I’m not sure if we should start a new thread or continue here. The shutdown has been temporarily averted, but a direct consequence will be an attempt to dismiss Kevin as Speaker.
Gaetz tried to bring a motion on Saturday night but the House was gaveled into recess before he could. He said on one of the Sunday shows this morning that he intends to bring a motion to vacate as soon as he can, so we’ll probably be discussing that Monday afternoon.
I have no doubt he’ll bring a motion to vacate. Kevin’s fate lies entirely in Democrats’ hands. They can help save him, help oust him, or stand back and do nothing (which will have the same effect as saving him, since a majority of Republicans don’t want to fire McCarthy).
I only see two of those as possibilities. Helping to oust him and doing nothing (voting “present”) to keep him on. I don’t see a world where Dems affirmatively vote to keep any Republican as Speaker. Gaetz is counting on the former. That’s a good enough reason, to me, to surprise everyone and do the latter.
I doubt Democrats will wring any concessions from Kevin. As desperate as he is to remain Speaker he just politically can’t overtly court the other side. So the calculus on the Democrat side of the aisle probably won’t include “what could we gain?” but probably will include “what could they lose?” if the Chaos Caucus is able to throw the whole of the House into another Speaker battle.
A contentious and public inter-party war among the Republicans will do the Rs no favors and won’t hurt the Ds much, if at all. No legislating is getting done anyway, so it won’t affect anything (except the budget talks) if the House is forced to grind to a standstill until they can agree on a new Speaker. It could be a benefit to Democrats to publicly expose the dysfunction of the other side even more than it already is known.
Really, the only downside to helping Gaetz oust McCarthy is that Gaetz is lower than slime and should never be rewarded by getting anything he wants.