Oh, armed civilians are a definite threat to armoured forces - those annoying handguns have a tendency to get jammed into the tracks when you run over people, and it takes forever to get them out again. Much easier when you can just use a water hose.
Seriously: If each and every civilian is sufficiently pissed that they want to attack their government, of course they’ll win. If the sentiment is that outspread, the Army will suffer mass defections and the result will be a given thing - a la Ceauzescu’s downfall. You can’t even get a society to run if everyone is mad enough that they’re ready to head for the hills and become partisans.
But on a smaller scale, it just doesn’t compute: If a modern army is ruthless enough, it takes more than just handguns, numbers & courage to stand against it.
You might be able to make a stand in urban areas, where the regular army won’t be able to utilize the advantage of armour and where their better sensors don’t make that much of a difference. Think Grosnyj.
Of course, nothing will keep them from bombarding the city from a safe distance. Or from cutting off food & water. When the number of wounded start growing and the supplies start dwindling, you’d better be one hell of a leader or people will start wanting to surrender. Might be a problem to talk people in the next town into joining you, as well.
In terrain, you’ve had it. Your weapons won’t punch through armour and tanks with thermal sensors and light amplification can see & kill you at a range where your handgun only damages the paint job. Helicopter gunships fill in nicely where the tanks would rather not go. You’re outgunned and outmaneuvered. “Red Dawn” is a great movie about how NOT to fight an army.
Right, you say, we’ll attack the tank depots and helicopter bases. Mmmm - only these places will be guarded by people with machine guns in dug-in positions, with concertina wire in front and with support from heavier weapons. Anyone up for a WWI replay ? Only without artillery support, of course.
Then what can you do ? Tactically speaking, when you’re the underdog, you gather intelligence, harrass, inflict losses and delay. Of course, not having weaponry that’ll kill armoured vehicles restricts what combat you can do - nothing is more annoying than being mowed down by a pissed APC commander after ambushing the supply column he was supposed to protect. (I’ll recommend ambushing across a natural obstacle, such a s a river. Unfortunately, soldiers read maps, too.)
You can go underground and start sabotage and perhaps a bit of sniping. This can keep the conflict alive, probably for years, and you might get some political attraction and outside assistance. This is the scenario where having unregistered guns might really make a difference - though fertilizer bombs might work just as well. Anyway, this is the sort of fight that gives you a chance of survival if you’re seriously outgunned. Of course, you’ll also have to outsmart the tyrannical governemnts agents.
So, pick your scenario. I’m not saying that armed civilians are chanceless in combat, but odds against them have become steadily worse over the last 50 years.
Yes, I’ve read about the Warsaw ghetto. If people are fighting with that sort of conviction on a nationwide scale, then you’ve already won, even if they’re only armed with broomsticks. But I believe this was an exceptional case, born of utter desperation. Courage of this sort can not be counted upon.
For that matter, I’ve also read about the Afghan war. It took 10 years for what is arguably some of the worlds toughest fighters, born into a warrior culture and armed to the teeth with automatics and RPGs, to expel an Army that was nothing near what the modern American army is. And they needed considerable outside assistance to do so.
S. Norman