Permanent Residence (LAPR) in the U.S., including “Amerasian immigrant” as defined in Section 584 of the Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs Appropriations Act of 1988, as amended;

2. Granted conditional entry under Section 203(a)(7) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) as in effect before April 1, 1980;

3. Paroled into the U.S. under Section 212(d)(5) of the INA for a period of at least one year;

4. Refugee admitted to the U.S. under Section 207 of the INA;

5. Granted asylum under Section 208 of the INA;

6. Deportation is being withheld under Section
   243(h) of the INA as in effect before April 1, 1997, or removal is being withheld under Section 241(b)(3) of the INA;

7. “Cuban or Haitian entrant” under Section
   501(e) of the Refugee Education Assistance Act of 1980 or in a status that is to be treated as a “Cuban/Haitian entrant” for SSI purposes; or

In addition, you can be a “deemed qualified alien” if, under certain circumstances, you, your child, or your parent has been subjected to battery or extreme cruelty while in the United States.

Under What Conditions May a “Qualified Alien” be Eligible for SSI?

If you are in one of the seven “qualified alien” categories listed above, or have been determined to be a “deemed qualified alien” because you have been subjected to battery or extreme cruelty, you may be eligible for SSI benefits if you have limited income and resources and are aged, blind, or disabled and also meet one of the following conditions:

1. You were receiving SSI and lawfully residing in the U.S. on August 22, 1996.

2. You are LAPR with 40 qualifying quarters of work. Work done by your spouse or parent(s) may also count toward the 40 quarters of work, but only for getting SSI.

We cannot count quarters of work earned after December 31, 1996 if you, your spouse, or your parent(s) worked or received certain benefits from the U.S. government based on limited income and resources during that period.

  IMPORTANT: If you entered the U.S. for the first time on or after August 22, 1996, then you may not be eligible for SSI for the first five years as LAPR, even if you have 40 qualifying quarters of work.

3. You are currently on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces, or you are an honorably discharged veteran and your discharge is not because you are an alien. This condition may also apply if you are the spouse, widow(er), or dependent child of certain U.S. military personnel.

4. You were lawfully residing in the United States on August 22, 1996, and you are blind or disabled.

5. You may receive SSI for a maximum of seven years from the date DHS granted you qualified alien status in one of the following categories, and the status was granted within seven years of filing for SSI:

Refugee admitted to the United States (U.S.) under section 207 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA);

Asylee admitted to the U.S. under section 208 of the INA;

Alien whose deportation was withheld under section 243(h) of the INA or whose removal is withheld under section 241(b)(3) of the INA;

Admitted as a “Cuban or Haitian entrant” as defined under section 501(e) of the Refugee Education Assistance Act of 1980 or in a status that is to be treated as a “Cuban/Haitian entrant” for SSI purposes; or

“Amerasian immigrant” admitted under section 584 of the Foreign Operations, Export Financing, and Related Programs Appropriations Act of 1988, as amended.

IMPORTANT: You may be eligible for SSI beyond the seven year period if you are in one of these categories, and you also meet one of the other conditions (1–4) above or if you qualify for a two year extension under P.L. 110-328 enacted October 1, 2008, or up to three years under the same law if you qualify for and have shown good faith in pursuing U.S. citizenship, as determined by the Department of Homeland Security

Exemption From the August 22, 1996, Law for Certain Non–Citizen Indians

Certain categories of non–citizens may be eligible for SSI and are not subject to the August 22, 1996, law. These categories include:

American Indians born in Canada who were admitted to the United States under Section 289 of the INA; or

Non–citizen members of a Federally recognized Indian tribe who fall under Section 4(e) of the Indian Self–Determination and Education Assistance Act.

Additional Eligible Alien Categories

Victims of Severe Forms of Human trafficking: You may be eligible for SSI under certain circumstances if the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Refugee Resettlement and the Department of Homeland Security determines that you meet the requirements of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000.

Iraqi/Afghani Special Immigrants: You may also qualify for SSI for a period of six to eight months if you are an Iraqi or Afghani special immigrant admitted to the United States under P.L. 110–161 or P.L. 110–181, enacted December 26, 2007.

So unless you’re a US armed forces veteran, a victim of human trafficing or a member of a Native American tribe with a reservation on both sides of the border or are a member of a group that’s allowed to get SSI for a certain period of time (a Cuban or Haitian refugee, an Iraqi or Afghan refugee, or someone asking for political asylum), you’re required to work for at least 40 quarters/ten years before you’re eligible for SSI.

Yeah, but you cheated by reading the entire cite and not editing to get the desired result!

[Wesley_Clark]

@Sam_Stone

Population growth is the last thing the U.S. needs to worry about. People are resources. When you have more people, you can build more things, offer more services, invent more stuff.

However, that assumes that the population is growing with people who share the same values and work ethic. If the population grows because people who are sick and uneducated flood the country looking for public services and welfare, then you have a big problem.

This can be fixed with a simple reform: All immigrants are welcome, but they must post a bond equal to the cost of a trip home if they can’t make it in the U.S. Then treat them like companies treat employees - the path to citizenship requires working long enough to contribute to the pool for unemployment insurance and other government benefits. Once they’ve contributed enough, they can apply for citizenship.

For elderly people who immigrate, there’s a bigger problem - they haven’t contributed to Social Security and Medicare, but will soon start collecting it. So you need to scale those benefits to the amount of contribution made. Does the U.S. do that? We do in Canada. Your retirement benefits start very small and go up as you contribute to the system.

I believe medicare is a flat system, as long as you paid into it for 10 years you get the same system. Social security takes your top 20 years of income and determines your benefits based on those. If you average about 10k a year in income over those 20 years, you get about $700/month in benefits. If you earned closer to 40k you get around 1800/month. Something around that range.

Immigrating to a wealthy nation is pretty hard though. I don’t think that many elderly could immigrate to an OECD nation if they wanted to. My impression is unless you are young, healthy, educated in an in demand field, have a job lined up and speak the native language, you can’t get enough points to get in.

[Susanann]

@Grey

300 Million at 1% growth per year gives 493 Million in 50 years and 811 Million in 100 years.

You can quibble all you want, but the bottom line is that The United States (going deeper and deeper into debt and becoming more and more foreign energy dependent) is losing millions of jobs because of offshoring while at the same time as it is importing millions more immigrants each year, year after year.

Those national policies are a recipe guaranteed for declining personal real income, higher unemployment, lower wages, increased spending on welfare and foodstamps, bankruptcy, and poverty.

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

2% of ~$14 trillion isn’t exactly chickenshit.

[ralph124c]

The troubling thing is…Goldman Sachs doesn’t give a shit about the USA-the country that protects their assets and their business operations. If they can make money by shorting tyhe dollar, they will do it.
With corporate friends like this, who needs enemies?