Government shutdown watch fall 2023 edition

Politics & Elections
181

A fair question. Others have already pointed out the obvious:

  • They support Putin because Lord Trump likes Putin

  • They are ideologically close to Russian totalitarian dictatorship, and want to emulate it.

  • Biden supports Ukraine so they must do the opposite and support Russia.

I think mainly the third option. They don’t really have “ideologies” anymore, and most of them are too stupid to even know what that word means. They are just “anti” everything. They do also love Daddy Trump, so this position also makes them feel like they are kissing his ass, which makes them warm and tingly.

182

IIRC, back when Obama was president, a republican (I think McCain) sponsored a bill. Obama said he liked it. The sponsor then voted against his own bill only because they had to oppose absolutely anything Obama wanted. That was their sole criteria.

If you watched the recent republican debates it is clear they have no policies or coherent plans to govern.

183

Crystal clear. It’s like expecting a group of tired and cranky preschoolers to organize a new product rollout for you company. All they are capable of doing is screaming and yelling “NO!” with the occasional one shitting his pants.

184

Narrator (Morgan Freeman, of course): “The funny thing was, Mr. Obama never did like that bill.”

185

Considering his bodycount, I think it’d be more accurate to say Putin is krestnyy otets (Russian for “The Godfather”) of fascism.

186

Beau (of the Fifth Column, a very perceptive journalist) has put out his video. He points out how this means Dems actually held the line and McCarthy scored on the MAGA caucus, as he should have months ago. The votes against were a minority.

187

This latest mess shows the truth: They’re only in control for as long as the rest of the Rs allow them to be in control. If the “moderate” Republicans can actually moderate their message enough to enable working with the Democrats, the T-wing would be entirely powerless to do anything more than spew invective.

This is a big victory for actual democracy. Not enough to win the war, but certainly a big battle won.

188

Were I negotiating, here’s what I’d offer: put to a vote a rules-change, such that any 218 House signatures on a motion to bring a bill to a vote suffices makes the motion binding on the speaker. Or something like that–I’m not sure exactly how to phrase it, but it should be an official change in the rules that makes Hastert Ruling difficult or impossible.

This rule change must come to a vote and pass before Democrats will support McCarthy’s bid to maintain power.

189

That’s a discharge petition. It’s already in the rules.

190

So, no money for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. That’s a big FU to all of Europe, and shows just how much control Putin has over our congress.

191

Timing is a bit difficult to require any rule change vote first.

His Speakership is up to a vote whenever it is called to happen by a single member. That vote happens. If he’s out then there is no Speaker and no other business can be done before one is elected. Can’t get the change and then vote for him.

192

My (poor) understanding is that some parts of the government have fixed-year funding, others “no-year”. The latter can be banked and spent later, although there’s some risk of having future appropriations trimmed. And some contracts have the money set aside in part or whole up front. So whether and how any particular office is affected varies.

193

Not in the CR, but there is bipartisan support for Ukraine in the Senate, so I am confident there will be money fir Ukraine in the budget.

194

I’m not sure if we should start a new thread or continue here. The shutdown has been temporarily averted, but a direct consequence will be an attempt to dismiss Kevin as Speaker.

Gaetz tried to bring a motion on Saturday night but the House was gaveled into recess before he could. He said on one of the Sunday shows this morning that he intends to bring a motion to vacate as soon as he can, so we’ll probably be discussing that Monday afternoon.

I have no doubt he’ll bring a motion to vacate. Kevin’s fate lies entirely in Democrats’ hands. They can help save him, help oust him, or stand back and do nothing (which will have the same effect as saving him, since a majority of Republicans don’t want to fire McCarthy).

I only see two of those as possibilities. Helping to oust him and doing nothing (voting “present”) to keep him on. I don’t see a world where Dems affirmatively vote to keep any Republican as Speaker. Gaetz is counting on the former. That’s a good enough reason, to me, to surprise everyone and do the latter.

I doubt Democrats will wring any concessions from Kevin. As desperate as he is to remain Speaker he just politically can’t overtly court the other side. So the calculus on the Democrat side of the aisle probably won’t include “what could we gain?” but probably will include “what could they lose?” if the Chaos Caucus is able to throw the whole of the House into another Speaker battle.

A contentious and public inter-party war among the Republicans will do the Rs no favors and won’t hurt the Ds much, if at all. No legislating is getting done anyway, so it won’t affect anything (except the budget talks) if the House is forced to grind to a standstill until they can agree on a new Speaker. It could be a benefit to Democrats to publicly expose the dysfunction of the other side even more than it already is known.

Really, the only downside to helping Gaetz oust McCarthy is that Gaetz is lower than slime and should never be rewarded by getting anything he wants.

195

Well, no, the other downside is that they’ll likely get someone worse than McCarthy.

Anyone more sane that McCarthy won’t get the support of the Freedum Caucus, and anyone less sane is, well, less sane.

Who could the GOP put up as a candidate that the Democrats would like, but who would also want the job?

196

I did that, with full credit to you:

197

Thanks!

198

ISTM, especially after the CR, it all hinges on Ukraine funding. The far-right apparently thinks they can actually just stop the funding or at least force a huge compromise on cutting it. If they’re actually capable of that then either bailing McCarthy out of his issues or backing a unity pro-Ukraine speaker might be worth it in exchange for avoiding that outcome. Either way it ultimately depends on some Republicans being willing to vote against the far-right to ensure Ukraine funding - either in defiance of a freedom caucus backed leader who dares them to force the vote to the floor or in favor of a speaker who is opposed by the FC. I normally think the Dems would never bail out GOP leadership but the one way the FC could win is in an internal game of chicken and in that case it would be better to allow Ukraine funding to go through that to leave the GOP to their own dysfunctional devices and possibly get it caught up.

199

He has now been charged.

200

According to another article I saw, Bowman has already worked out a plea to pay $1,000 and issue an apology to the Capitol Police. He will not serve any time.