Does he have the brains and political skills to be a good PM? How well will he be able to work with the Bush Administration? How quickly will he end the British military role in Iraq, given its unpopularity? No matter how well he does, will the British public want New Labour out and the Tories in at the next election (no later than spring 2010)?
Given that Cameron’s strategy appears to be to prove that he’s more like Blair than is Brown, I’m not sure how much difference there would be.
It’s also hard to predict because the Conservatives have so far been criticized for failing to join issue on substantive policies while Cameron “rebrands” the party, which seems to consist of running headlong away from anything that smacks of actual conservatism.
I would guess (assuming no major changes, which will no doubt be untrue as time goes on) that at the next election Labour will lose a few seats, the Tories a reasonable amount, and gains by the Lib Dems/Greens/National parties other than the BNP.
Anyway, I think it’s going to be interesting with Brown in charge. His handling of the treasury means that down the line he’s going to end up paying for it, which could provide some interesting conflicts with whoever the next Chancellor will be (do we know that yet, btw?). Iraq-wise, I was thinking that he might wait a decent amount of time before pulling out in order not to make Tony look bad, but his “i’m going to ahem run speech” wasn’t all that complimentary. Since the U.S. will have a new leader by then, I don’t really know how he’ll get on with the lot across the pond. The U.S. government seems more characterised by the top guy than over here.
But couldn’t his bacon be pulled out of the fire by a combination of a very strong pound and what I would assume is massive windfall tax revenue from the booming markets?
Bush, even with a super-weak dollar, has managed to avoid facing the full spotlight of his and the GOP Congress’s extravagant spending by raking in huger-than-expected tax collections (not least by allowing more and more middle class people to be slammed by the AMT).
I’d imagine Brown may similarly luck out at least unless the West hits a major market correction.
No, he has been the complete idiot who has run the purse strings for the past ten years of the longest sustained growth period in British history. To be honest he isn’t a particularly glamorous politician, certainly not in the Blair style. However I’m looking forward to the first meeting between Brown and Bush - fuck Blair the toadying bastard cunt.
Brown is a huge fan of America - he has had a holiday place on Cape Cod for many years - and he is a million times cleverer than Blair. Quite probably he will only have two and a bit years as PM before Blair-clone Cameron wins a General election, but I’m looking really looking forward to his premiership.
It depends how long he’s in power for, Huerta. He would probably be able to put it off for, mm, at most one term. I think there’s inevitably going to be a backlash at some point (though admittedly I know very little about the financial world).
As I understand the British system, if no party gets a majority of seats in the Commons, they have to form a “coalition government.” (Or else the largest plurality party forms a “minority government,” but the latter is almost never done.) So if Labour and the Tories both lose seats and the LibDems gain and there’s no majority, what’s more likely – a Labour/LibDem coalition, or a Conservative/LibDem coalition?
Brains, yes, but the big question is over his politcial nous. The economy has done well over the last ten years, and rightly or wrongly Brown has been given a lot of the credit (personally I think half the secret of being a good Chancellor is the timing). That and the legendary Granita pact with Tony Blair in 1994 have made him very secure in his personal fiefdom at the Treasury, so he hasn’t had to compromise or tolerate much dissent, or moderate his brusque interpersonal manner. That’s going to have to change when he becomes PM.
To be honest you have asked in the past couple of days such silly questions as “what is the Bank of England?” etc etc etc. To posit a Tory/Labour coalition frankly says more about you than anyone else.
Perhaps you could raise a “Teach BrainGlutton about British stuff” thread?
The British political system favours two “big tent” parties. Smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats are not seriously thought of as potential governments. That makes it more acceptable (although still awkward) for one of the big two to ally with them, if circumstances demand it. Last time this happened was the Lib-Lab pact in the late seventies - not a coalition government, but concessions made by a weak Labour government to the then Liberal Party. For the Tories to make an alliance with Labour would call the whole basis of British politics into question. Who would be the opposition?
